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Buffalo at New York Jets, NFL Week 1 – The Jets made the biggest NFL offseason move by adding QB Aaron Rodgers. FanDuel has a win total of 9.5 for the Jets, and it will cost you a hefty -134 to bet the over.
At The Power Rank, I take these market win totals and back out a rating for each team to get preseason rankings. This process also requires the price to go over/under the win total and the schedule for each team.
The Jets rank 6th in these NFL preseason market rankings. However, they are still looking up at division rival Buffalo, and my market rankings predict a one point win for the Bills over Jets on Monday night of Week 1.
Members of The Power Rank have access to all NFL predictions for Week 1.
Dallas at Seattle, NHL playoffs – Some people avoid the under in hockey elimination games because of empty net goals. With Dallas leading 3-2 in the series, Seattle might be more aggressive in pulling the goalie.
To offset this effect, pro sports bettor Rob Pizzola notes that penalty calls decrease in Game 6 and 7, as the referees are more likely to “let the boys play.” In addition, the trailing team tends to play a more defensive brand of hockey to eliminate mistakes.
Rob likes Dallas at Seattle under 6 goals (-110 at DraftKings). Follow all the great work Rob and others do in all sports at The Hammer.
Philadelphia at Boston, NBA Playoffs – The Sixers could not close out the series at home on Thursday, so they will travel to the Celtics for the deciding Game 7. To bet the total, sharp quantitative bettor Drew Dinsick notes some overall trends late games in a series:
- Teams know each others strategies, which means it will take 5-10 seconds longer to get the desired shot.
- Referees tend to call fewer fouls in Game 7, which means fewer easy points. Sound familiar?
In general, a Game 7 total should be 15 points lower than the the total for the first four games (214 to 216 range for Philadelphia vs Boston). This suggests value in under 202, -110, available at DraftKings as of Saturday morning.
Drew would not back a number lower than 200, the total at which he thinks this market closes. Follow Drew Dinsick on Twitter for all of his NBA, NFL and tennis betting insights.
European club soccer/football predictions – These predictions come from xG at FBRef.com adjusted for schedule by The Power Rank algorithm. First, let’s look at the Champions League.
- Manchester City hosting Real Madrid – Manchester City has a 58.1% chance to win. Real Madrid has a 21.1% chance to win. There is a 20.8% chance for a tie. The first leg ended in a 1-1 tie. There’s a narrative that Real Madrid owns the Champions League, as they knocked out the favorite Man City last season. However, the numbers and markets suggest otherwise.
- Inter vs Milan – Inter has a 41.6% chance to win. Milan has a 32.0% chance to win. There is a 26.4% chance for a tie. Champions League. Inter won the first leg 2-0.
Inter and Milan share the same stadium, and this neutral site prediction is essentially the same as what was posted for the first leg. However, last week’s prediction was consistent with the market.
In contrast, Pinnacle has a 47.6% break even probability for Inter at “home” against Milan. This suggests that there should be some home advantage, and my adjusted xG is underestimating the difference between Inter and Milan.
Let’s also look at the Premier League.
- Arsenal hosting Brighton – Arsenal has a 46.9% chance to win. Brighton has a 30.1% chance to win. There is a 23.0% chance for a tie. Brighton is my 5th best team in Europe, but they are still looking up at Arsenal at 3rd. Pinnacle has a 56.1% win probability for Arsenal for this match on Sunday.
- Everton hosting Manchester City – Everton has a 10.7% chance to win. Manchester City has a 71.3% chance to win. There is a 18.0% chance for a tie. Everton just got out of the relegation zone with a win over Brighton. I’m surprised the markets aren’t giving Man City a bigger edge (72.6% break even probability for a win at Pinnacle).
NFL humor – If making their schedule release in Anime wasn’t funny enough, the Los Angeles Chargers posted the following for their week 10 game against the Lions: “Gambling Problem? Call (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA), Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY)…”
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
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