THE POWER RANK

  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • College Basketball
    • NFL
    • College Football
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
    • CFB yards per play
    • World Soccer/Football
  • Members
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member
    • COVID-19 Policy
  • Log in

Check out the 2018 baseball predictions

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Every morning, I post predictions for Major League Baseball games based on my team rankings and starting pitchers.

The team rankings consist of two parts:

  • preseason expectations based on win totals
  • expected runs adjusted for strength of schedule

In early May, the weight of the second factor that uses data from the current season overtakes the preseason numbers. This weight increases with each passing day of the season. For starting pitchers, I use the Zips predictions on Fangraphs.

May has usually been a good month for these predictions when look at the win rate of the team with the higher win probability. Let’s compare this with the team favored by the moneyline in the markets.

  • 2016: The Power Rank, 56.8%. Markets, 60.7%.
  • 2017: The Power Rank, 56.7%, Markets 56.2%.

The predictions have also been good early this season. From April 9, 2018 through May 8, 2018, The Power Rank has predicted 58.9% of game winners (231-185) compared to 57.8% for the median closing moneyline in the markets. I don’t expect this type of accuracy compared to the markets later in the season.

My numbers haven’t given up on teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers. Despite a 15-20 record early this season, the Dodgers are still ranked 9th when I take expected runs and adjust for strength of schedule.

The numbers do not account for injuries, so please make the necessary adjustments.

To check out the daily baseball predictions, click on the primary predictions page.

Filed Under: Uncategorized

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Predictions from Ed Feng

I use my Stanford Ph.D. in applied math to make football and March Madness predictions.

To get a sample of my best American football predictions and March Madness cheat sheet, sign up for my free email newsletter.

Enter your email and click on "Sign up now!"

Popular Articles

  • How to win your NCAA tournament pool
  • The ultimate guide to predictive college basketball analytics
  • How to predict interceptions in the NFL
  • Accurate football predictions with linear regression
  • The surprising truth about passing and rushing in the NFL
  • Football analytics resource guide
  • The Reason You Can’t Avoid The Curse of Small Sample Size
  • The essential guide to predictive CFB rankings
  • How computer rankings make you smarter about sports
  • How to win your college football bowl pool
  • Do you make these 3 mistakes with college football statistics?
  • The Top 10 Things to Know About The Power Rank’s Methods
  • 5 insights from academic research on predicting world soccer/football matches

Recent Articles

  • Podcast: Julian Packer on modeling and betting props
  • Podcast: Colin Davy on analytics for The Masters and Jeopardy
  • Podcast: Jordan Sperber on College Basketball Analytics and Strategy
  • Member: Final Four analysis
  • Members: Sweet Sixteen analysis for March 27-28, 2021

© 2021 The Power Rank Inc., All rights reserved.

About, Terms of Use, Privacy Policy

Get a sample of my best football predictions

While I usually save my best predictions for paying members of the site, I offer a sample in my weekly email newsletter.


To get this service, sign up for my free email newsletter.


Enter your email and click on "Sign up now!"

No thanks, I'll make predictions without data and analytics.

{"cookieName":"wBounce","isAggressive":false,"isSitewide":true,"hesitation":"","openAnimation":false,"exitAnimation":false,"timer":"","sensitivity":"","cookieExpire":"","cookieDomain":"","autoFire":"","isAnalyticsEnabled":true}
  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • College Basketball
    • NFL
    • College Football
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
    • CFB yards per play
    • World Soccer/Football
  • Members
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member
    • COVID-19 Policy