Cluster Luck

In baseball, teams have little control over the clustering of hits. Hence, we can use run creation formulas to estimate a team’s luck in clustering hits.

This table (updated daily for 2018) shows cluster luck for MLB teams in units of runs. A positive number implies good luck in all cases, e.g. positive cluster luck on defense implies a team allowed fewer runs than expected.

Rnk Team Total Off Def
1 Cleveland 64.7 28.5 36.2
2 Boston 64.2 46.1 18.2
3 Houston 44.0 34.9 9.1
4 Chicago Cubs 34.7 0.6 34.1
5 St. Louis 32.4 41.5 -9.1
6 Arizona 31.1 8.7 22.3
7 Texas 23.4 33.8 -10.3
8 Minnesota 20.5 22.5 -2.1
9 Los Angeles Angels 20.1 13.9 6.3
10 New York Yankees 14.4 28.2 -13.7
11 Atlanta 13.6 19.3 -5.7
12 Pittsburgh 11.0 -1.3 12.3
13 Washington 6.1 -5.1 11.2
14 Oakland 5.5 25.1 -19.6
15 San Francisco 1.1 -8.5 9.6
16 Colorado 0.8 10.5 -9.8
17 Kansas City -5.0 -11.4 6.4
18 Milwaukee -8.4 -10.2 1.9
19 Los Angeles Dodgers -13.6 -16.3 2.7
20 Baltimore -14.5 -19.9 5.3
21 Detroit -20.5 6.3 -26.8
22 New York Mets -20.6 1.8 -22.3
23 Cincinnati -24.6 -27.9 3.4
24 Philadelphia -29.6 -4.0 -25.6
25 Seattle -29.7 -14.6 -15.0
26 Toronto -34.6 -19.9 -14.7
27 Miami -35.2 0.2 -35.4
28 San Diego -35.7 -13.2 -22.4
29 Tampa Bay -38.3 -12.1 -26.2
30 Chicago White Sox -63.0 -6.0 -57.0