Cluster Luck

In baseball, teams have little control over the clustering of hits. Hence, we can use run creation formulas to estimate a team’s luck in clustering hits.

This table (updated daily) shows cluster luck for MLB teams in units of runs. A positive number implies good luck in all cases, e.g. positive cluster luck on defense implies a team allowed fewer runs than expected.

Rnk Team Total Off Def
1 New York Yankees 65.1 37.9 27.1
2 St. Louis 52.0 33.4 18.6
3 Arizona 50.8 32.4 18.4
4 Oakland 47.9 39.2 8.7
5 Texas 44.4 50.1 -5.8
6 Philadelphia 42.1 15.1 27.0
7 Cleveland 42.0 8.5 33.5
8 Atlanta 32.8 17.6 15.2
9 Washington 22.5 35.6 -13.1
10 Chicago Cubs 21.1 7.7 13.5
11 Toronto 8.1 -2.4 10.5
12 Kansas City 6.2 17.2 -11.1
13 Chicago White Sox 5.4 13.8 -8.4
14 Minnesota 4.6 21.2 -16.6
15 San Francisco -1.5 14.8 -16.3
16 Los Angeles Dodgers -2.7 25.6 -28.3
17 New York Mets -4.9 -4.8 -0.1
18 Colorado -6.2 11.1 -17.2
19 Pittsburgh -9.4 18.9 -28.4
20 Miami -17.8 8.3 -26.1
21 Boston -24.6 6.8 -31.4
22 Los Angeles Angels -25.1 6.9 -32.0
23 Cincinnati -30.8 -14.7 -16.1
24 Baltimore -30.8 15.4 -46.2
25 Tampa Bay -33.5 -10.2 -23.3
26 Seattle -37.6 10.0 -47.6
27 Houston -37.7 -35.1 -2.5
28 Milwaukee -38.4 -32.9 -5.5
29 San Diego -56.5 -4.8 -51.7
30 Detroit -68.3 -46.9 -21.4