Looking for sharp sports betting this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
Michigan State vs Auburn – Auburn entered the tournament as the top overall seed according to the committee. However, my numbers had them as the weakest of the 1 seeds. They now rank 5th in my member college basketball numbers behind the other 1 seeds and Alabama.
After an electric start to the season, Auburn lost three of their last four games before the start of the NCAA tournament. The SEC is tough, but that didn’t stop Florida from winning their last six games before the start of the NCAA tournament.
As I discussed this week, Michigan State is an excellent team despite low expectations this preseason. My best member numbers have Auburn by 3.9 points, and there is value in Michigan State +5.5 in the South region final.
MLB home run future – Paul Sporer is a baseball analytics expert that writes for FanGraphs. On A Numbers Game with Gill Alexander, he talked about the futures market for MLB home run leader.
Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani are the big favorites, and the latter already has 2 home runs this season. But Paul sees value further down the board in Fernando Tatis Jr. of San Diego.
Paul notes that Tatis had 21 homers in 102 games last season, and his power numbers were up from the previous season. He sees the potential for 50 home runs this year, and recommended Tatis Jr at +2000 to lead the majors in home runs.
Tatis hit his first home run last night, but you can grab +2600 for Fernando Tatis Jr on FanDuel as of Saturday morning to lead the majors in home runs.
Florida’s best player – Point guard Walter Clayton has been key for Florida, as he led the comeback against a strong Connecticut team in the Round of 32. Big Alex Condon will probably join Clayton in the NBA next season.
But according to EvanMiya.com, Florida’s best player is reserve big Thomas Haugh. His 59.2% two point field goal percentage helps him be the most efficient player on offense.
Check out all Evan’s player ratings over at EvanMiya.com. Check out 12:33 of this episode of the podcast to learn more about how his ratings work.
Elite Eight predictions – Four SEC teams have made the Elite Eight, one in each game. These are predictions usually saved for paying members of The Power Rank.
- Florida will beat Texas Tech by 7.6 points. I gained a lot of respect for Texas Tech after they came back against a very talented Arkansas team. However, their tournament run probably ends against Florida, who can throw a lot of bigs against Darrion Williams in the post.
- Houston will beat Tennessee by 3.5 points. Houston needed a last second bucket to beat Purdue late on Friday night. They have the 8th best offense according to my adjusted points per possession because of three players that have hit over 40% of their threes this season (LJ Cryer, Milos Uzan, Emanuel Sharp).
NFL humor – Stefon Diggs signs with the Patriots, and Brandon Carney lays out the truth; a hilarious :28 sketch.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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