Cluster Luck

In baseball, teams have little control over the clustering of hits. Hence, we can use run creation formulas to estimate a team’s luck in clustering hits.

This table (updated daily) shows cluster luck for MLB teams in units of runs. A positive number implies good luck in all cases, e.g. positive cluster luck on defense implies a team allowed fewer runs than expected.

Rnk Team Total Off Def
1 Boston 72.9 33.1 39.8
2 Pittsburgh 54.7 9.6 45.1
3 Los Angeles Angels 47.5 28.2 19.3
4 Colorado 41.3 14.1 27.2
5 Texas 32.1 54.9 -22.8
6 Cleveland 31.0 -6.1 37.1
7 Minnesota 23.0 13.5 9.5
8 Arizona 22.6 6.3 16.3
9 San Francisco 14.7 -7.7 22.5
10 Milwaukee 12.5 -25.5 38.1
11 Baltimore 12.4 -4.3 16.7
12 Chicago White Sox 12.0 7.1 4.9
13 Philadelphia 10.6 -15.8 26.4
14 Los Angeles Dodgers 9.9 -17.2 27.1
15 Chicago Cubs 3.7 18.1 -14.5
16 St. Louis 3.3 -8.2 11.4
17 New York Yankees 0.0 20.5 -20.5
18 Washington -2.1 7.1 -9.2
19 Miami -9.5 0.8 -10.3
20 Atlanta -9.6 2.5 -12.1
21 Houston -10.9 -4.5 -6.4
22 Kansas City -11.5 -7.7 -3.8
23 Seattle -16.0 -2.0 -14.0
24 Cincinnati -21.2 -19.0 -2.2
25 Toronto -23.9 -23.5 -0.4
26 Detroit -33.1 -17.3 -15.8
27 New York Mets -34.5 -24.5 -10.0
28 Tampa Bay -64.8 -46.4 -18.4
29 San Diego -65.1 -36.0 -29.1
30 Oakland -74.3 -25.2 -49.1