Cluster Luck

In baseball, teams have little control over the clustering of hits. Hence, we can use run creation formulas to estimate a team’s luck in clustering hits.

This table (updated daily for 2018) shows cluster luck for MLB teams in units of runs. A positive number implies good luck in all cases, e.g. positive cluster luck on defense implies a team allowed fewer runs than expected.

Rnk Team Total Off Def
1 Toronto 32.4 20.1 12.3
2 Houston 17.5 6.2 11.4
3 St. Louis 15.4 1.8 13.6
4 Los Angeles Angels 14.3 7.2 7.1
5 Atlanta 13.8 8.0 5.8
6 Boston 13.3 7.8 5.4
7 Chicago Cubs 10.5 8.5 2.0
8 Philadelphia 9.2 17.4 -8.2
9 Detroit 7.7 5.8 1.9
10 Arizona 6.7 6.0 0.7
11 New York Mets 6.2 8.3 -2.1
12 Pittsburgh 4.6 8.6 -4.0
13 Los Angeles Dodgers 3.0 4.0 -1.0
14 Cleveland 0.4 -3.7 4.1
15 Seattle -2.0 1.8 -3.8
16 Baltimore -2.5 -8.8 6.3
17 Colorado -4.1 1.3 -5.4
18 Miami -5.1 2.2 -7.3
19 Minnesota -5.4 -5.0 -0.4
20 Milwaukee -6.4 -8.7 2.3
21 Tampa Bay -8.3 1.4 -9.7
22 Oakland -8.6 -1.2 -7.4
23 San Francisco -9.1 -10.0 0.9
24 Cincinnati -10.3 -5.7 -4.6
25 Texas -10.6 -7.2 -3.3
26 San Diego -11.8 0.1 -11.9
27 Washington -12.3 -1.8 -10.5
28 New York Yankees -14.3 5.5 -19.8
29 Chicago White Sox -16.6 -5.4 -11.2
30 Kansas City -22.8 -8.5 -14.3