My numbers paint a bleak picture for this Indianapolis team.
The Colts switched from struggling second year QB Anthony Richardson to veteran, 39 year old Joe Flacco. It was the right move only because Richardson had been so bad.
To evaluate these two QBs, let’s look at success rate, a metric that attempts to capture the context of each play. A two yard gain has different consequences on 1st and 15 compared with 4th and 1.
The particulars of my definition of success rate do not matter when a player has been as bad as Richardson. At The Power Rank, I take the raw success rate for a QB and adjust for opposing defense. The result is an expected passing success rate against an average NFL defense:
- Anthony Richardson, 27.8%. Yes, they had to bench him.
- Joe Flacco, 39.9%. Much better than Richardson but worse than the NFL average of 42.6%.
With Flacco, the Indianapolis offense struggled against Minnesota last week; the Colts didn’t run a single play in the red zone (within 20 yards of the endzone). Flacco threw a single pass intended for a receiver in the red zone, an incompletion to Michael Pittman Jr.
In addition, expected top WR Pittman has been dealing with a back injury all season, and he is questionable again against Buffalo. WR Josh Downs has also missed games and has played through a toe injury.
The Indianapolis defense is terrible, as they can’t stop the pass or run:
- 32nd in adjusted passing success rate.
- 20th in adjusted rushing success rate.
My prediction for Indianapolis at Buffalo only considers data with Joe Flacco. Based on market and play by play data, Indianapolis with Flacco is 5.34 worse than NFL average. Only New England with Drake Maye and Carolina with Bryce Young are worse.
Buffalo started the season about 3 points better than NFL average, and the market and play by play data suggest that they are indeed about 3 points better than NFL average. The offense has been better (12th in my adjusted passing success rate) than the defense (18th).
Buffalo didn’t have new WR Amari Cooper last week against Miami, but Josh Allen still had a 51.3% passing success rate and 5.92 yards per pass attempt. Cooper is questionable this week.
The model has Buffalo by 6.0, and there is value in Buffalo -3.5.
Football betting with a PhD edge
This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter around noon Eastern on Friday, November 8, 2024. This newsletter is a free service that strives to be:
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The predictions are based on my PhD research from Stanford, and the content covers college football and the NFL.
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