For those of you in a hurry, just scroll down to the bottom for my picks. These are based on the win probabilities in this interactive bracket.
There are two sets. One has my expected winners, with Arizona as the champion. Use this for small to medium pools. The other has my contrarian picks, with Virginia as the champion. If you want to throw away your money in a large pool (over 100 people), use these picks. Also, feel free to mix and match.
I’ve separated out the round of 64, since the picks are the same for the two brackets. Don’t sweat these games too much. They’re not worth enough points to be cracking the psyche of Mercer and whether they’ll make enough 3’s to down Duke.
If you want probability on your side in winning a pool, you should focus on the later rounds and the champion in particular. While a first round game is usually worth 1 point, the champion is worth 32.
Let’s look at two criteria for picking a champion.
Computer rankings
My core strength is accounting for strength of schedule in ranking teams. My algorithm assigns each team a rating, and the difference in ratings of two teams gives a predicted point spread in the tourney.
This visual shows the pre-tourney rating of the tourney champion over the last 12 years compared with the top team.
Most of these champions were highly ranked by The Power Rank. The visual also shows the rating of the best opponent the champion faced in their run. The champions with the lowest rating usually didn’t face the top team. The exception was UConn in 2004, a team with Emeka Okafor and Ben Gordon.
Pick a highly ranked team as a champion. The most updated college basketball rankings are here.
Three point shots
Teams that take a lot of 3 point shots have more variance in their performance. When they’re hot, they score a ton of points. When they go cold, it’s not pretty. To win the tourney, a team that shoots a ton of 3′s can’t afford to go cold in any of 6 games.
For the last 12 champions, this visual shows the fraction of field goal attempts from 3 point range. The average 3 point rate for the 2013-2014 season was 33%.
All these teams have moderate 3 point rates. Only Florida in 2006 shot more than a third of the field goal attempts from behind the arc.
This year, this analysis implies not picking Villanova and Creighton to win the tourney, as both teams shoot 45% of their shots from 3. Michigan (40%), Duke (39%) and Wisconsin (39%) also shoot a large fraction of 3’s.
In my top 10 tens teams, three teams have low 3 point rates: Arizona, Virginia and Kansas. I’m a little worried about Kansas because of the back injury to Joel Embiid, most likely be the first pick in the NBA draft.
However, it’s convenient that Arizona and Virginia are good teams that don’t shoot a lot of 3 pointers. These teams also have value as champion. Let me explain.
Finding value as a champion
In big pools, you can’t just pick the favorite that everyone else will pick. This year, it looks like most people are picking Florida as champion. As of Wednesday, over 37% of brackets on Yahoo picked Florida as champion.
By my numbers, Florida as a 8% chance to win the tourney. If they do win, you and many other people pick up 32 points. Then the winner comes down to who gets more points in the early rounds. With so many people in the running, the outcome comes down to luck. Grandma who picked Florida Gulf Coast in the Sweet 16 last year ends up winning.
If you want probability on your side, you need a champion with value. Arizona is that team this year. My numbers give them an 11% to win, while 7.7% of brackets on Yahoo has picked them. Thank you, UCLA, for beating them in the Pac-12 tourney.
Last year, this strategy had Florida as a value champion. However, I was a bit skeptical of my own pick. The Gators jacked up a lot of 3’s last year, with a 40% 3 point shooting rate. Florida lost to Michigan in the Elite 8. This year, Arizona has a 26.5% 3 point rate, which I like very much.
If you need to be really aggressive in a pool, pick Virginia. They are another team with a low 3 point rate, and they have a 5% chance to win it all. On Yahoo, only 2.9% of brackets pick this one seed to win.
The odds of winning a big pool.
Last, consider your odds of winning. You’re in a 100 person pool with Virginia as the champion. You have a 1 in 20 shot of winning. That means you’ll win one in every 20 years with this strategy. Those odds aren’t very good.
With no analytics or other guidance, you could estimate a 1 in 100 chance of winning that 100 person pool. Then analytics gives you a 5 times greater chance of winning. But that’s misleading bullshit. Even with advanced analytics, the odds of winning a large pool are small, and that’s why I don’t charge for this advice.
Good luck.
