Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
NFL player prop – Ryan Noonan of 4for4 Football notes that Kansas City fans have been clamoring for more snaps for safety Jaden Hicks. Because of his excellent play, the snap share for the rookie has increased in each of the past three games.
That increased snap share has come at the expense of Bryan Cook, who played a season-low 63% of snaps last week. Even with a generous 80% snap share projection for Cook, Ryan’s model predicts 3.75 tackle and assists versus Houston.
There is value in Bryan Cook under 4.5 tackles and assists, -115 at DraftKings. Note that this game with Houston at Kansas City kicks off at 1pm Eastern on Saturday.
Follow Ryan Noonan for all of his NFL insights.
Clemson at Texas, College Football Playoff – On The Football Analytics Show podcast, Collin Wilson of The Action Network made the case for the road underdog Clemson.
- Texas QB Quinn Ewers struggles against Cover 1, the primary defense that Clemson runs.
- The Texas offensive tackles were awful against Georgia. While Kelvin Banks Jr. probably returns against Clemson, these tackles face studs like defensive end TJ Parker, 4th in the nation in tackles for loss.
- Clemson freshman WR Bryant Wesco Jr. excelled against SMU and could be ready to fulfill his vast potential.
When we recorded on Tuesday, the market had Texas -11.5, and Collin predicted steam towards the Longhorns. Now, despite the likely absence of Texas WR Isaiah Bond, the market has Texas -13.5 on Saturday morning.
Collin sees value in Clemson +13.5. He also broke down SMU at Penn State and Tennessee at Ohio State in a must listen episode of The Football Analytics Show.
NFL interception prop – With the injury to Dak Prescott, Dallas has turned to Cooper Rush at quarterback. It has made an interception prone offense even worse.
It seems like Rush has done well, as he has thrown three picks for a 1.2% interception rate this season. However, he puts the football in dangerous situations at the highest rate of any NFL QB this season with more than 100 attempts. Yes, more often than Anthony Richardson.
My model gives a 68.3% chance that he throws a pick versus Tampa Bay. While this estimate might be high due to a limited sample size, there is value in Cooper Rush over 0.5 interceptions, -145 at DraftKings (59.2% break even probability).
The 12 Days of the College Football Playoff – On social media, I’ve been posting a short video each day on a college football playoff team. The 12 day series will appropriately end on Christmas Eve. You’ll find the answers to:
- The team that can’t throw the ball.
- The supposedly physical team that struggles stop the run.
- The worst team in the playoff.
Can you do me a big favor? Can you share The 12 Days of the College Football Playoff? Thank you!
Football humor – “I’m here because my wife says I bring tension to the house.” Superstar comedian Bill Burr crushes it in this Saturday Night Live commercial for Buffalo Wild Wings.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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