Cluster Luck

In baseball, teams have little control over the clustering of hits. Hence, we can use run creation formulas to estimate a team’s luck in clustering hits.

This table (updated daily) shows cluster luck for MLB teams in units of runs. A positive number implies good luck in all cases, e.g. positive cluster luck on defense implies a team allowed fewer runs than expected.

Rnk Team Total Off Def
1 Chicago White Sox 20.5 10.5 10.1
2 Texas 17.8 15.7 2.1
3 Milwaukee 14.2 3.1 11.0
4 Arizona 12.0 9.5 2.5
5 Baltimore 11.5 -2.2 13.8
6 Seattle 10.0 6.0 4.0
7 Philadelphia 8.8 4.8 4.0
8 Miami 8.0 3.9 4.2
9 Chicago Cubs 6.0 5.6 0.4
10 Toronto 4.2 -2.9 7.1
11 Los Angeles Dodgers 3.3 -1.5 4.8
12 Los Angeles Angels 1.9 -0.1 2.0
13 Detroit -0.3 4.8 -5.2
14 Houston -1.0 -10.0 9.0
15 New York Yankees -1.1 -0.7 -0.5
16 Cincinnati -1.2 3.0 -4.2
17 Boston -1.6 -7.3 5.8
18 Cleveland -3.7 -1.0 -2.7
19 New York Mets -4.7 2.3 -7.0
20 St. Louis -5.1 -6.7 1.5
21 Colorado -5.8 2.8 -8.6
22 Tampa Bay -6.0 -5.5 -0.6
23 Washington -6.1 6.6 -12.8
24 San Francisco -6.8 -3.7 -3.1
25 Atlanta -7.9 -3.2 -4.7
26 Minnesota -8.4 -2.3 -6.1
27 Kansas City -9.3 -8.1 -1.2
28 Pittsburgh -9.6 -7.7 -1.9
29 San Diego -12.6 -4.5 -8.1
30 Oakland -30.1 -7.1 -23.0