Cluster Luck

In baseball, teams have little control over the clustering of hits. Hence, we can use run creation formulas to estimate a team’s luck in clustering hits.

This table (updated daily for 2018) shows cluster luck for MLB teams in units of runs. A positive number implies good luck in all cases, e.g. positive cluster luck on defense implies a team allowed fewer runs than expected.

Rnk Team Total Off Def
1 Boston 37.0 14.0 23.0
2 Los Angeles Angels 34.3 3.3 30.9
3 Cleveland 32.2 20.4 11.9
4 Houston 32.0 21.7 10.3
5 Arizona 29.4 13.1 16.3
6 Atlanta 21.8 13.5 8.4
7 Minnesota 20.2 7.6 12.6
8 Chicago Cubs 18.3 -3.1 21.4
9 Texas 18.3 27.6 -9.4
10 Pittsburgh 16.5 16.3 0.2
11 Washington 13.9 -2.7 16.5
12 Detroit 5.4 4.7 0.7
13 Philadelphia 2.1 6.3 -4.2
14 Cincinnati 0.2 -7.0 7.2
15 New York Yankees -0.5 5.5 -6.0
16 Milwaukee -1.6 -5.9 4.3
17 Oakland -2.7 4.7 -7.4
18 Los Angeles Dodgers -6.3 -7.5 1.2
19 Baltimore -7.0 -20.2 13.2
20 St. Louis -12.4 5.1 -17.5
21 Toronto -12.5 -9.5 -3.0
22 San Diego -14.7 3.3 -18.0
23 Colorado -15.6 6.0 -21.6
24 San Francisco -16.4 -15.5 -0.8
25 New York Mets -16.8 -6.9 -9.9
26 Kansas City -18.4 -11.0 -7.4
27 Seattle -20.8 -12.6 -8.2
28 Miami -29.0 -3.4 -25.6
29 Tampa Bay -33.8 -7.9 -25.9
30 Chicago White Sox -55.8 -2.9 -52.8