Every morning, I post predictions for Major League Baseball games based on my team rankings and starting pitchers.
The team rankings consist of two parts:
- preseason expectations based on win totals
- expected runs adjusted for strength of schedule
In early May, the weight of the second factor that uses data from the current season overtakes the preseason numbers. This weight increases with each passing day of the season. For starting pitchers, I use the Zips predictions on Fangraphs.
May has usually been a good month for these predictions when look at the win rate of the team with the higher win probability. Let’s compare this with the team favored by the moneyline in the markets.
- 2016: The Power Rank, 56.8%. Markets, 60.7%.
- 2017: The Power Rank, 56.7%, Markets 56.2%.
The predictions have also been good early this season. From April 9, 2018 through May 8, 2018, The Power Rank has predicted 58.9% of game winners (231-185) compared to 57.8% for the median closing moneyline in the markets. I don’t expect this type of accuracy compared to the markets later in the season.
My numbers haven’t given up on teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers. Despite a 15-20 record early this season, the Dodgers are still ranked 9th when I take expected runs and adjust for strength of schedule.
The numbers do not account for injuries, so please make the necessary adjustments.
To check out the daily baseball predictions, click on the primary predictions page.
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