I don’t follow hockey much.
Just want to be up front about that. I’m usually against posting numbers for a sport that I don’t have some insight from watching.
But I thought these win probabilities were interesting. Plus, they give me a good reason to watch some hockey this spring.
These win probabilities start with the NHL team rankings, which take the margin of victory in games and adjusts for strength of schedule. The results of shoot outs do not count as goals, since these goals do not reflect a team’s true ability on the ice.
Here are the rankings at the end of the 2013-2014 regular season. The record indicates a tie for both shoot out wins and loses. The rating at the far right indicates goals better than the average NHL team.
1. Boston, (51-22-9), 0.85
2. Anaheim, (51-22-9), 0.59
3. Chicago, (40-28-14), 0.56
4. St. Louis, (43-27-12), 0.46
5. San Jose, (41-24-17), 0.45
6. Pittsburgh, (44-29-9), 0.38
7. Colorado, (47-26-9), 0.35
8. Los Angeles, (38-30-14), 0.28
9. New York Rangers, (42-35-5), 0.24
10. Tampa Bay, (38-30-14), 0.21
11. Columbus, (39-37-6), 0.10
12. Dallas, (36-37-9), 0.09
13. Montreal, (40-33-9), 0.08
14. New Jersey, (35-34-13), 0.04
15. Minnesota, (36-31-15), 0.04
16. Philadelphia, (39-32-11), 0.01
17. Washington, (28-33-21), -0.02
18. Detroit, (34-34-14), -0.06
19. Nashville, (36-35-11), -0.10
20. Winnipeg, (29-39-14), -0.11
21. Phoenix, (31-38-13), -0.16
22. Vancouver, (31-39-12), -0.22
23. Carolina, (34-42-6), -0.27
24. Toronto, (29-41-12), -0.29
25. Ottawa, (30-39-13), -0.31
26. Calgary, (28-44-10), -0.36
27. New York Islanders, (25-43-14), -0.48
28. Edmonton, (25-50-7), -0.70
29. Florida, (22-47-13), -0.72
30. Buffalo, (16-57-9), -0.94
The Western conference dominates these rankings, as only Boston and Pittsburgh crack the top 8 from the East.
The rating difference between two teams implies a win probability, which are input into a recursive algorithm to calculate a series win probability. The multiplication of these series win probabilities gives the Stanley Cup odds in the visual.
Boston has a clear edge at the top of the rankings. Combined with a weak Eastern conference, they have the best chance to win the Stanley Cup at 29.3%.
For the latest NHL rankings, click here.
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