A few preliminaries. First, if you just want to fill in your bracket, I tried to make your life easy below. Just scroll down.
Second, I’ve talked a lot of finding value in picks. If you’ve missed any of this, check out this article in which I explain why Florida as champion is a pick with a lot of value.
Here, we’ll look at teams with value in earlier rounds.
Championship game
Gonzaga. The public does not believe in Gonzaga. Despite their one seed, only 10.8% of brackets on ESPN have the Zags making the final game. I’ve been watching Gonzaga for over a decade, and this is probably their best team over that span. They are third in our adjusted offensive efficiency (points per possession). Moreover, they don’t shoot many 3’s, making them less susceptible really poor offensive performances. By our numbers, Gonzaga has a 15.4% chance of making the championship game.
Final Four
Syracuse. Only 8.4% of brackets on ESPN have Syracuse making the Final Four. I guess people only saw the second half of the Big East championship game in which Louisville just destroyed them. Actually, the Orangemen were up on Louisville for most of the game, and they are ranked 17th in The Power Rank. They have a 11.4% chance of making the Final Four by our numbers.
Saint Louis. Coach Jim Crews is getting a lot of coach of the year chatter, but this team was clearly built by former coach Rick Majerus, who passed away this offense. The Billikens must get past Louisville to make the Final Four. However, they easily handled VCU pressing defense in conference this season, and Louisville plays much the same way. Our numbers give them a 7.5% chance to make the Final Four, while only 3.7% of brackets on ESPN have picked them.
Elite Eight
Creighton. Creighton runs one of the most fluid passing offenses in the country. Their star Doug McDermott isn’t going to take anyone off the dribble, but he moves without the ball better than anyone else I’ve seen in college basketball. Creighton is first in our adjusted offensive efficiency. They must get past Duke and Michigan State to make the Elite Eight. Our numbers give them a 17.7% chance, while only 2.5% of brackets on ESPN pick them this far.
Arizona. They are crazy underseeded as a 6 seed. Arizona is 15th in The Power Rank and has 18.4% chance to make the Elite Eight over Ohio State. Only 6% of brackets on ESPN had Arizona going this far past Ohio State.
North Carolina. It’s a bit crazy that such a brand name program like North Carolina could be undervalued by the public. I personally do not like their brand of basketball this year; not enough passing or defense. However, our numbers give the Tar Heels a 8.4% chance to make the Elite Eight past Kansas and Michigan. Only 5% of ESPN brackets have them this far.
Colorado. The value in picking Colorado in the Elite Eight comes from an absurd overvaluation of Miami, the 2 seed in this region. A crazy 73% of brackets have Miami this far on ESPN. This filters down to value in Colorado. The team from the Pac-12 has a 9.8% chance to make the Elite Eight, while essentially no one (0.9%) are picking them on ESPN.
Sweet Sixteen
If the favorite had over a 50% chance of making it to the Sweet Sixteen, I didn’t bother looking for value in other teams. Otherwise, Mississippi, Iowa State, St. Mary’s, San Diego State and Bucknell have value. I would write something about these teams, but I’m feeling sick, and I want you to focus on the rounds with more points above.
Small to Medium Pool Picks
I’ll try to make this as easy as possible to fill out your bracket. We’ll go region by region, then Final Four. Yes, this bracket is boring, boring, boring, as most of the top seeds make the Elite Eight. But the top teams usually make it that far.
East.
First round winners.
Louisville
Missouri
Oklahoma State
Saint Louis
Memphis
Michigan State
Creighton
Duke
Sweet Sixteen teams.
Louisville
Saint Louis
Michigan State
Duke
Elite Eight teams.
Louisville
Duke
Final Four.
Louisville
West.
First round winners.
Gonzaga
Pittsburgh
Wisconsin
Kansas State
Arizona
New Mexico
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Sweet Sixteen teams.
Gonzaga
Wisconsin
New Mexico
Ohio State
Elite Eight teams.
Gonzaga
Ohio State
Final Four.
Gonzaga
South.
First round winners.
Kansas
North Carolina
VCU
Michigan
Minnesota
Florida
San Diego State
Georgetown
Sweet Sixteen teams.
Kansas
Michigan
Florida
Georgetown
Elite Eight teams.
Kansas
Florida
Final Four.
Florida
East.
First round winners.
Indiana
North Carolina State
UNLV
Syracuse
Butler
Marquette
Illinois
Miami (FL)
Sweet Sixteen teams.
Indiana
Syracuse
Marquette
Miami
Elite Eight teams.
Indiana
Miami
Final Four.
Indiana
Final Four Games
Louisville over Gonzaga.
Florida over Indiana.
Florida over Louisville.
Uber Aggressive Pool
This is for those of you that won’t take my advice and get in a pool with over a 100 people.
East.
First round winners.
Louisville
Missouri
Oklahoma State
Saint Louis
St. Mary’s
Michigan State
Creighton
Duke
Sweet Sixteen teams.
Louisville
Saint Louis
St. Mary’s
Creighton
Elite Eight teams.
Saint Louis
Creighton
Final Four.
Saint Louis
West.
First round winners.
Gonzaga
Pittsburgh
Mississippi
Kansas State
Arizona
New Mexico
Iowa State
Ohio State
Sweet Sixteen teams.
Gonzaga
Mississippi
Arizona
Iowa State
Elite Eight teams.
Gonzaga
Arizona
Final Four.
Gonzaga
South.
First round winners.
Kansas
North Carolina
VCU
Michigan
Minnesota
Florida
San Diego State
Georgetown
Sweet Sixteen teams.
North Carolina
Michigan
Florida
Georgetown
Elite Eight teams.
North Carolina
Florida
Final Four.
Florida
East.
First round winners.
Indiana
North Carolina State
UNLV
Syracuse
Bucknell
Marquette
Colorado
Miami (FL)
Sweet Sixteen teams.
Indiana
Syracuse
Bucknell
Colorado
Elite Eight teams.
Syracuse
Colorado
Final Four.
Syracuse
Final Four Games
Gonzaga over Saint Louis.
Florida over Syracuse.
Florida over Gonzaga.
Good luck.