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Mississippi State at Alabama, College Football Week 5 – QB Kamario Taylor has Mississippi State off to a blazing 4-0 start, and this makes their road trip to Tuscaloosa much watch college football.
Korey Betts, who runs the excellent College Football Betting 900 podcast, likes both teams to score a lot but especially Alabama. They score touchdowns on 46% of their drives and score 3.7 points on average. Given his projections for number of drives, Korey projects 40 points for Alabama.
Korey likes Alabama over 33.5 points with the best price of -113 at Caesars. Follow Korey Betts on X and check the College Football Betting 900 podcast which posts four times a week.
NFL interception prop – Indianapolis and Washington travel to London to face off in the early Sunday NFL game. It seems like Marcus Mariota will start again for Washington, but the betting value shows up for Indianapolis QB Daniel Jones.
My interception model is based on how often a QB throws the football into a dangerous situation, and Jones has a long term bad ball rate of 13.5%, worse than the NFL average of 12.3%. My model gives a 55.0% chance Jones throws a pick against Washington.
There is value in Daniel Jones over 0.5 interceptions at certain sports books such as +105 at BetMGM. Members of The Power Rank get access to all of my interception props at 12:30pm Eastern today.
College football predictions – Here is a sample of predictions usually saved for paying members of The Power Rank.
- Michigan will beat Minnesota by 8.2 points on the road – Despite the loss to Iowa, Michigan QB Bryce Underwood played an exceptional game (except for the interception) against probably an elite defense. The market has moved towards Michigan at -6 despite potential key absences like edge John Henry Daley and WR Andrew Marsh.
- Alabama will beat Mississippi State by 6.0 points on the road – The market has moved slightly towards Mississippi State at +5.5. An upset win for the Bulldogs would put QB Kamario Taylor at the top of the Heisman race.
- Ohio State will beat Iowa by 12.0 points on the road – Ohio State had issues stopping the run against Texas and Illinois, and they rank 113th in my adjusted rush success rate allowed for now. I discussed how 3 Big Ten contenders have disappointed in the most recent episode of The Football Analytics Show.
How to be clutch – I try to avoid the self help genre. The world doesn’t need more bro, work harder content from an influencer.
However, when it comes to performance in high leverage moments, Tom Brady has the credentials with 7 Super Bowl wins in 10 appearances. His latest newsletter won’t shock you, but his authority makes it worth a read.
Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes
Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend?
5-Nugget Saturday is my curated list of tips and analytics. The bets come from not only myself but also other trusted sources in the industry.
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