How do the markets rank Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers?

Green Bay has been without QB Aaron Rodgers for 3 games, which lets us get a market estimate of his worth. We’ll do this through my market rankings which take closing point spread and adjust for schedule with my ranking algorithm.

After week 6, the markets rankings had Green Bay 5th in the NFL, with a rating of 3.9 points. This implies Green Bay would beat the average NFL team by about 4 points on a neutral field.

These current NFL market rankings only consider the 3 games for Green Bay since Rodgers got hurt.

1. New England, 8.07
2. Atlanta, 6.33
3. Pittsburgh, 4.71
4. Dallas, 4.49
5. Kansas City, 4.38
6. Seattle, 3.75
7. Philadelphia, 2.53
8. Los Angeles Rams, 1.98
9. Carolina, 1.84
10. New Orleans, 1.72
11. Tennessee, 1.52
12. Oakland, 1.20
13. Denver, 1.11
14. Minnesota, 0.99
15. Cincinnati, 0.01
16. Los Angeles Chargers, -0.05
17. Tampa Bay, -0.06
18. Baltimore, -0.12
19. Jacksonville, -0.19
20. Detroit, -0.67
21. Buffalo, -0.85
22. Washington, -1.04
23. Arizona, -1.32
24. New York Giants, -2.19
25. Houston, -2.22
26. Miami, -2.55
27. Chicago, -3.85
28. New York Jets, -4.55
29. Green Bay, -5.57
30. San Francisco, -6.21
31. Indianapolis, -6.21
32. Cleveland, -7.31

According to the markets, Green Bay has dropped into the bottom 5 of the NFL. They would now be expected to lose by 5.6 to the average NFL team on a neutral field.

While this 9.6 point drop seems too large for me, it does roughly explain the point spread against Baltimore. Giving 2.5 points for home field to Green Bay, these market rankings imply that Baltimore should be about a 3 point road favorite. The markets favor Baltimore by 2.

Members of The Power Rank have access to ensemble predictions that include these market rankings. To get a free sample of these predictions for both college football and the NFL, sign up for my free email newsletter.

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Podcast: Peter Jennings on analytics for Daily Fantasy Sports

On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, Peter Jennings, two time world champion at Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) and cofounder of Fantasy Labs, joins me for a wide ranging discussion on analytics for DFS. Among other topics, we discuss:

  • An advantage his background in poker gave him in DFS
  • The times of year with the most value in DFS versus the times you’re stuck playing other professionals
  • How to use the markets to gain an edge
  • The sport he watches to gain an edge, and the sport he avoids watching
  • Whether strategy or analytics is more important for the beginning player

After listening to the interview, it won’t surprise you how much success Peter has had in playing DFS and starting Fantasy Labs.

After the interview, I discuss my new research on college football bowl pools. Is there value in these contests? Listen at 32:29.

To listen on iTunes, click here.

Podcast: Kevin Cole on points added for NFL players

On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, Kevin Cole, a data scientist for football predictions, joins me to discuss his points added model for NFL skill players. Check out his work over at his site Predictive Football.

Among other topics, we discuss:

  • How the data on air yards, or how far the ball travels in the air, allows Kevin to break down contributions between quarterback and receiver
  • How one might use this calculation to adjust for injuries
  • The distinction between quarterbacks and running backs by points added
  • Why Bills QB Tyrod Taylor is rated so highly
  • Why Baker Mayfield could be a historically great QB prospect

After the interview, I have my own segment on the total in Oklahoma State at Iowa State. There’s an intriguing story why it’s so low. Listen at 31:58.

To listen to this episode on iTunes, click here.

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Podcast: Dan Fabrizio of Sports Insights on reverse line movement and the NFL

On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, Dan Frabrizio, the founder of Sports Insights, joins me to talk sports analytics and betting. Sports Insights provides a wide range of market analytics and betting picks.

Among other topics, we discuss the following:

  • Why Dan decided to start Sports Insights back in the internet dark ages of 1999
  • Why Sports Insights shows a long term record of picks instead of touting a recent hot streak
  • Whether recency bias still exists in the betting markets
  • How Dan views the injury to Packers QB Aaron Rodgers
  • What type of content to expect from Sports Insights after their acquisition by The Chernin Group

Dan also had an amazing choice for the person with whom he’d most like to have dinner.

After the interview, I discuss the randomness of explosive plays, and how this impacts Michigan at Penn State this weekend. Listen at 37:50.

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Podcast: Matthew Holt on how sportsbooks use football analytics

On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, I talk with Matthew Holt, the Chief Operating Officer at CG Technologies and the guy who sets the opening lines in Nevada. Among other topics, we discuss:

  • How sportsbooks use analytics to set market values
  • How much gathering injury data has changed the past 12 years
  • The markets that Matthew suggests for finding value
  • The subjective adjustments that sportsbooks and bettors must make to the numbers
  • The crazy odds for the New York Jets under 4.5 wins this NFL preseason

Matthew was a joy to talk with and even offered his help to anyone interested in getting into the sports world.

After the interview, I discuss my predicted total in Texas Tech at West Virginia and the pass defense of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Listen at 36:02.

To listen on iTunes, click here.

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