Cluster Luck

In baseball, teams have little control over the clustering of hits. Hence, we can use run creation formulas to estimate a team’s luck in clustering hits.

This table (updated daily for 2019) shows cluster luck for MLB teams in units of runs. A positive number implies good luck in all cases, e.g. positive cluster luck on defense implies a team allowed fewer runs than expected.

Rnk Team Total Off Def
1 New York Yankees 52.6 29.2 23.4
2 Philadelphia 49.5 16.0 33.5
3 Texas 49.3 48.4 1.0
4 Oakland 48.7 46.5 2.2
5 St. Louis 47.6 34.0 13.7
6 Atlanta 35.0 17.6 17.4
7 Arizona 33.6 21.9 11.7
8 Cleveland 29.0 -2.4 31.4
9 Chicago Cubs 22.1 7.2 15.0
10 Washington 18.2 31.0 -12.8
11 Kansas City 9.0 16.7 -7.8
12 Toronto 6.4 -5.8 12.2
13 Chicago White Sox 6.4 17.9 -11.6
14 Minnesota 2.4 19.0 -16.6
15 San Francisco 1.3 16.6 -15.3
16 Cincinnati -4.0 1.9 -5.8
17 Colorado -8.0 17.2 -25.1
18 New York Mets -10.6 -4.7 -5.9
19 Los Angeles Dodgers -13.3 15.7 -29.0
20 Miami -15.1 9.0 -24.2
21 Pittsburgh -18.3 12.3 -30.6
22 Boston -21.0 1.5 -22.5
23 Los Angeles Angels -27.3 7.0 -34.3
24 Tampa Bay -28.3 -11.6 -16.8
25 Baltimore -33.1 10.7 -43.8
26 Houston -33.5 -30.8 -2.7
27 Seattle -35.8 10.0 -45.8
28 San Diego -40.2 2.1 -42.3
29 Milwaukee -47.0 -39.3 -7.7
30 Detroit -61.3 -37.8 -23.5