Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.
NFL player prop – Connor Allen of 4for4 Bets, an NFL prop expert, see a favorable situation for Seattle QB Drew Lock. Even though starting QB Sam Darnold won’t play against Arizona, Seattle is favored by 8.5 points.
In addition, Lock has been limited the past few weeks with an elbow injury, and WR Rashid Shaheed and OT Charles Cross will miss this game due to injuries. In contrast, all of Seattle’s running backs are healthy this week, a rarity this season.
Connor likes Drew Lock under 27.5 pass attempts, -125 available at DraftKings. Follow Connor Allen for all of his NFL insights.
Alabama at LSU, College Football Week 10 – On the Cover 3 podcast, betting expert Bud Elliott made the case for Alabama. The injury report looks favorable, as starters WR Ryan Coleman-Williams and C Racin Delgatty are now probable to play.
Bud also notes that LSU’s defense has thrived against bad quarterbacks like Tait Reynolds of Clemson. Alabama’s Keelon Russell is the best they have faced outside of Ole Miss’s Trinidad Chambliss.
Bud makes this LSU by 4, consistent with my model based on data from the current season (see below). He likes Alabama +6.5, -114 available at FanDuel.
Top 5 college football teams – Let’s completely forget about preseason priors, even though they still play a role in my member prediction. These rankings only use data like yards per play from the current season and adjust for strength of schedule based on my algorithms at The Power Rank (rating gives an expected margin of victory against an average FBS team):
- LSU, 25.4.
- Georgia, 25.4.
- Alabama, 24.6.
- Texas, 24.5.
- Notre Dame, 23.2.
A few takeaways. First, Alabama at LSU is an incredible game between two of the top teams in the country. Second, the Big Ten with their three primary national championship contenders this preseason don’t make this list until Ohio State at 8th and Indiana at 10th.
Establish the Run – As a quant, I’m supposed to support throwing the football over running the ball because of efficiency. Establish the pass.
However, this does not explain how the Buffalo Bills, as they lead the NFL in points scored per game this season without an elite pass offense. In an episode of The Football Analytics Show, I explore 1st down success rate or series conversion as a means to understand teams that run the ball well.
NFL humor – “Christian, what are two high safeties?”
Dallas DC Christian Parker: “Our safeties when they hang out with Anthony Richardson.” Annie Agar crushes it in her weekly NFL meeting.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend?
5-Nugget Saturday is my curated list of tips and analytics. The bets come from not only myself but also other trusted sources in the industry.
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