Cluster Luck

In baseball, teams have little control over the clustering of hits. Hence, we can use run creation formulas to estimate a team’s luck in clustering hits.

This table (updated daily) shows cluster luck for MLB teams in units of runs. A positive number implies good luck in all cases, e.g. positive cluster luck on defense implies a team allowed fewer runs than expected.

Rnk Team Total Off Def
1 Arizona 42.3 20.5 21.8
2 Houston 27.3 13.4 13.8
3 Atlanta 19.8 9.4 10.4
4 Baltimore 18.7 -16.8 35.5
5 Los Angeles Angels 18.5 -4.9 23.3
6 Chicago Cubs 17.7 -4.5 22.2
7 Milwaukee 14.5 -0.5 15.0
8 Minnesota 9.1 -4.1 13.2
9 Boston 8.8 2.6 6.2
10 Washington 8.1 -2.2 10.3
11 Los Angeles Dodgers 7.9 2.4 5.6
12 Cleveland 6.0 7.8 -1.8
13 Texas 4.5 10.1 -5.6
14 Toronto 4.5 3.1 1.4
15 San Diego 3.6 8.3 -4.7
16 Oakland 1.9 9.2 -7.2
17 St. Louis -2.3 2.9 -5.2
18 Seattle -2.6 -4.9 2.3
19 Cincinnati -4.3 -12.3 8.0
20 Colorado -4.3 12.6 -16.9
21 Philadelphia -5.0 8.5 -13.5
22 Pittsburgh -6.9 8.0 -14.9
23 New York Mets -7.1 -9.4 2.3
24 Detroit -7.3 -3.6 -3.7
25 New York Yankees -12.1 1.8 -13.9
26 Kansas City -16.9 -13.4 -3.5
27 Miami -23.0 -12.6 -10.4
28 San Francisco -34.9 -21.3 -13.5
29 Tampa Bay -35.2 -20.3 -14.9
30 Chicago White Sox -37.4 -14.4 -23.0