Michigan’s offense came into the season with a lot of questions. True freshman Bryce Underwood would start at QB, but who would complement the nation’s top recruit?
Transfer WR Donaven McCully had potential, but he could not crack the starting line up at Indiana in 2024. At running back, Justice Haynes transferred from Alabama. However, a big reason for his transfer was probably getting fewer carries than Jam Miller in the Alabama backfield.
Through six weeks, Michigan has answered the questions on offense, as they rank 3rd in my yards per play adjusted for opposing defenses. Haynes has been crucial, as he continues to break big runs and has averaged 7.7 yards per carry.
However, the passing game has been solid as well. Underwood and the offense ranks 16th in my adjusted yards per pass attempt. McCulley had 112 receiving yards on six catches against Wisconsin last week. As Underwood continues to get experience, the Michigan offense should continue to improve.
USC has never fielded the best defenses under Lincoln Riley, and this year does not seem different. The USC defense ranks an uninspiring 61st in my adjusted yards per play, and these rankings tend to stabilize after six weeks of the season.
However, USC always has elite offenses under Riley, and QB Jayden Maiava has led the 10th best offense by my adjusted yards per play. WR Makai Lemon has earned almost a third of the targets and projects as a 1st round NFL pick.
USC faces a Michigan defense that has declined since last season, as they rank 26th in my adjusted yards per play compared to 3rd in 2024. This unit lost two defensive tackles, Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant, to the first round of the NFL draft. Both players made crucial contributions to the 2023 national championship team.
This 2025 Michigan defense has excellent players like edge Derrick Moore, edge Rayshaun Benny and LB Jaishawn Barham. This trio has 8 sacks this season, but none projects as 1st round pick according to consensus big boards.
My member college football predictions like USC by 2.5 points, which considers the extra week of rest they have over Michigan. The market has USC -2.5, which implies no value.
However, my totals model predicts 59.1 points in this game. With the improvement of the Michigan offense, this suggests value in over 56.5 points in this game.
Here are a few other predictions available to members of The Power Rank.
CFB: Texas will beat Oklahoma by 1.3 points (neutral site). Before the injury to Oklahoma QB John Mateer, my model would have made Oklahoma a 1.7 point favorite. Mateer is now probable to play a few weeks after surgery on his throwing hand, and the market has moved from Texas -1.5 to Oklahoma -1.
NFL: Kansas City will beat Detroit by 2.3 points at home. Even without Rashee Rice, the Kansas City offense has been great, as they rank 4th in my adjusted passing success rate. Detroit will be without both starting CBs, and both of the starting safeties are questionable.
NFL: Green Bay will beat Cincinnati by 15.4 points at home. This prediction is based on Cincinnati QB Jake Browning’s numbers, although Joe Flacco will start. The market didn’t move based on this QB change.
Football betting with a PhD edge
This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter on Friday, October 10, 2025. This newsletter is a free service that strives to be:
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