Your weekly dose of sports betting tips and news, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
Betting on Wimbledon – While Novak Djokovic is a massive favorite to win his seventh Wimbledon championship, there are lingering questions about if he can come close to the peak of his powers given his routine may have been challenged with what happened in Australia and the “shoulder injury” from last summer.
On the Deep Dive podcast, Drew Dinsick and Andy Monitor discussed Wimbledon futures with @MatterTipTennis. Two players they mentioned include Carlos Alcaraz, who has an incredible drop shot, and David Goffin, who has had success against top tier competition but hasn’t put it all together in a Grand Slam yet.
How to break into sports betting – Here’s the convention wisdom for success: work hard in school, go to college, maybe even get an overrated Stanford PhD (how can you trust anything from a Pac-12 school anyway?). But maybe this is all balderdash.
On an episode of Be Better Bettors, Antonino De Rosa talks about getting hired at Pinnacle sports book because of his success at Magic: The Gathering. In this card game, players defeat opponents by casting spells, using artifacts and summoning creatures based on their cards.
Antonino made part time money playing Magic: The Gathering in college, and this skill led to a future career first as a trader and now as a sports bettor. In a great episode of Be Bettor Bettors, he talks about his transition from card playing to trading to live betting basketball.
The critical receiving statistic – Consistency. Big plays come and go, but an offense in football thrives when it can consistently gain yards.
Consistency is important for receivers as well. Does a receiver make himself a threat on each play, even if he doesn’t get the ball? Looking at yards per route run gives a sense for this consistency, while yards per target can be influenced by big plays.
On a recent episode of The Football Analytics Show, Ed Feng noted how Cleveland’s Donovan Peoples-Jones had a better yards per target than Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams last season. While Peoples-Jones is a promising WR heading into this third season, no one will mistake him for elite just yet.
By yards per route run, Kupp (3.12) and Adams (2.81) were 1st and 3rd in the NFL in 2021. Peoples-Jones earned 1.46 yards per route run, below the NFL average of 1.52 over the past 3 seasons.
Perceived Velocity – While physics would suggest the velocity of a pitch is consistent from Point A to Point B, how fast a pitcher throws and how fast it feels to the hitter can be two different things. That’s where perceived velocity comes in. Given the release point for a pitcher (how far past the rubber they throw from), a pitch may seem faster than it really is, giving the hitter less time to react.
Statcast says, among those with at least 750 pitches this season, Atlanta’s Spencer Strider has the fastest perceived velocity (95.4 mph). In a previous nugget, I recommended investing in Strider for NL Rookie of the Year (+750 on FanDuel). In second place is Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler at 93.8 mph. He is 17-1 on FanDuel for NL Cy Young.
Kevin Durant’s Next Team – Though they often boasted the shortest odds in nearly all futures markets in the NBA last season, the Brooklyn Nets, the biggest sucker bet this side of the F Train, the one that could win it all as a 7-seed in the east but instead got swept in the first round…these Brooklyn Nets now have an epilogue: Kevin Durant wants out. Kyrie Irving will be gone as well, meaning their “Big Three” will all leave with one, single solitary playoff series win in two seasons. Unfulfilled, unvaccinated, undone.
Not long after the KD news broke, two teams that were reportedly bandied about were Phoenix and Miami. While both are title contenders next season, both have fundamental hinderances with one-on-one trades.
For a Phoenix trade, acquiring the obvious choices like Deandre Ayton and Mikal Bridges would mean Brooklyn would have to shed salary. For Miami, no trade can include an obvious choice like Bam Adebayo because you cannot have two players on max rookie contract extensions, and the Nets already have Ben Simmons who probably cannot be moved.
One team not discussed much but is a value play if you shop around is Memphis (7-1 on BetOnline). If the Nets are tanking, they can pick up Jaren Jackson Jr. who is missing the start of the season after recovering from foot surgery. They also have first-round picks and role players like Dillion Brooks, Ziaire Williams and Desmond Bane. Lastly, the Grizzlies finished second in the west and Ja Morant would probably pair well with a veteran superstar.
Conference Realignment – USC joined what’s now the Pac-12 Conference in 1922. UCLA followed just six years later.
So much for a century of commitment.
Both the Trojans and Bruins are bolting for the Big Ten in 2024. The reception here in Los Angeles has been one of shock that the news was never leaked, horror at the ensuing travel schedules and understanding that each school stands to make an additional $60 million annually.
The rest of the country has already used Hollywood stereotypes to tease USC and UCLA once football road games commence:
The Football Analytics Show on YouTube – Missed some of the past podcast episodes? Do you like skipping around the parts of the podcast (e.g. process vs predictions) that you like best?
Some of the more popular recent episodes of The Football Analytics Show are now available on YouTube. With a simple click, you can skip to various segments on the podcast. To check it out:
- How to get sports betting accounts – Long time betting partners Mike Craig and Mark Scalley discuss the one thing to know about scaling your sports betting business.
- Matt Metcalf on sports betting and bookmaking – The sports book director at Circa Sports was very honest about his process but also frustrations with his work.
- Matt Courchene on the Data Golf predictions – Learn more about the golf analytics that have significant market influence. The Open Championship is less than two weeks away.
Data driven betting information
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