I groaned when I first looked at my 2017 college preseason numbers. The numbers spit out Michigan as 30th, too low in my opinion.
This low rank comes from two factors. The model uses a 4 year window of team performance, which includes two mediocre years under Brady Hoke before Jim Harbaugh returned as coach. Also, Michigan only returns 5 starters from last season.
However, one expects better than 30th from a Jim Harbaugh team. While past performance is no guarantee of future success, he did wonders with a Stanford program. Check out the visual at the top of this post.
To adjust Michigan’s preseason rank, I considered two factors from the markets.
First, consider Michigan’s win total based on their schedule. They have difficult, toss up type games against Florida at a neutral site, at Wisconsin, at Penn State and Ohio State. Suppose they go 2-2 in these games.
For the remaining 8 games, Michigan will most likely lose one game despite being a substantial favorite in each game. Football lacks certainty, and some combination of poor play and turnovers can lead to unexpected losses like Michigan at Iowa last season.
This gives a win total of 9 for Michigan in 2017, the same total posted in the markets.
In addition, Michigan is a four point favorite against Florida in their opening game. I used these two factors to adjust Michigan, erring on the low side for each factor. This led to a rank of 9th for Michigan in 2017 with an expected win total of 8.8.
The preseason Coaches poll also ranked Michigan 9th.
The 2017 College Football Win Totals Report contains my projections for all 130 FBS teams. To get your copy, sign up for my free email list. Enter you best email and click on “Sign up now!”
Leave a Reply