These predictions are based on my world football/soccer rankings that take game results over a 5 year period and adjust for strength of schedule. These predictions assume reversion to the team mean over recent history.
England hosting Denmark
England has a 49.4% chance to win. Denmark has a 22.1% chance to win. There is a 28.5% chance for a tie. This assumes a reduced home advantage because of reduced capacity at Wembley Stadium in London.
Probability of over 2.5 goals is 0.350. Probability of under 2.5 goals is 0.650.
Spain vs Italy
Spain has a 40.1% chance to win. Italy has a 32.2% chance to win. There is a 27.7% chance for a tie.
Probability of over 2.5 goals is 0.422. Probability of under 2.5 goals is 0.578.