Looking for sports betting action on this Final Four weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
March Madness rebound prop – Dr. Nick Giffen models player props in multiple sports for the Action Network, and his numbers imply value for Alabama’s Aaron Estrada against Connecticut.
The transfer from Hofstra averages 5.5 rebounds per game, but this should decrease against Connecticut. By Nick’s numbers, the Huskies are 12th best in the nation in schedule adjusted rebounding rate. 7’2″ Donovan Clingan plays a big role in these numbers.
In addition, Connecticut also shoots the ball well, leaving fewer defensive rebounding opportunities for Alabama and Estrada. DraftKings has Estrada under 5.5 rebounds at +100, and Nick’s model expects him to go under at least 56% of the time.
Follow Dr. Nick Giffen for all of his model driven insights in motor sports and football.
March Madness points prop – The market has Alabama’s team total at 74.5. This means the Crimson Tide are expected to score almost a fifth fewer points than their season average of 90.8 points per game.
Despite this drastic reduction in points, FanDuel has the points prop for Alabama’s Rylan Griffen at 11.5, right at his season average of 11.3 points. It should be noted that Griffen has averaged 12.4 points in his last 10 starts.
However, Griffen faces a stiff Connecticut defense that ranks 4th in my adjusted points per possession. The markets think Alabama’s offense will struggle, which suggests value in Rylan Griffen under 11.5 points, -125 at FanDuel.
Woman’s championship game prediction – This week, I posted women’s college basketball team rankings that take margin of victory and adjust for schedule with my algorithm. Here’s my prediction for the championship game:
- The Power Rank: South Carolina -6.5 over Iowa.
The markets have the same spread as of Saturday morning.
Raw margin of victory would make South Carolin a 9.5 point favorite over Iowa, so the schedule adjustments help the Hawkeyes. Both teams have played nine top 25 teams by my rankings. However, South Carolina beat up on three awful teams (predicted to lose to an average Division 1 team by 10 or more points) while Iowa only played one team that bad.
Check out all 360 women’s college basketball teams by my adjusted margin of victory.
NFL QB projections – It is hard to project how a college QB will fare in the NFL, even for players that excelled like Caleb Williams. Bill Connelly of ESPN took a stats based approach to comparisons for 2024 NFL draft QB prospects.
If you’re a Bears fan, you might want to skip the first one:
- Caleb Williams. The best comps are Zach Wilson and Sam Ehlinger. Williams had better stats than both, but all three quarterbacks either threw easy short passes or improvised to make big plays.
- JJ McCarthy. The best comps are Stetson Bennett and Tua Tagovailoa. These three quarterbacks had excellent efficiency numbers on a small volume of dropbacks. McCarthy wasn’t asked to do much at Michigan, so it’s anyone guess what happens when he starts for an NFL team that needs constant production to compete.
Bill’s entire article is available to ESPN+ subscribers.
College basketball humor – Michigan alum Tej Seth skewers Iowa’s football team (15.4 points per game, secord worst in FBS for the 2023 season) in celebrating the accomplishments of the women’s basketball team.
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