Cluster Luck

In baseball, teams have little control over the clustering of hits. Hence, we can use run creation formulas to estimate a team’s luck in clustering hits.

This table (updated daily) shows cluster luck for MLB teams in units of runs. A positive number implies good luck in all cases, e.g. positive cluster luck on defense implies a team allowed fewer runs than expected.

Rnk Team Total Off Def
1 Philadelphia 39.9 16.6 23.3
2 New York Yankees 25.0 17.2 7.8
3 Cincinnati 22.9 9.4 13.4
4 Texas 18.6 19.9 -1.3
5 Colorado 14.6 16.7 -2.0
6 Cleveland 13.1 6.9 6.2
7 Minnesota 11.4 6.3 5.1
8 Chicago Cubs 9.1 0.4 8.7
9 Chicago White Sox 7.6 6.6 1.1
10 Arizona 7.5 2.0 5.5
11 St. Louis 7.1 9.3 -2.2
12 Toronto 6.8 7.5 -0.7
13 San Francisco 2.5 10.9 -8.5
14 Kansas City 1.6 1.9 -0.3
15 Oakland 0.6 7.6 -7.0
16 Los Angeles Angels 0.3 2.5 -2.2
17 Milwaukee -3.9 -6.0 2.1
18 San Diego -4.8 -3.1 -1.7
19 Los Angeles Dodgers -8.1 5.4 -13.6
20 Boston -8.8 7.8 -16.6
21 Seattle -10.0 11.2 -21.1
22 New York Mets -10.1 2.9 -12.9
23 Detroit -11.9 -7.4 -4.5
24 Tampa Bay -12.2 -18.5 6.2
25 Washington -13.6 5.9 -19.5
26 Atlanta -14.9 -9.4 -5.5
27 Baltimore -15.9 -2.8 -13.1
28 Miami -15.9 -10.3 -5.6
29 Pittsburgh -26.8 -8.6 -18.2
30 Houston -30.4 -22.5 -7.8