Can Buffalo beat Kansas City as a home underdog? The markets have the Chiefs as a 2.5 point favorite, but its worth digging deeper into this Buffalo team.
I had my doubts about the Buffalo pass offense. QB Josh Allen is elite, but I was not sold on his receivers for the 2025 season.
After eight weeks of the season, Allen is expected to have a 43.0% passing success rate against an average NFL defense. This is worse than the 43.3% NFL average for 2025 and his rating of 45.2% last season.
Keon Coleman has emerged as the top target, but he is only averaging 1.37 yards per route run (YPPR), worse than the 1.5 average for NFL WR. However, TE Dalton Kincaid has emerged with 2.52 YPPR, and WR Khalil Shakir continues to give Allen that outlet receiver on short routes (1.95 YPPR).
The real strength of this Buffalo offense is the ground game, as they continue to have extraordinary health on the offensive line for the third season in a row. OT Spencer Brown missed one game but otherwise the starters have played every game.
Buffalo has the best rush offense by my adjusted rushing success rate, and James Cook is averaging 6.0 yards per carry. This is an area in which they can take advantage of Kansas City.
I had huge questions about the secondary, and this unit is 29th by PFF coverage grade. CB Christian Benford has been banged up and has a grade of 46 compared to 79 and 83 the past two seasons. S Taylor Rapp was bad and is now on IR.
However, Buffalo ranks 8th in my adjusted passing success rate. One factor is the pass rush. Edge Greg Rousseau has been solid as expected, but veteran Joey Bosa has remained healthy and has a 17.2% pressure rate, best on the team. In addition, rookie CB Maxwell Hairston played his first game last week against Carolina, and he could give this pass defense a boost.
Overall, my numbers have Buffalo 4 points better than NFL average, down from the preseason but still strong. To make Kansas City -2.5 on the road, you have to think the Chiefs are about 8.5 points better than NFL average. My numbers won’t justify this.
My best numbers have Kansas City 5.7 points better than NFL average. They could be better now that they have WR Rashee Rice back (played the past two games).
However, my best numbers make Buffalo a small favorite (0.3 points). This was sent to members with Buffalo +2.5 at home, but there is still value at +2.
Here is a sample of predictions usually saved for paying members of The Power Rank.
CFB. Michigan will beat Purdue by 18.3 points at home. Purdue has exceeded preseason expectations, as my model has them 3.3 points better than the preseason. However, the Boilermakers have yet to win a Big Ten game, and that most likely doesn’t change on the road at Michigan.
NFL. Detroit will beat Minnesota by 7.7 points at home. Jared Goff has been incredible at not throwing the football in dangerous situations, as he has a bad ball rate of 3.5% this season (12.1% NFL average). He won’t sustain a rate this low, but his care of the football means fewer interceptions for Detroit.
CFB. Virginia will beat California by 2.4 points on the road. Virginia has an undefeated 4-0 ACC record, as a loss to NC State doesn’t count in conference. Virginia has won four one score games in a row, but let’s put them on upset alert against California.
Football betting with a PhD edge
This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter at 5pm Eastern on Tuesday, October 19. This newsletter is a free service that strives to be:
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