Cluster Luck

In baseball, teams have little control over the clustering of hits. Hence, we can use run creation formulas to estimate a team’s luck in clustering hits.

This table (updated daily) shows cluster luck for MLB teams in units of runs. A positive number implies good luck in all cases, e.g. positive cluster luck on defense implies a team allowed fewer runs than expected.

Rnk Team Total Off Def
1 Milwaukee 34.8 8.1 26.8
2 Texas 34.2 20.5 13.7
3 Chicago White Sox 21.3 19.2 2.0
4 Baltimore 19.9 -2.3 22.2
5 Detroit 12.5 8.4 4.1
6 Houston 11.6 -4.8 16.4
7 Los Angeles Dodgers 10.4 2.3 8.0
8 New York Mets 10.2 16.7 -6.5
9 Toronto 9.4 0.3 9.2
10 Chicago Cubs 9.1 7.9 1.2
11 Colorado 9.0 15.8 -6.8
12 Philadelphia 3.9 -1.0 4.9
13 Pittsburgh 3.3 -0.0 3.4
14 Los Angeles Angels 3.2 2.5 0.8
15 Washington 3.2 4.5 -1.3
16 Seattle 1.1 5.2 -4.0
17 St. Louis -1.1 -13.0 11.9
18 Cleveland -2.5 -3.6 1.1
19 Arizona -2.6 -5.9 3.3
20 Boston -4.4 -5.1 0.7
21 Cincinnati -5.3 -0.1 -5.1
22 New York Yankees -7.0 0.0 -7.0
23 Kansas City -8.5 -12.3 3.8
24 Minnesota -8.9 -5.8 -3.1
25 Atlanta -12.6 -1.9 -10.7
26 San Francisco -15.2 -6.5 -8.7
27 Tampa Bay -16.3 -9.3 -7.0
28 Miami -22.6 -8.6 -13.9
29 San Diego -34.6 -9.9 -24.7
30 Oakland -57.5 -18.0 -39.5