College football playoff probabilities after week 11, 2017

Three teams have become the favorites to make the College Football Playoff: Oklahoma, Clemson and Alabama.

Don’t count out Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish got smoked by Miami in week 11, but they can still make the playoff if they win their remaining games against Navy and Stanford.

It helps Notre Dame’s playoff probability that they don’t play in a conference championship game. They can’t lose and fall that final week of the season.

However, my methods do account for the possibility that a team like Ohio State wins a conference championship game and jumps ahead of Notre Dame. There’s no certainty for the Fighting Irish.

Miami moved up into the top 4 of the committee rankings with their big win over Notre Dame. However, they will be 4.5 point underdog in the ACC championship game to Clemson, and it’s unlikely both teams make the playoff.

College football playoff probabilities after week 10, 2017

Penn State drops after their loss to Michigan State, and Oklahoma assumes the top spot after their win over Oklahoma State.

Remember, this list does not rank teams by who would win on a neutral field. This reflects the odds of making the college football playoff, which depends on a team’s remaining schedule.

Oklahoma still has TCU and West Virginia, but they get both of these teams at home. They also have a road trip to Kansas before a likely berth in the Big 12 championship game.

While it isn’t certain that Oklahoma wins these remaining games, it’s an easier path than teams like Georgia and Notre Dame.

Georgia travels to Auburn for a rivalry game with enormous college football playoff implications. If they win, you’ll see their playoff probability rise next week.

My numbers give Georgia a 46% chance to win at Auburn. The win probability should perhaps be higher given that Auburn has injury issues on their offensive line.

Notre Dame travels south to play undefeated Miami. My numbers make this a 50-50 game.

I might lean a bit towards Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have the best rushing attack in the nation with an experienced offensive line and running back Josh Adams. Miami has struggled this season against the run, as they rank 26th in my adjusted yards per carry.

If Miami can slow down the ground game and make Brandon Wimbush throw, they give themselves the edge. Otherwise, it could be a long night for the Hurricanes.

For more on the methods behind these calculations, click here.

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Podcast: NFL Injuries, College Football Playoff Probabilities and Mailbag

This episode of The Football Analytics Show comes in 3 parts.

In part 1, I ask how many points RB Ezekiel Elliott, who got suspended for 6 games, is worth. How does this compare with QB Aaron Rodgers?

In part 2, David joins me to discuss my college football playoff probabilities.

  • Why does Penn State have the highest probability?
  • Why is Georgia so low?
  • Can Notre Dame survive their remaining schedule?

In part 3, I answer questions from listeners. Topics include data sources, games with the most value and how to get a prediction from adjusted yards per play.

To listen on iTunes, click here.

To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

Analysis of 2016 College Football Playoff Semi-final games

Let’s not coronate Alabama champion just yet. Over on Bleacher Report, I wrote about the College Football Playoff from an analytics perspective.

Alabama is the clear favorite, and I even like their chances to cover two touchdowns against Washington in the first semi-final.

But that dang football bounces in funny ways sometimes. A few turnovers here, maybe some subpar play from Nick Saban’s team, you never know.

Ohio State and Clemson features some interesting match ups, as both teams have their strengths on offense and defense.

To check out my analysis, click here.

Win probabilities for the college football playoff, 2016

With the field set for the college football playoff, these are my member numbers for the semi-final games.

  • Alabama will beat Washington by 9.1 points (76.1 percent win probability).
  • Ohio State will beat Clemson by 2.7 points (58.5 percent win probability).

For the championship game, these are odds for possible match ups.

  • Alabama will beat Ohio State by 7.1 points (71.1 percent win probability)
  • Alabama will beat Clemson by 9.8 points (77.7 percent win probability).
  • Ohio State will beat Washington by 2.0 points (56.3 percent win probability).
  • Washington will beat Clemson by 0.7 points (52.2 percent win probability).

A lot more analysis is forth coming.

Numbers for all bowl games are available to members. To learn more, click here.