Cluster Luck

In baseball, teams have little control over the clustering of hits. Hence, we can use run creation formulas to estimate a team’s luck in clustering hits.

This table (updated daily for 2019) shows cluster luck for MLB teams in units of runs. A positive number implies good luck in all cases, e.g. positive cluster luck on defense implies a team allowed fewer runs than expected.

Rnk Team Total Off Def
1 New York Yankees 58.1 37.6 20.5
2 Philadelphia 42.7 15.8 26.9
3 Texas 37.6 34.8 2.7
4 St. Louis 29.5 18.4 11.2
5 Cleveland 29.0 -0.9 29.9
6 Oakland 28.2 29.2 -1.1
7 Toronto 23.2 5.1 18.1
8 Arizona 17.5 16.2 1.3
9 Cincinnati 16.6 4.9 11.6
10 Atlanta 15.7 9.2 6.5
11 Chicago White Sox 14.6 15.1 -0.5
12 Kansas City 13.2 16.3 -3.1
13 Washington 7.5 22.2 -14.7
14 San Francisco 6.0 15.8 -9.8
15 Chicago Cubs 5.6 -5.1 10.7
16 Colorado 2.1 21.0 -18.8
17 Minnesota -3.4 12.1 -15.5
18 Miami -5.1 6.7 -11.8
19 Los Angeles Angels -6.8 18.6 -25.4
20 New York Mets -9.4 -8.2 -1.2
21 Los Angeles Dodgers -13.2 11.6 -24.8
22 Pittsburgh -20.5 3.1 -23.6
23 Tampa Bay -24.5 -20.6 -3.9
24 San Diego -31.9 1.1 -33.0
25 Boston -33.1 -2.3 -30.8
26 Seattle -33.4 5.7 -39.0
27 Baltimore -34.2 6.2 -40.3
28 Milwaukee -36.3 -26.5 -9.8
29 Houston -38.9 -31.2 -7.7
30 Detroit -48.5 -31.7 -16.7