Podcast: Matthew Holt on how sportsbooks use football analytics

On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, I talk with Matthew Holt, the Chief Operating Officer at CG Technologies and the guy who sets the opening lines in Nevada. Among other topics, we discuss:

  • How sportsbooks use analytics to set market values
  • How much gathering injury data has changed the past 12 years
  • The markets that Matthew suggests for finding value
  • The subjective adjustments that sportsbooks and bettors must make to the numbers
  • The crazy odds for the New York Jets under 4.5 wins this NFL preseason

Matthew was a joy to talk with and even offered his help to anyone interested in getting into the sports world.

After the interview, I discuss my predicted total in Texas Tech at West Virginia and the pass defense of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Listen at 36:02.

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Podcast: Joe Fortenbaugh on The Sharp 600, NFL in 2017

On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, I talk with Joe Fortenbaugh, host of The Sharp 600 podcast and football betting expert. Among other topics, we discuss:

  • The amazing way in which Joe broke into the sports world. A must listen whether you want to follow in his footsteps or land a date after getting a number. Listen at 2:20.
  • How the new podcast The Sharp 600 came about. 600 refers to the number of second of each show.
  • Joe’s take on how analytics has become a part of sports media and betting.
  • The NFL team that has most surprised Joe early this season

Joe also had an awesome book recommendation that reminds us to keep things in perspective.

After the interview, I do my own segment on NFL pass rankings by adjusted yards per play. This includes a discussion of how I develop a total points prediction for Jacksonville at Pittsburgh this weekend.

You can read about my NFL pass rankings here, or listen at 28:51.

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Podcast: Rufus Peabody on College Football, NFL predictions

On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, Rufus Peabody, professional sports bettor and creator of Massey-Peabody football analytics, joins me. Rufus is one of the sharpest young minds working in sports analytics, and we discuss the following:

  • The technique Massey-Peabody uses to balance preseason expectations with incoming data for the current season.
  • The reason Rufus is down on Oklahoma State’s offense
  • How his game grades see USC this season
  • How bad Alabama beat up Vanderbilt, and the odds the Crimson Tide win the national title
  • The number of points the Los Angeles Rams have moved up in Massey-Peabody

After the interview, I do my own segment on the college football totals predictions available for members of The Power Rank. Listen at 33:00.

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Podcast: Brian Fremeau on FEI College Football Rankings, Notre Dame

On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, I’m joined by Brian Fremeau, creator of the FEI college football rankings based on points per possession. Among other topics, we discuss:

  • The game that so infuriated him that he started digging into college football numbers
  • How his points per possession approach back in 2003 was way ahead of its time
  • How he started writing for Football Outsiders and ESPN
  • A prediction for Notre Dame at Michigan State by both FEI and The Power Rank
  • The data visualization book that every data scientist should have

After the interview, I discuss how at this point in the season you have to balance a small sample size of games with preseason expectations, and how this applies to Duke at North Carolina. Listen at 29:02.

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Podcast: Drew Martin on Predicting College Football for Small Schools

On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, I welcome Drew Martin from Sports Book Review. He’s also my co-host on the new show Man vs Machine, where we contrast his football based approach to handicapping with my numbers.

Among other topics, we discuss:

  • Why he decided to leave JP Morgan to enter the sports world
  • How being a first team all county QB at a Florida high school helps his handicapping
  • His process for studying teams from the Sun Belt, Conference USA and the MAC
  • How the show Man vs Machine originated
  • The Florida team Drew thinks will have value in the markets

After the interview, I do my own segment on small sample size, and how it might affect the NFL games you want to watch in Week 2. Listen at 22:30.

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