Bad balls are the sum of interceptions and passes defended. The latter includes plays in which a defender gets a hand on the ball or jars the ball loose.
Bad ball rate is bad balls divided by pass attempts. My research has shown this quantity over a three year window (2020 to 2022) is predictive of future interception rate. For a quick summary in written format, click here. For a more in depth analysis in audio format, click here.
This table shows bad ball rate, interception rate and pass attempts, first for the past three season and then the most recent season.
| QB name | Bad ball 3 year | Pick 3 year | Atts 3 year | Bad ball current | Pick current | Atts current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL Avg | 11.55 | 2.28 | 57730 | 12.19 | 2.29 | 19037 |
| Kyler Murray | 10.40 | 2.12 | 1462 | 11.96 | 1.78 | 393 |
| Colt McCoy | 10.07 | 1.68 | 298 | 8.33 | 2.27 | 132 |
| Desmond Ridder | 14.78 | 0.00 | 115 | 14.78 | 0.00 | 115 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 14.36 | 2.70 | 815 | 14.40 | 2.33 | 257 |
| Andy Dalton | 12.42 | 2.74 | 950 | 12.93 | 2.37 | 379 |
| Justin Fields | 12.88 | 3.56 | 590 | 13.35 | 3.42 | 322 |
| Dak Prescott | 11.43 | 2.41 | 1330 | 13.15 | 3.66 | 464 |
| Cooper Rush | 14.90 | 1.92 | 208 | 16.15 | 1.86 | 161 |
| Jared Goff | 9.77 | 1.67 | 1679 | 10.05 | 1.19 | 587 |
| Jordan Love | 12.05 | 3.61 | 83 | 10.00 | 0.00 | 20 |
| Matt Stafford | 9.80 | 2.42 | 1571 | 8.58 | 2.64 | 303 |
| Kirk Cousins | 11.64 | 1.93 | 1761 | 12.74 | 2.05 | 683 |
| Derek Carr | 11.07 | 2.24 | 1698 | 13.47 | 2.77 | 505 |
| Daniel Jones | 11.55 | 1.71 | 1342 | 10.71 | 1.13 | 532 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 10.64 | 3.19 | 188 | 11.11 | 11.11 | 9 |
| Jalen Hurts | 12.70 | 1.79 | 1173 | 11.13 | 1.09 | 548 |
| Marcus Mariota | 11.01 | 3.06 | 327 | 10.74 | 3.02 | 298 |
| Trey Lance | 17.65 | 2.94 | 102 | 9.68 | 3.23 | 31 |
| Brock Purdy | 11.54 | 1.71 | 234 | 11.54 | 1.71 | 234 |
| Geno Smith | 12.29 | 1.84 | 708 | 12.32 | 1.97 | 609 |
| Baker Mayfield | 12.17 | 2.30 | 1307 | 14.33 | 2.39 | 335 |
| Sam Howell | 10.53 | 5.26 | 19 | 10.53 | 5.26 | 19 |
| Lamar Jackson | 10.44 | 2.74 | 1130 | 9.51 | 2.15 | 326 |
| Josh Allen | 10.18 | 2.09 | 2054 | 12.81 | 2.62 | 648 |
| Joe Burrow | 12.51 | 1.96 | 1782 | 11.96 | 1.95 | 719 |
| Deshaun Watson | 9.24 | 1.68 | 714 | 13.10 | 2.98 | 168 |
| Russell Wilson | 10.13 | 2.11 | 1471 | 12.22 | 2.28 | 483 |
| Jarrett Stidham | 14.17 | 4.72 | 127 | 13.25 | 3.61 | 83 |
| Davis Mills | 10.19 | 2.86 | 873 | 10.21 | 3.12 | 480 |
| Gardner Minshew | 9.44 | 1.93 | 466 | 14.67 | 4.00 | 75 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 12.06 | 2.35 | 1277 | 11.59 | 1.93 | 673 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 7.91 | 1.61 | 2238 | 7.99 | 1.60 | 751 |
| Mike White | 17.21 | 3.90 | 308 | 17.14 | 2.29 | 175 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 12.80 | 2.50 | 961 | 13.31 | 1.30 | 308 |
| Justin Herbert | 11.28 | 1.74 | 2013 | 10.66 | 1.35 | 741 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 11.49 | 2.13 | 1079 | 12.25 | 2.00 | 400 |
| Mac Jones | 11.57 | 2.59 | 1003 | 12.39 | 2.48 | 444 |
| Bailey Zappe | 10.87 | 3.26 | 92 | 10.87 | 3.26 | 92 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 8.07 | 1.29 | 1709 | 9.76 | 2.21 | 543 |
| Zach Wilson | 12.28 | 2.87 | 627 | 12.40 | 2.89 | 242 |
| Kenny Pickett | 13.33 | 2.31 | 390 | 13.33 | 2.31 | 390 |
| Mitch Trubisky | 12.23 | 2.72 | 515 | 14.44 | 2.78 | 180 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 13.32 | 2.23 | 1389 | 15.38 | 1.85 | 325 |
| Malik Willis | 18.03 | 4.92 | 61 | 18.03 | 4.92 | 61 |
| Tyler Huntley | 12.21 | 2.33 | 344 | 12.23 | 2.88 | 139 |
| PJ Walker | 16.67 | 4.82 | 228 | 16.04 | 2.83 | 106 |
| Josh Dobbs | 13.70 | 2.74 | 73 | 14.71 | 2.94 | 68 |
| Trevor Siemian | 16.97 | 1.83 | 218 | 7.69 | 3.85 | 26 |
| Brian Hoyer | 14.63 | 2.44 | 41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6 |
| Nick Mullens | 14.92 | 3.40 | 382 | 8.00 | 4.00 | 25 |
| Jameis Winston | 11.50 | 2.79 | 287 | 13.16 | 4.39 | 114 |
| Drew Lock | 12.61 | 3.06 | 555 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 11.17 | 1.67 | 600 | 11.72 | 1.63 | 367 |
| Matt Ryan | 13.13 | 2.18 | 1653 | 13.79 | 2.80 | 464 |
| Sam Ehlinger | 16.83 | 2.97 | 101 | 16.83 | 2.97 | 101 |
| Carson Wentz | 12.29 | 2.49 | 1245 | 11.66 | 3.18 | 283 |