Under valued teams
There are other teams you should consider picking to win a few games. It’s unlikely that this will happen. However, these teams have value in the sense I talked about above. They seem undervalued by the public according to Yahoo’s numbers.
Seriously, who else has Pitt in the Elite 8? That’s right, no one. In the 15% chance they advance that far, you’re looking pretty good. And no, I don’t believe in this Jamie Dixon is a bad tourney coach crap.
Pitt. Jamie Dixon runs a great program year after year. He consistently recruits well, and this year’s team is strong on both sides of the ball (20th and 23rd on offense and defense by my efficiency rankings). They would be more than a 3 point underdog to Florida, but any other game would be very close.
Kansas. A brand program like the Jayhawks usually get overrated by the public. However, big man Joel Embiid is hurt. Embiid will most likely be the first pick in a loaded NBA draft, and he changes the game on both ends of the court. But are we over valuing this injury? I don’t know the answer, but if Embiid comes back strong or doesn’t mean as much as we thought, Kansas has value as a Final Four team.
Connecticut. Picking them to the Elite 8 is all about value. Only 4.7% picked them this far in Yahoo’s numbers, while I give them a 12.4% chance to make the Elite 8. Villanova is a good team but shoots a ton of 3’s. Iowa State is a bit overrated as a 3 seed.
Oregon. The West region has 6 teams that shoot greater than 38% from 3 point range. Don’t be shocked to see teams scoring points in the 90’s. On the bottom part of the bracket, Creighton and Wisconsin are overvalued, leaving room for an Oregon team to sneak through.
Wichita State. Only in a messed up world is a one seed a value pick for the Final Four. Everyone loves Louisville, and with good reason. They are the 2nd ranked team in The Power Rank. However, Wichita State isn’t far behind at 5th. They have a great point guard in Fred van Fleet and surprising athleticism up front.
Round of 64 winners
Don’t waste your time thinking about these games. Not enough points to make it worth your while.
Starting in the top right, we go clockwise by region.
West, Round of 64:
Arizona
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma
San Diego State
Baylor
Creighton
Oregon
Wisconsin
Midwest, Round of 64:
Wichita State
Kentucky
Saint Louis
Louisville
Iowa (Tennessee if they win play in game)
Duke
Texas
Michigan
East, Round of 64:
Virginia
Memphis
Cincinnati
Michigan State
North Carolina
Iowa State
Connecticut
Villanova
South, Round of 64:
Florida
Pittsburgh
VCU
UCLA
Ohio State
Syracuse
New Mexico
Kansas
Bracket for Small Pool, or teams expected to win
Champion: Arizona.
Starting in the top right, we go clockwise by region.
West, Round of 32:
Arizona
San Diego State
Creighton
Wisconsin
West, Sweet 16:
Arizona
Wisconsin
West, Elite 8:
Arizona
Midwest, Round of 32:
Wichita State
Louisville
Duke
Michigan
Midwest, Sweet 16:
Louisville
Duke
Midwest, Elite 8:
Louisville
East, Round of 32:
Virginia
Michigan State
Iowa State
Villanova
East, Sweet 16:
Virginia
Villanova
East, Elite 8:
Virginia
South, Round of 32:
Florida
UCLA
Syracuse
Kansas
South, Sweet 16:
Florida
Kansas
South, Elite 8:
Florida
Final Four:
Florida over Virginia
Arizona over Louisville
Arizona over Florida
Bracket for Large Pool, or teams with value
Champion: Virginia.
Starting in the top right, we go clockwise by region.
West, Round of 32:
Arizona
San Diego State
Creighton
Oregon
West, Sweet 16:
Arizona
Oregon
West, Elite 8:
Arizona
Midwest, Round of 32:
Wichita State
Louisville
Iowa (or Tennessee if they win play in game)
Michigan
Midwest, Sweet 16:
Wichita State
Michigan
Midwest, Elite 8:
Wichita State
East, Round of 32:
Virginia
Michigan State
Iowa State
Connecticut
East, Sweet 16:
Virginia
Connecticut
East, Elite 8:
Virginia
South, Round of 32:
Pittsburgh
UCLA
Ohio State
Kansas
South, Sweet 16:
Pittsburgh
Kansas
South, Elite 8:
Kansas
Final Four:
Virginia over Kansas
Arizona over Wichita State
Virginia over Arizona