You want to make accurate game predictions for the 2018 football season, both in college football and the NFL. Any edge from analytics will help.
The most recent research at The Power Rank uses market win totals to rank teams for the 2018 season. It harnesses my Ph.D. background in applied math to find the rating that gives the posted win total.
Here are the top 25 college football teams by market win totals:
1. Clemson (11)
2. Alabama (11)
3. Ohio State (10.5)
4. Georgia (10.5)
5. Washington (10.5)
6. Oklahoma (10)
7. Michigan (9)
8. Wisconsin (10)
9. Auburn (9)
10. Penn State (9.5)
11. Notre Dame (9.5)
12. Michigan State (9)
13. Texas (8.5)
14. Miami (FL) (9.5)
15. Florida State (8)
16. Stanford (8.5)
17. Mississippi State (8.5)
18. USC (8.5)
19. TCU (7.5)
20. Oklahoma State (8)
21. LSU (7)
22. Texas A&M (7.5)
23. Oregon (8.5)
24. Florida (8)
25. Virginia Tech (8.5)
You can see how strength of schedule impacts these rankings. Michigan is ranked 7th, ahead of many teams with a higher win total than 9. In contrast, Boise State’s 10 wins doesn’t put them in the top 25.
You can see more of this research into market win totals in The 2018 Preseason Football Market Report, which contains:
- The ratings, or expected margin of victory against an average FBS team, for the top 25 college football teams.
- Game predictions for a sample of week 1 college football games
- How this method measures the impact of the Urban Meyer suspension
- Rankings and ratings for all 32 NFL teams
- Game predictions for all 16 week 1 NFL games
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