Introducing: The 2017 NFL Win Totals Report

You want insight into the 2017 NFL season. Any analytics that will help you pinpoint a win total for a team will help.

However, the salary cap levels the playing field for all 32 teams, making regression to the mean a harsh reality in the NFL. This makes last year’s numbers not so useful in projecting 2017.

Instead, The Power Rank takes a market based approach. The market are well developed for week 1, and CG Technologies in Nevada have spreads for each game from week 2 through 16 (the remainder of the season except for the last week).

I input this market data into my ranking algorithm to calculate NFL preseason rankings. In these results, the rating for each team gives an expected margin of victory against an average NFL team.

1. New England, 8.03
2. Pittsburgh, 4.67
3. Seattle, 4.50
4. Green Bay, 4.47
5. Atlanta, 3.92
6. Oakland, 3.15
7. Dallas, 2.74
8. Kansas City, 2.22
9. Baltimore, 2.01
10. New York Giants, 1.84
11. Carolina, 1.37
12. Tennessee, 0.73
13. Arizona, 0.52
14. Tampa Bay, 0.46
15. Philadelphia, 0.22
16. Minnesota, 0.02
17. Denver, -0.22
18. Cincinnati, -0.30
19. Indianapolis, -0.57
20. New Orleans, -0.59
21. Houston, -0.66
22. Los Angeles Chargers, -0.88
23. Detroit, -0.94
24. Washington, -0.98
25. Miami, -1.42
26. Buffalo, -1.94
27. Jacksonville, -2.65
28. Chicago, -4.67
29. Los Angeles Rams, -5.47
30. San Francisco, -6.35
31. New York Jets, -6.62
32. Cleveland, -6.62

These numbers and the schedule for each team gives an an expected win total. These are the projections for the top 5 teams.

1. New England, 11.4
2. Seattle, 10.2
3. Pittsburgh, 10.0
4. Green Bay, 9.8
5. Atlanta, 9.5

New England Patriots

The expected win total for the Patriots is interesting, as the market rankings imply a win total 11.4. This is quite a bit lower than the market total of 12.5 (-117 as of Tuesday, September 5th).

Not many will dispute New England’s status as the top NFL team heading into the 2017 season. Quarterback Tom Brady leads a potent offense that should thrive even without injured receiver Julian Edelman, especially with the return of Rob Gronkowski.

In addition, Coach Bill Belichick gives the Patriots every conceivable edge to win each game.

However, 12.5 wins is a big total which only allows for 3 losses during the regular season. Even the Patriots aren’t immune from bad luck like turnovers and unexpected poor play, especially with a 40 year old quarterback.

Get the 2017 NFL Win Totals Report

Hi, my name is Ed Feng, and I’m the founder of The Power Rank, this site that uses analytics to make accurate football predictions. My numbers and content have appeared in Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report, and Grantland among other media outlets.

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