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Rookie Scouting Portfolio – While the mock draft experts have Jayden Daniels as the second QB behind Caleb Williams, Matt Waldman has a different take based on hours of film study. His Rookie Scouting Portfolio gives in depth evaluations of skill position players for football fanatics as well as NFL executives.
Matt finds Washington QB Michael Penix Jr underrated, as he sees good decision making and a strong pocket presence in the face of pressure. His accuracy into crowded zones in the middle of the field also helps, and Matt has Penix as his second ranked QB behind Williams.
Matt also joined me on The Football Analytics Show podcast to discuss how to determine when defenses catch up with a rookie QB, a topic that has implications for spread betting this fall.
NBA player prop – Rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. has surged for the Miami Heat, as he has scored at least 15 points in his past four games. This is probably a fluke, as Jaquez only scored 15 points in one of his previous 16 games.
Miami travels to face top seed and NBA juggernaut Boston. The markets expect Miami to score about 97 points, significantly fewer than their 110 point average during the regular season. Boston’s defense had the third best points per possession allowed during the regular season.
Jacquez could continue to see more shots with the absence of star Jimmy Butler. However, there is a points prop market for Terry Rozier, which suggests he will play after missing six games. In addition, regression suggests value in Jaime Jacquez Jr under 14.5 points, -120 at FanDuel (game on Sunday at 1:15pm Eastern).
NFL draft bet – Benjamin Robinson has been doing great work for many years with Grinding the Mocks, a wisdom of crowds approach that aggregates mock drafts to predict the 2024 NFL draft. While I have used this in the past as a betting tool, Robinson has now worked with Kevin Cole to create an even better tool.
At his site Unexpected Points, Cole has used data from Grinding the Mocks to produce histograms of where each prospect could land (subscription required). In addition, this work weights mock drafts by their historical accuracy.
Alabama CB Terrion Arnold has an expected draft position of 15.8 on Grinding the Mocks, which suggests the market for his draft position of 15.5 is efficient. However, Kevin’s histogram gives at least a 60% chance that Arnold goes under 15.5, with Indianapolis at the 15th pick as the most likely destination.
The wisdom of crowds suggests value in Arnold under 15.5 draft position, -102 on FanDuel.
Sports betting group – “You’re out to dinner on a Saturday during college basketball season? There are still 32 games left in the day, what do you mean you’re out to dinner? You’re clocked out already.”
This quote comes from an episode of Risk of Ruin on the inner working of a sports betting group. Nothing in the episode suggests the utility of a Stanford Ph.D. as a requirement to making money in sports betting, and I particularly enjoyed how the group dealt with getting stiffed by a tribal casino.
John Reeder produces amazing audio documentaries on Risk of Ruin. If this Movers episode isn’t enough, check out Part 1 and Part 2 of previous episodes on the betting group of Rufus Peabody.
Football humor – With the passing of OJ Simpson, sit back and enjoy this clip from Dave Chappelle (or bookmark it for later). If you give the GOAT of comedy two minutes of your time, you will watch all of this, which is the funniest thing ever posted in 5-Nuggets.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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