Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
Minnesota at Iowa, College Football Week 9 – On the Cover 3 podcast, expert bettor Bud Elliott notes that Iowa should be able to run the ball in this game.
My numbers agree, as I have Minnesota ranked 111th out of 136 teams in adjusted rushing success rate. In addition, running the ball negates Iowa’s passing game which ranks 100th in adjusted passing success rate despite the high hopes for transfer QB Mark Gronowski.
Overall, Bud thinks Iowa has strength on both the offensive and defensive line that Minnesota can’t match. While the spread is large, Bud likes Iowa -8.5 at home against Minnesota (kicks off at 3:30pm Eastern).
NFL player props – The SharpStack +eV Tool uses data from sharp sports books to find value. The NFL props I’ve posted for members are 12-5 this season. Let’s take a look at some player props for Sunday’s games:
- Jayden Higgins under 36.5 receiving yards, -115 at BetMGM. Most other books are at 33.5 or lower for the Houston WR.
- Christian McCaffrey under 47.5 receiving yards, -114 at DraftKings. Most other books are at 43.5 or lower for the do it all San Francisco RB.
- Bijan Robinson under 95.5 rushing yards, -115 at BetMGM. As much talent as the Atlanta RB has, other books are at 92.5 rushing yards at most.
Use the code thepowerrank for a 25% discount on SharpStack.
NFL interception prop – Dallas QB Dak Prescott has been exceptional this season, and part of this excellence has been throwing only three interceptions. However, his 1.2% interception rate is unsustainable.
To predict future interceptions, I consider bad balls, or the sum of interceptions and passes defended. These are the plays in which the QB throws the football into a dangerous situation. Dak has a 15.1% bad ball rate this season, worse than 12.1% NFL average and only better than Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield among regular starters.
My model gives a 60.3% chance that Prescott throw a pick against Denver, a game in which Dallas is an underdog. There is value in Dak Prescott to throw an interception, -136 at FanDuel.
Members of The Power Rank will have access to more interception props with greater value at noon Eastern on Saturday.
Pittsburgh Steelers – Aaron Rodgers and company are off to a 4-2 start. However, this record vastly overrates this team.
Pittsburgh has one score wins over the New York Jets, New England and Minnesota. However, the Steelers were +7 in turnover margin, and the opponent averaged 114.3 more yards in those games. In addition, the Steelers have lost zero of five fumbles this season.
With the large random element in turnovers, Pittsburgh has enjoyed unsustainable success this season. In my member numbers, Green Bay is favored by 2.3 points at Pittsburgh in the Sunday night NFL game.
Betting humor – Portland coach Chauncey Billups and Miami guard Terry Rozier were arrested this week in an investigation into illegal sports betting.
Mike Beavais replied: “Use code MULTIPLEARRESTS for a 30% profit boost on a three-leg parlay with DraftKings, the official gambling partner of the NBA.”
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:
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