THE POWER RANK

  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • CBB Rank
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member
  • Log in

Members: NFL win total

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

There are many reasons to be down Houston this season:

  • they traded away De’Andre Hopkins, one of the league’s best wide receivers
  • they allowed 7 more points than they scored in 2019, as a 8-3 record in one score games helped them to a 10-6 regular season record
  • they start the season at Kansas City and at home vs Baltimore, the two best teams in the NFL

But they do have a key asset: Deshaun Watson. The quarterback is one of the most mobile and accurate in the NFL. Houston recently signed him to a long term deal with $110 million guaranteed.

In addition, my quarterback research revealed even more to like about Watson. Over the past 3 years, he has had an interception rate of 2.3%, just below the NFL average of 2.4%.

But looking forward, my research shows how bad ball rate, or interceptions plus passes defended per pass attempt, is the best way to predict interceptions. Watson has a sparkling bad ball rate of 8.9% compared to the NFL average of 11.3%. This suggests that Houston could be better in the turnover department this season.

Deshaun Watson sets a high floor for Houston as long as he can stay healthy. Houston’s defense isn’t great, but they’re better than Seattle’s last year. Seattle and Russell Wilson had a market win total of 8.5 heading into 2019.

Also, the defense has some upside if JJ Watt can stay healthy and return to his former production.

I like Houston over 7.5 wins.

To learn more about bad ball rate and how it’s predictive of interceptions, check out The Pick Report by clicking on “Download.”

Download

Filed Under: Member Content, National Football League

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Data driven betting information

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.

To sign up for The Power Rank's email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"

Popular Articles

  • How to predict interceptions in the NFL
  • 5 insights from academic research on predicting world soccer/football matches
  • How to win your NCAA tournament pool
  • The ultimate guide to predictive college basketball analytics
  • Accurate football predictions with linear regression
  • The surprising truth about passing and rushing in the NFL
  • Football analytics resource guide
  • The Reason You Can’t Avoid The Curse of Small Sample Size
  • The essential guide to predictive CFB rankings
  • How computer rankings make you smarter about sports
  • How to win your college football bowl pool
  • Do you make these 3 mistakes with college football statistics?
  • The Top 10 Things to Know About The Power Rank’s Methods

Recent Articles

  • 7-Nugget Saturday, February 4, 2023
  • Podcast: Hitman on NFL betting, Super Bowl LVII
  • Members: Super Bowl game and prop analysis
  • 7-Nugget Saturday, January 28, 2023
  • Cincinnati at Kansas City, AFC Conference Championship Game

© 2023 The Power Rank Inc., All rights reserved.

About, Terms of Use, Privacy Policy

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.


These are the goals with every correspondence, which cover bets on the NFL and college football.


To sign up for The Power Rank's free email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"


No thanks, I'll make my predictions without data and analytics.

{"cookieName":"wBounce","isAggressive":false,"isSitewide":true,"hesitation":"","openAnimation":false,"exitAnimation":false,"timer":"","sensitivity":"","cookieExpire":"","cookieDomain":"","autoFire":"","isAnalyticsEnabled":true}
  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • CBB Rank
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member