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NFL receiving yards prop – Tanner Buzick runs the NFL analysis at Dr. Bob Sports. On their podcast this week, he discussed San Francisco RB Christian McCaffrey at 42.5 receiving yards on the Monday night game against Carolina.
McCaffrey has gone over 42.5 receiving yards in 10 of 11 games this season. In addition, Carolina LB Christian Rozeboom is doubtful to play due to a hamstring injury, and Tanner thinks San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan is the best at targeting backup linebackers.
Tanner gave out Christian McCaffrey over 42.5 receiving yards. While you can still find that number, I will be betting this at the widely available number of 43.5. Tanner is a gold mine of NFL information, and you should catch his NFL show on YouTube every week.
NFL passing yards prop – Tampa Bay QB Baker Mayfield faces a tough test at the Los Angeles Rams. In my yards per pass attempt adjusted for opposing quarterbacks, the Rams rank 4th in the NFL.
Mayfield has regressed after a monster 2024 season. In those same adjusted numbers, Mayfield rates as NFL average. Tampa Bay most likely gets WR Chris Godwin back this week, but it remains to seen whether the 29 year old veteran will impact this game.
The Rams will be without safety Quentin Lake, but that should only make small changes to my model that predicts 201 passing yards for Mayfield. There is value in Baker Mayfield under 242.5 passing yards, a widely available number.
College football total predictions – Earlier this week, I wrote about BYU at Cincinnati in my member football analysis. My model predicted a total of 56.2 points in this game, and the match ups were favorable for Cincinnati.
Cincinnati RB Tawee Walker has rushed for 6.1 yards per carry, and they also get Evan Pryor back this week (7.2 yards per carry). They may be able to generate some explosive plays against a BYU defense ranked 76th in my adjusted YPC.
I leaned BYU at Cincinnati over 54.5 in part because of the performance of my total models this season. The market is now at 56.5 at most books.
Members of The Power Rank get access to college football spread and total predictions on Sunday around 1pm, and the total predictions are 55.7% against the opening market. Check out this page for all the details on how the model has performed.
Jalen Hurts magic – Passing success rate is the most predictive stat that I’ve found for NFL quarterbacks. Let’s look Jalen Hurt’s numbers after my adjustments for opposing defenses (43.3% NFL average this season):
- 42.4% in 2025.
- 43.4% in 2024. Won the Super Bowl.
- 43.7% in 2023. The weird late season collapse, lost in Wild Card to Tampa Bay.
- 41.8% in 2022. Made the Super Bowl.
How has Hurts been so successful despite NFL average passing numbers? An insane 23-5 record in one score games since 2022.
While there is a large random element in one score games, the quarterback does own some of this record. Peyton Manning (67.7%) and Tom Brady (66.9%) are two of the best since 1999.
But Jalen Hurts at 82.1%? I expect massive regression moving forward for Philadelphia with their current quarterback.
Football humor – There is something timeless about poop humor. Brandon Carney on Shadeur Sanders is the funniest thing I’ve seen on the internet in a long time.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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