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College basketball bet – Andy Molitor of Betsperts notes that Towson is on the second leg of a brutal road trip to end the season at North Carolina Wilmington. Even though Thursday’s game at Charleston didn’t impact the standings, Towson played to win and didn’t cut back on minutes for key players.
While North Carolina Wilmington has lost production from last season, Andy likes the talent of small forward Trazarien White. In addition, they are good at getting to the foul line and making those foul shots.
Andy sees value in North Carolina Wilmington +2.5, a number available at DraftKings as of Saturday morning. This also agrees with The Power Rank’s member numbers, which see this game as a pick.
Nikola Jokic points, rebounds and assists – In The Logic of Sports Betting, authors Ed Miller and Matthew Davidow offer a key but counterintuitive tip: look for a weak market first, then do your handicapping.
Betscope makes finding the market easy. For example, here are two available bets on Nikola Jokic points, rebounds and assists in Denver at Memphis:
- Under 47.5, +110, DraftKings
- Over 47.5, -110, BetMGM
This is an example of a no hold market. You could bet $100 at DK and $110 at MGM and end up with your original $210 no matter what happens.
With no take by the sports books, take your best guess at the sharp side. Jokic has averaged 46.5 for points, rebounds and assists this season, and the under is often the sharp side on NBA props. I see value on the under at DraftKings.
However, you might think the Joker goes crazy and goes over. Either way, use Betscope to find these no hold markets for NBA, NHL and college basketball games.
College basketball predictions – This is a sample of predictions available to members of The Power Rank that you can also deduce from my college basketball rankings.
- Purdue will beat Indiana by 6.5 points at home. 7’4″ Zach Edey has had an outstanding season, but one might question the talent that surrounds this big man. Purdue started the season outside the top 25 in the preseason AP poll, a surprising predictor of NCAA tournament games.
- Alabama will beat Arkansas by 6.1 points at home. Alabama star freshman Brandon Miller might have legal trouble in his future. Despite media outrage over this, Alabama let Miller play on Thursday night, and he dropped 41 points in an overtime win over South Carolina.
- Gonzaga will beat St. Mary’s by 4.9 points at home. This game features Gonzaga’s 2nd ranked offense by my adjusted points per possession against the 6th best defense of St. Mary’s.
Ultimate guide to college basketball analytics – Ever wonder how Ken Pomeroy calculates his college basketball rankings? Or maybe how he comes up with his predictions for each game?
Do matchups matter in college basketball? For example, Alabama’s only weakness on offense is turnovers. Are they at a significant disadvantage against a team like Tennessee that forces a lot of turnovers?
I provide a detailed answer to these questions in my ultimate guide to college basketball analytics. If you find it useful, please share with a friend as we head into March.
NFL humor – “But I have to believe any of us, even you (Kirk), can win.” So many hilarious lines in this episode of Gridiron Heights.
Data driven betting information
These nuggets were sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter. This is a free service that strives to be:
- Valuable
- Concise
- Entertaining
You’ll also get my March Madness cheat sheet that makes it drop dead easy to fill out your bracket. And you’re going to need analytics more than ever in 2023 with such parity in college basketball.
In addition, you get a free pdf of The Logic of Sports Betting mentioned in this article. Ed Miller and Matthew Davidow lay out all the basic concepts you need to become a winner.
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