Cluster Luck

In baseball, teams have little control over the clustering of hits. Hence, we can use run creation formulas to estimate a team’s luck in clustering hits.

This table (updated daily for 2019) shows cluster luck for MLB teams in units of runs. A positive number implies good luck in all cases, e.g. positive cluster luck on defense implies a team allowed fewer runs than expected.

Rnk Team Total Off Def
1 Texas 54.3 42.7 11.6
2 Philadelphia 47.7 16.4 31.3
3 New York Yankees 46.9 29.6 17.3
4 Colorado 31.2 39.6 -8.5
5 Cincinnati 26.1 11.8 14.3
6 Oakland 16.5 25.1 -8.6
7 St. Louis 15.8 12.6 3.2
8 Arizona 12.4 9.7 2.7
9 Atlanta 11.8 10.3 1.6
10 San Francisco 11.3 27.3 -16.0
11 Kansas City 10.0 11.7 -1.7
12 Toronto 9.2 3.6 5.7
13 Chicago White Sox 6.7 10.3 -3.6
14 Cleveland 5.0 -1.8 6.8
15 Chicago Cubs 3.4 -1.4 4.7
16 Los Angeles Angels 1.5 6.9 -5.4
17 Pittsburgh -1.3 -1.8 0.5
18 Miami -6.5 -3.0 -3.5
19 Minnesota -6.8 6.1 -12.8
20 Washington -10.0 14.8 -24.8
21 Tampa Bay -12.1 -7.2 -4.9
22 Boston -18.8 5.0 -23.7
23 New York Mets -25.8 -9.9 -15.9
24 Baltimore -25.9 9.7 -35.6
25 Los Angeles Dodgers -26.3 -6.0 -20.2
26 San Diego -27.8 1.1 -28.9
27 Detroit -29.4 -13.9 -15.5
28 Seattle -34.2 8.3 -42.5
29 Milwaukee -36.3 -25.5 -10.7
30 Houston -38.8 -32.6 -6.2