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Philadelphia at Tampa Bay, Monday Night – On The Football Analytics Show podcast, NFL analyst Clevta asked which team you would favor if you didn’t know the identity of these two teams. He argued that Tampa Bay would be favored at home.
The market of Philadelphia -3 is based on reputation, which implies use of a preseason prior. My numbers agree, as I would favor Tampa Bay at home based on data from the current season.
Philadelphia hasn’t been great this season. Their +5 point differential is the lowest among playoff teams except for Pittsburgh, and they ended the season with losses to Arizona and the New York Giants. Clevta likes Tampa Bay +3 at home.
NFL interception prop – Tampa Bay QB Baker Mayfield has been incredible with interceptions this season. His 1.8% interception rate is significantly better than the 2.4% NFL average in 2023.
However, interception rate is not the best way of predicting future interceptions. My work has shown that bad balls, or interception and passes defended, is a better way to predict future picks.
Bad ball rate gives how often a QB puts the football in a dangerous position. Mayfield’s 13.8% bad ball rate since the start of 2021 is one of the NFL worst among regular starters.
My model gives a 59.9% chance that Mayfield throws a pick against Philadelphia, and there is value in Mayfield over 0.5 interceptions, -120 at DraftKings.
Jared Goff passing yards in the playoffs – The Detroit offense has had an incredible season. However, the team faces a tough road in the playoffs, and that affects the total passing yards in the playoffs for Jared Goff (510.5 at DraftKings).
Against the Los Angeles Rams at home, Goff has a passing yards prop of 263.5. The markets give a 40% chance that Detroit loses, and Goff under 510.5 for the playoffs almost certainly hits.
If Detroit wins, they most likely travel to Dallas. When these two teams met at the same venue in week 17, the market had 230.5 passing yards from Goff. By my estimation, there is at least another 20% chance that Goff goes under 510.5 passing yards in these two games and gets eliminated from more games.
There is value in Jared Goff under 510.5 passing yards for the playoffs, -115 at DraftKings.
San Francisco vs Baltimore Super Bowl – Through their strong play, the Niners and Ravens have become the Super Bowl favorites in each conference. In addition, both teams have a bye this week from earning the top seed.
What is the likelihood that San Francisco faces Baltimore in the Super Bowl? Sumer Sports built a team model based EPA (expected points added) specific to the current QB. Their simulations also account for rest and weather.
The Sumer numbers give a 26% chance for a San Francisco vs Baltimore to play in the Super Bowl. For more of their data driven insights and team previews, grab the Sumer Sports 2023 NFL Playoff Preview by signing up for their free newsletter.
NFL humor – A hilarious musical tribute to Joe Flacco.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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