Podcast: Brian Fremeau on FEI College Football Rankings, Notre Dame

On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, I’m joined by Brian Fremeau, creator of the FEI college football rankings based on points per possession. Among other topics, we discuss:

  • The game that so infuriated him that he started digging into college football numbers
  • How his points per possession approach back in 2003 was way ahead of its time
  • How he started writing for Football Outsiders and ESPN
  • A prediction for Notre Dame at Michigan State by both FEI and The Power Rank
  • The data visualization book that every data scientist should have

After the interview, I discuss how at this point in the season you have to balance a small sample size of games with preseason expectations, and how this applies to Duke at North Carolina. Listen at 29:02.

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Podcast: Drew Martin on Predicting College Football for Small Schools

On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, I welcome Drew Martin from Sports Book Review. He’s also my co-host on the new show Man vs Machine, where we contrast his football based approach to handicapping with my numbers.

Among other topics, we discuss:

  • Why he decided to leave JP Morgan to enter the sports world
  • How being a first team all county QB at a Florida high school helps his handicapping
  • His process for studying teams from the Sun Belt, Conference USA and the MAC
  • How the show Man vs Machine originated
  • The Florida team Drew thinks will have value in the markets

After the interview, I do my own segment on small sample size, and how it might affect the NFL games you want to watch in Week 2. Listen at 22:30.

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Podcast: Bill Connelly on College Football Predictions for Week 2, 2017

It might as well be New Year’s Day with this week’s college football games.

  • Oklahoma at Ohio State
  • Stanford at USC
  • Auburn at Clemson
  • Georgia at Notre Dame

On the latest episode of The Football Analytics Show, I discuss the predictions for these games with Bill Connelly, college football analytics expert and SB Nation writer extraordinaire.

In addition to breaking down these games, we also discuss how he has written a preview for each FBS team for seven years running. Bill also describes his research on the importance of success rate in predicting football games.

After the interview with Bill, I come back with a short segment on the Oakland Raiders, a team that I think the markets have wrong. Listen at 36:00.

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Podcast: Jonathan Bales and analytics for Daily Fantasy Sports

On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, I welcome Jonathan Bales, Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) player and founder of Fantasy Labs. We have a fascinating conversation on the following:

  • His bold approach to breaking into the DFS world only 5 years ago
  • The unique way in which Fantasy Lab gives you an edge in playing DFS
  • How contrarian thinking applies to both tournaments in DFS and March Madness pools
  • The unexpected product announcement Jonathan makes on the show; it has to do with props
  • How working for free lets you break into a new field

Please go check out Jonathan’s personal site, one of my favorite places on the internet.

After the interview, I do my own segment on some new NFL preseason rankings, which come from market data. The rating on New England is particularly interesting. Listen at 28:10.

Finally, I talk with David Nasternak, the Michigan super fan and sound engineer for this podcast, on the Michigan versus Florida game. Listen at 32:55.

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Podcast: Aaron Schatz on predicting the 2017 NFL season

On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, I talk with Aaron Schatz, founder of Football Outsiders. We have a wide ranging conversation on the following topics:

  • How Aaron got on the Late Show with Seth Myers
  • The surprising truth about passing and rushing in the NFL, and how it’s been that way for 30 years
  • The coach that defies the odds and makes his team better
  • Why the Rams won’t be as bad as you think in 2017
  • The NFL team due for a steep decline in 2017 due to their defense

My apologies for butchering his name in the introduction of the podcast, but I do get it right I introduce him.

You can check out the FO Almanac for 2017, which I highly recommend, and their other products here.

After the interview with Aaron, I’m back for a college football win total prediction with value in the markets (35:49). Those Big 12 teams need a pass defense.

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