Your weekly dose of sports betting tips, analytics and news, Super Bowl props edition, and still at 10am Eastern.
Isiah Pacheco under 16.5 receiving yards – Pacheco has been a revelation, as the rookie out of Rutgers has taken over the primary running back duties and racked up 951 rushing yards. However, for the Super Bowl, it’s his receiving prop that has value.
As Matt Freedman noted on the Unexpected Points podcast, Pacheco had an outlier receiving performance with 5 catches on 6 targets for 59 yards against Cincinnati in the AFC Championship game. He had 14 targets the entire season before that, and Jerick McKinnon is usually the primary receiving threat out of the backfield.
Due to an overreaction to one game, Matt likes Pacheco under 16.5 receiving yards, -110 on FanDuel.
Kenneth Gainwell rushing yards – On Thursday’s Props & Hops podcast, pro bettor Hitman says he likes Kenneth Gainwell rushing yards under. He plans to wait and bet it on game day, however, in anticipation of lopsided public money driving up Gainwell’s total.
Gainwell’s recent stats may be misleading, as much of his volume has come late in blowout wins. The Super Bowl projects to be a competitive game. Gainwell is currently listed at 19.5 rushing yards, and Hitman expects to get under 20.5 or better shortly before kickoff.
When to make these Super Bowl prop bets – On an Unabated video, pro bettor Rufus Peabody discussed how he will make most of his bets on Sunday morning this year.
In past years, Rufus will bet on overs and events to happen (e.g. first touchdown) when the markets open. However, he has made fewer of these types of bets this year, as books are opening with better numbers.
As mentioned last week, Rufus says to bet unders as late as possible, as the public tends to push up player props such as passing and receiving yards. Hence, you might be able to wait on making the bets in 7-Nugget Saturday until a few hours before kick off.
Patrick Mahomes passing yards – Pro bettor Rob Pizzola thinks Kansas City will focus its attack on the running the ball and the short passing game.
Philadelphia holds a big edge in their front seven against the offensive line of the Chiefs. Rob doesn’t think Andy Reid will let Mahomes sit back in the pocket and face this pass rush, especially with the quality of the Philadelphia cornerbacks against Kansas City wide receivers.
Against better defenses, Mahomes usually has a passing yards prop in the mid 280s. Rob likes Mahomes under 294.5 passing yards, available at Caesars as of Saturday morning. Check out all the great work Rob and his team do at The Hammer.
Any FG/XP to Hit an Upright or Crossbar – For the Super Bowl, the public wants to bet on an event to happen (touchdown, more passing yards, etc). This often means value on betting things not to happen, even if this is way less fun.
On the Establish the Run podcast, Adam Levitan pointed out the DraftKings prop on whether a field goal or extra point hits an upright or crossbar. While he couldn’t find any data, he thinks -650 on no has value (a break even probability of 86.7%).
To bet this on DraftKings, look under Novelty Props and then Kick to Hit Post. You might forget about this one during the game, but it will be fun to find a probable winner on Monday morning.
Key Injuries – While Philadelphia has a remarkable clean bill of health, let’s check in a few key players for Kansas City.
- Kansas City WR Mecole Hardman won’t play, as he has been placed on IR because of a pelvis injury.
- Kansas City WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney have practiced all week and will play.
NFL humor – Tom Brady retired more times than Aaron Rodgers has won Super Bowls. Something to think about during a four day darkness retreat.
Data driven betting information
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