The wrong team might be favored in this game. While the market still favors Chicago by 3 at some books as of Friday morning, The Power Rank’s numbers predict a 2.7 point win for the road Lions.
On the post-Week 1 episode of The Football Analytics Show, professional bettor Rob Pizzola singled out the Bears as the NFL’s worst team – and that was after a win over the 49ers. Rob called out Chicago’s lack of talent on both sides of the ball, including a defense that has since lost arguably its two best players in DE Robert Quinn and LB Roquan Smith.
More recently, Rob shared his handicap for Detroit +3 on this week’s Matchbook NFL Betting Show. While he thinks more highly of Justin Fields than he did after Week 1, he also thinks the Lions have outperformed the Bears against a strikingly similar recent schedule:
- at New England: This is the one advantage for Chicago. The Bears crushed the Patriots, while the Lions got crushed by the Patriots.
- at Dallas: A wire-to-wire loss for Chicago. A goal-line fumble away from a legitimate shot to win for Detroit.
- vs. Miami: A Bears loss that saw them trailing for most of the game. A more competitive loss for the Lions, including an early 14-0 lead.
Aside from these recent similarities, Rob notes Detroit’s schedule has been a gauntlet, including games against NFC division leaders Philadelphia, Minnesota and Seattle.
Looking at it through a Chicago lens, he sums it up best by saying, “You’re asking a bad team to win by more than a field goal.”
Fellow pro bettor and Matchbook NFL Show analyst Fabian Sommer is aligned on the Lions +3. Fabian notes that the Bears have had unsustainable third down production the last three weeks, including an eye-popping 0.45 EPA/play. Chicago has also recovered four of five fumbles in the last three games. Regression is looming.
Fabian also notes Detroit WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is one week further removed from a severe ankle sprain and thus one week closer to 100 percent. We can expect a bump in production for the Lions’ best playmaker.
Last but not least, Fabian discussed on Props & Hops midweek market movement show Between the Lines that Detroit has recently closed +3.5 in home games against Miami and Green Bay. Detroit now goes on the road to division opponent Chicago, and The Power Rank calculates a 0.9 point home field advantage in division games. Chicago is not nearly as good as Green Bay or Miami to justify the same type of spread.
With The Power Rank’s data favoring Detroit by almost a field goal, +130 on the moneyline presents value as well. Consider a split ticket of Lions +3 (-120) and moneyline +130 for your NFL Week 10 portfolio.
Football betting with a PhD edge
This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter at noon Eastern on Friday, November 11, 2022. While Detroit +3 is still available, you can get this newsletter delivered straight to your inbox.
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