Making Arizona the favorite against the Los Angeles Rams is the second spread this week that doesn’t make sense to me.
For this game, I trust the preseason wisdom of crowds model the most, and it favors the Rams by 4. The wisdom of crowds model has gone 54.6% against the closing spread the first six weeks of the season (2014 to 2023). I talk about this more in my audiobook The 60 Minute Guide to the 2024 Football Season.
Please do not blindly bet the model because of this result. However, the wisdom of crowds is a useful tool to set a baseline for this game.
The Rams do have a worrisome injury situation.
- WR Puka Nacua is on injured reserve after he left the Detroit game with a knee injury.
- Tackle Rob Havenstein and guard Kevin Dotson on the right side of the offensive line are questionable.
- Projected starting CB Darious Williams is out until October, and CB Cobie Durant is questionable.
Despite missing Nacua and Havenstein for parts of week 1, the Rams still had a 47.1% passing success rate last week against Detroit (39.0% NFL average). WR Cooper Kupp had an insane 21 targets as Matthew Stafford threw the ball 49 times.
In addition, the Rams face a weak Arizona defense this week. In 2023, the Cardinals were the worst defense by my adjusted passing success rate. This season, they added veteran CB Sean Murphy-Bunting and hope to get contributions from rookie CB Max Melton.
Arizona also expected contributions from 1st round pick DE Darius Robinson, but the rookie is on injured reserve. They allowed a 52% passing success rate to Buffalo in week 1. While they kept the game within one score, Arizona benefitted from a kick off return touchdown, a rare event with a large random element.
In addition, I have my doubts about Arizona QB Kyler Murray. In my adjusted passing metrics last season, Murray had an expected passing success rate of 38.5%, worse than the NFL average of 42.3% and the 40.7% for Josh Dobbs with Arizona. Murray had a 40% passing success rate against Buffalo last week.
In addition, Murray has gotten worse with his bad ball rate, a metric that looks at how often a quarterback throws the football into a dangerous situation. Bad ball rate is a good predictor of future interceptions. Here are Murray’s rates for each of the past three seasons (11.7% NFL average):
- 2021: 10.8%
- 2022: 12.0%
- 2023: 14.4%
The wisdom of crowds model has Arizona as a bottom 10 NFL team. Despite their injury situation, the Rams should be favored, and there is value in Rams +1.5 at Arizona (-115 available at FanDuel on Thursday).
Members of The Power Rank got access to the second week 2 spread that didn’t make sense to me, and Buffalo +2.5 at Miami won on Thursday night.
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