Cluster Luck

In baseball, teams have little control over the clustering of hits. Hence, we can use run creation formulas to estimate a team’s luck in clustering hits.

This table (updated daily) shows cluster luck for MLB teams in units of runs. A positive number implies good luck in all cases, e.g. positive cluster luck on defense implies a team allowed fewer runs than expected.

Rnk Team Total Off Def
1 Los Angeles Angels 81.2 22.5 58.8
2 San Diego 50.7 48.9 1.7
3 Pittsburgh 44.5 1.6 42.9
4 Kansas City 43.4 -1.6 45.0
5 Seattle 31.1 4.4 26.7
6 Texas 26.1 16.0 10.0
7 Cincinnati 25.8 16.6 9.1
8 Cleveland 24.9 7.7 17.1
9 Houston 20.3 -13.9 34.2
10 Washington 17.0 8.3 8.6
11 Baltimore 11.6 -23.1 34.7
12 New York Mets 7.3 -45.9 53.2
13 Chicago White Sox 2.7 -25.9 28.6
14 Chicago Cubs -0.4 13.0 -13.4
15 New York Yankees -6.2 -14.6 8.5
16 Milwaukee -7.2 -44.0 36.8
17 San Francisco -7.6 -20.5 12.9
18 Miami -7.8 -31.3 23.5
19 St. Louis -7.9 -5.0 -2.9
20 Toronto -18.3 -18.1 -0.2
21 Colorado -18.6 6.5 -25.2
22 Tampa Bay -23.1 -32.2 9.1
23 Philadelphia -26.1 -15.6 -10.4
24 Detroit -26.2 -34.0 7.7
25 Los Angeles Dodgers -26.7 4.7 -31.4
26 Arizona -27.6 -16.7 -10.8
27 Oakland -28.7 -9.6 -19.1
28 Boston -31.9 -11.2 -20.7
29 Minnesota -41.1 -23.7 -17.3
30 Atlanta -58.9 -25.9 -33.0