Looking for sharp football betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
NFL interception prop – Brock Purdy had an awful game with three interceptions against Carolina last Monday night. None of them seemed unlucky.
However, Purdy only threw one other pass in which the defense got a hand on the football. I use the sum of interceptions and these passes defended to predict future interceptions. For Purdy, my model predicts a 2.3% pick rate and a 53.1% chance he throws a pick at Cleveland on Sunday.
The market has Purdy under 0.5 interceptions at +106 (a 45.8% break even probability at FanDuel). There is value in Purdy to not throw a pick, especially as he faces rookie Shedeur Sanders and potential run heavy second half.
Members of The Power Rank will have access to more interception props at noon Eastern on Saturday. Use the code blackfriday for $20 off the first year of your membership; offer good until Tuesday, December 2nd, 2025 at 11pm Eastern.
NFL passing yards prop – My passing yards model is primarily based on one calculation: a quarterback’s yards per pass attempt after adjustments for opposing defenses. It knows that Baker Mayfield has been below average but the Arizona defense has been above average.
The model does not know two other factors. First, Mayfield is dealing with a left shoulder injury. Although he probably guts through the entire game, there is a higher likelihood than normal that Teddy Bridgewater plays some snaps like last week. Second, Arizona will get CB Will Johnson back for his first game since Week 9 against Dallas.
The model predicts 222 passing yards for Mayfield, and there is value in Baker Mayfield under 232.5 passing yards against Arizona.
Northwestern at Illinois, College Football Week 14 – Over on the free Dr. Bob Sports college football analysis page, Bob Stoll wrote about the weather conditions for this game in Urbana-Champaign. While it now looks like snow instead of rain, the main problem for the offenses is high wind.
Bob’s model predicts a 24-17 win for Illinois. With a total of 41 points, he notes that the total has come down to 45.5 points but not enough. There is value in Northwestern at Illinois under 45.5 points (kick off at 7:30pm Eastern).
The development of NFL quarterbacks – Brent Kollman explains that college quarterbacks line up under center on 5% of plays. The NFL has tried to adapt to this trend, as the under center rate has dropped from 68% in 2010 to 32% now.
Why doesn’t the NFL have the QB under center even less? Kollman explains that it is easier to run the ball from under center; there is a higher explosive run rate.
As a result, an NFL quarterback is expected to execute play action passes from under center. This is much harder than in college because he has to turn his back to the defense. Kollman says that this learning process can take years.
It’s worth watching all of Kollman’s video on NFL QB development, as he also has some great data on effectiveness of the run pass option in the NFL versus college football.
Betting humor – Bill Krackomberger says to Alan Boston, “You don’t do cocaine anymore.”
Boston replies, “Of course I do. I don’t do it often, like I’m not snorting a line while we’re doing the show… I don’t do opiates anymore but I wish I did.“
The honesty that emerges when you’re a legend for your college basketball betting. The video footage of Krack’s surprise is also priceless.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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