Cluster Luck

In baseball, teams have little control over the clustering of hits. Hence, we can use run creation formulas to estimate a team’s luck in clustering hits.

This table (updated daily) shows cluster luck for MLB teams in units of runs. A positive number implies good luck in all cases, e.g. positive cluster luck on defense implies a team allowed fewer runs than expected.

Rnk Team Total Off Def
1 Texas 44.6 48.1 -3.5
2 Colorado 44.5 31.7 12.8
3 Boston 41.4 13.3 28.2
4 Los Angeles Angels 39.2 19.5 19.8
5 Pittsburgh 31.4 3.6 27.8
6 Baltimore 24.9 -0.1 25.1
7 Milwaukee 23.3 -16.7 39.9
8 San Francisco 21.7 3.1 18.6
9 Los Angeles Dodgers 17.1 -7.9 25.1
10 Chicago White Sox 15.7 3.0 12.7
11 Arizona 12.5 -3.3 15.8
12 Kansas City 10.6 9.0 1.6
13 St. Louis 3.4 -10.3 13.7
14 New York Mets 3.0 -6.4 9.4
15 Cleveland 2.5 -10.3 12.8
16 Minnesota 1.4 -2.6 4.0
17 Atlanta 0.8 14.5 -13.7
18 Seattle -0.2 8.8 -8.9
19 Detroit -3.1 2.9 -6.0
20 Washington -6.4 -1.8 -4.6
21 New York Yankees -9.4 7.0 -16.3
22 Houston -13.0 -16.0 3.0
23 Miami -13.1 0.9 -14.0
24 Cincinnati -13.2 -17.1 3.9
25 Philadelphia -15.8 -35.4 19.6
26 Toronto -22.5 -19.6 -2.9
27 Chicago Cubs -35.5 -11.8 -23.7
28 Tampa Bay -51.5 -40.3 -11.1
29 San Diego -64.1 -28.1 -36.0
30 Oakland -75.3 -14.7 -60.6