After a week 10 loss to Pittsburgh, Green Bay had a 3-6 record. By my adjusted passing success rate, the Packers ranked 25th of 32 teams.
It didn’t seem like first year starter Jordan Love was the answer at QB.
Since that game, Green Bay has gone 6-2 to make the playoffs. Even more remarkable, Green Bay ranks 6th in my adjusted passing success rate for the season.
Love now seems like the answer, or possibly a budding superstar.
This was such a jump in efficiency that I also isolated the Green Bay offense after week 10 in my calculations. After my opponent adjustments, the Packers had an expected passing success rate of 50.6% compared to the NFL average of 42.1%. This is better than the 49.1% of Brock Purdy and San Francisco, the top ranked unit for the season!
In addition, Love has been doing this without established receivers. Over the past three games, WR Bo Melton, an undrafted free agent in 2022 out of Rutgers, has gotten significant targets. Melton didn’t play at all last season and got his first NFL target week 15 against Tampa Bay.
Rookie WR Jayden Reed is also making a contribution. At least he has 2nd round NFL draft pedigree out of Michigan State.
Green Bay’s defense is awful, as they rank 32nd in my adjusted passing success rate. Dead last.
Overall, my numbers like Dallas by 6.3 points at home, close to the markets with Dallas -7. My predictions use the season long averages for Green Bay’s offense, and the markets seem to do this as well on this game.
The spread would be smaller if you give Green Bay more credit for the second half of the season. Maybe we should, as pass offense by success rate is the most predictive NFL statistic that I’ve found.
In addition, defensive performance is more volatile, which implies that a unit as bad as Green Bay should expect some regression. Don’t be surprised if Green Bay keeps this close and possibly pulls off the upset.
I lean towards Green Bay +7 at Dallas.
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