Cluster Luck

In baseball, teams have little control over the clustering of hits. Hence, we can use run creation formulas to estimate a team’s luck in clustering hits.

This table (updated daily) shows cluster luck for MLB teams in units of runs. A positive number implies good luck in all cases, e.g. positive cluster luck on defense implies a team allowed fewer runs than expected.

Rnk Team Total Off Def
1 Texas 48.6 34.9 13.7
2 Colorado 35.3 27.6 7.7
3 Los Angeles Dodgers 25.8 10.2 15.6
4 Arizona 24.4 11.4 13.0
5 Los Angeles Angels 20.2 11.0 9.3
6 Seattle 20.0 17.2 2.8
7 Boston 18.3 0.7 17.6
8 Milwaukee 18.1 -4.9 23.1
9 Baltimore 17.3 -5.8 23.1
10 Chicago White Sox 13.8 10.2 3.5
11 Pittsburgh 12.5 -3.9 16.4
12 Detroit 4.6 -1.0 5.5
13 Kansas City 4.3 -4.1 8.5
14 Houston -0.1 -8.5 8.4
15 New York Mets -0.9 -5.5 4.6
16 Chicago Cubs -1.2 0.5 -1.7
17 Cincinnati -2.3 -6.3 4.0
18 Philadelphia -6.4 -16.6 10.2
19 Washington -6.6 1.0 -7.6
20 New York Yankees -7.7 0.5 -8.2
21 Cleveland -7.7 -8.5 0.8
22 San Francisco -10.5 -7.8 -2.7
23 Atlanta -11.6 6.7 -18.3
24 Toronto -14.0 -12.1 -1.9
25 Minnesota -15.0 -10.9 -4.1
26 Miami -15.8 4.4 -20.2
27 Tampa Bay -17.1 -12.6 -4.4
28 St. Louis -20.8 -20.2 -0.6
29 San Diego -50.7 -21.2 -29.5
30 Oakland -69.2 -14.4 -54.7