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NFL QB bad ball, interception rates

Bad balls are the sum of interceptions and passes defended. The latter includes plays in which a defender gets a hand on the ball or jars the ball loose.

Bad ball rate is bad balls divided by pass attempts. My research has shown this quantity over a three year window (2020 to 2022) is predictive of future interception rate. For a quick summary in written format, click here. For a more in depth analysis in audio format, click here.

This table shows bad ball rate, interception rate and pass attempts, first for the past three season and then the most recent season.

QB name Bad ball 3 year Pick 3 year Atts 3 year Bad ball current Pick current Atts current
NFL Avg 11.55 2.28 57730 12.19 2.29 19037
Kyler Murray 10.40 2.12 1462 11.96 1.78 393
Colt McCoy 10.07 1.68 298 8.33 2.27 132
Desmond Ridder 14.78 0.00 115 14.78 0.00 115
Taylor Heinicke 14.36 2.70 815 14.40 2.33 257
Andy Dalton 12.42 2.74 950 12.93 2.37 379
Justin Fields 12.88 3.56 590 13.35 3.42 322
Dak Prescott 11.43 2.41 1330 13.15 3.66 464
Cooper Rush 14.90 1.92 208 16.15 1.86 161
Jared Goff 9.77 1.67 1679 10.05 1.19 587
Jordan Love 12.05 3.61 83 10.00 0.00 20
Matt Stafford 9.80 2.42 1571 8.58 2.64 303
Kirk Cousins 11.64 1.93 1761 12.74 2.05 683
Derek Carr 11.07 2.24 1698 13.47 2.77 505
Daniel Jones 11.55 1.71 1342 10.71 1.13 532
Tyrod Taylor 10.64 3.19 188 11.11 11.11 9
Jalen Hurts 12.70 1.79 1173 11.13 1.09 548
Marcus Mariota 11.01 3.06 327 10.74 3.02 298
Trey Lance 17.65 2.94 102 9.68 3.23 31
Brock Purdy 11.54 1.71 234 11.54 1.71 234
Geno Smith 12.29 1.84 708 12.32 1.97 609
Baker Mayfield 12.17 2.30 1307 14.33 2.39 335
Sam Howell 10.53 5.26 19 10.53 5.26 19
Lamar Jackson 10.44 2.74 1130 9.51 2.15 326
Josh Allen 10.18 2.09 2054 12.81 2.62 648
Joe Burrow 12.51 1.96 1782 11.96 1.95 719
Deshaun Watson 9.24 1.68 714 13.10 2.98 168
Russell Wilson 10.13 2.11 1471 12.22 2.28 483
Jarrett Stidham 14.17 4.72 127 13.25 3.61 83
Davis Mills 10.19 2.86 873 10.21 3.12 480
Gardner Minshew 9.44 1.93 466 14.67 4.00 75
Trevor Lawrence 12.06 2.35 1277 11.59 1.93 673
Patrick Mahomes 7.91 1.61 2238 7.99 1.60 751
Mike White 17.21 3.90 308 17.14 2.29 175
Jimmy Garoppolo 12.80 2.50 961 13.31 1.30 308
Justin Herbert 11.28 1.74 2013 10.66 1.35 741
Tua Tagovailoa 11.49 2.13 1079 12.25 2.00 400
Mac Jones 11.57 2.59 1003 12.39 2.48 444
Bailey Zappe 10.87 3.26 92 10.87 3.26 92
Aaron Rodgers 8.07 1.29 1709 9.76 2.21 543
Zach Wilson 12.28 2.87 627 12.40 2.89 242
Kenny Pickett 13.33 2.31 390 13.33 2.31 390
Mitch Trubisky 12.23 2.72 515 14.44 2.78 180
Ryan Tannehill 13.32 2.23 1389 15.38 1.85 325
Malik Willis 18.03 4.92 61 18.03 4.92 61
Tyler Huntley 12.21 2.33 344 12.23 2.88 139
PJ Walker 16.67 4.82 228 16.04 2.83 106
Josh Dobbs 13.70 2.74 73 14.71 2.94 68
Trevor Siemian 16.97 1.83 218 7.69 3.85 26
Brian Hoyer 14.63 2.44 41 0.00 0.00 6
Nick Mullens 14.92 3.40 382 8.00 4.00 25
Jameis Winston 11.50 2.79 287 13.16 4.39 114
Drew Lock 12.61 3.06 555 0.00 0.00 0
Jacoby Brissett 11.17 1.67 600 11.72 1.63 367
Matt Ryan 13.13 2.18 1653 13.79 2.80 464
Sam Ehlinger 16.83 2.97 101 16.83 2.97 101
Carson Wentz 12.29 2.49 1245 11.66 3.18 283

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  • About
    • About The Power Rank
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