Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
Women’s Wimbledon – On Beating the Book podcast, tennis expert Gill Alexander noted that the grass court season only lasts a month. This smaller sample size means that the data on grass can’t be trusted as much as on clay or hard court.
Less reliance on the data makes seems to imply more value in the markets, especially for the women in 2025. One player to watch is Qinwen Zheng, a player potentially ripe for a first round upset.
Zheng had a recent back injury and usually doesn’t perform that well on grass. Gill likes Katerina Siniakova +152 over Zheng in a match on Monday, noon Eastern time. Thank you for allowing the weekend to include Monday.
Wimbledon future – On the same Beating the Book podcast, quantitative bettor Drew Dinsick noted the asymmetry in Quarter 1 for the women. Three of the favorites are on one side of the draw, which leaves Madison Keys alone on the other side.
Drew likes Madison Keys to win Quarter 1 of Wimbledon, which has moved from +470 on FanDuel last night to +420 this morning. Given this movement, the better play is Keys -110 to make the quarterfinals, which has not moved since last night. Drew sees almost a free pass for Keys into the quarters.
FIFA Club World Cup – The markets have six European clubs with the best odds to win the first 32 team Club World Cup. However, with more to prove than the European clubs, the South American clubs have played with more intensity.
Looking for a non-European team to back? ESPN’s Bill Connelly likes Flamengo, the best of four remaining teams from Brazil. They have a signature 3-1 win over Chelsea and have seven shots worth at least 0.2 xG, or great goal scoring opportunities.
However, Flamengo faces an excellent Bayern Munich team, as the latter dropped to second in their group with a 1-0 loss to Benfica. Check out Bill Connelly’s analysis of all 16 remaining Club World Cup teams based on advanced analytics.
Mikey Keene, Michigan football – Fresno State visited Michigan to open the 2024 season. During the game, I remember thinking Michigan might be better off with the opposing QB Mikey Keene, as Davis Warren struggled in his first start.
Then Keene threw a pick six to Will Johnson. It was his second pick of the game, and Keene ended the season with a 2.8% pick rate, the college football average.
Keene transferred to Michigan to compete with incoming freshman Bryce Underwood for the QB job. Keene’s interception numbers do not stand out, but interception rate is a poor predictor of future interceptions.
My research has shown the utility of looking at bad balls, or the sum of interceptions and passes defended (plays in which the defense gets a hand on the ball). Keene had a 10.9% bad ball rate, much better than the 13.3% college football average and 13.9% for Davis Warren.
Betting humor – Ella Grace Maddux probably dated a man a little too obsessed with sports betting. This song is so worth a minute of your time.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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