Wichita State Shockers

3 Surprising Factors for the Final Four

Numbers are most interesting when they reveal hidden truths in sports. In getting ready for the Final Four, we were surprised by these findings.

Louisville’s Defensive Rebounding

With athletes like Chane Behanan and Gorgui Dieng, Louisville should rebound the ball extremely well. And they do on the offensive glass, pulling down 35% of rebounds compared with a 27.5% Division I average. However, Louisville is an average defensive rebounding team, allowing their opponents to grab 27.1% of rebounds. This could pose a problem against Wichita State, an excellent offensive rebounding team.

Why does Louisville have such a discrepancy between offensive and defensive rebounding? It could come from Louisville’s high pressure defense that forces turnovers. VCU is another team that plays this style of defense. They grabs 34% of offensive rebounds, confirming the athletic ability apparent from watching them play. However, VCU’s opponents get 29% of offensive rebounds, suggesting that a high pressure, pressing defense makes it difficult to grab defensive rebounds.

Wichita State’s Defense

Wichita State has allowed 91.2 points per 100 possessions, 36th best in the nation. However, when we adjust this raw number for strength of schedule, their defensive rank shoots up to 12th in the nation. This adjustment comes from the 9 of 10 Missouri Valley conference teams that have an offensive efficiency in the top half of Division I teams. The Shockers are predicted to allow 88.2 points per 100 possessions against an average team.

The Shockers are a tough team that slows the game down and control the boards. While The Power Rank gives Louisville a 6 point edge, Wichita State could prevail by getting hot early from 3 point range. Then their excellent defense could take over, preventing baskets and the opportunities for Louisville to set up the pressure defense. Moreover, Louisville is less likely to make up a deficit quickly, as they only shoot 32.7% (222nd in the nation) from 3 point range.

Syracuse’s Field Goal Shooting

From the raw statistics, Syracuse is not a good shooting team. From 2 point range, they hit 48.6% of their shots against Division I opponents, 125th in the nation. However, this doesn’t account for the strength of their schedule. In the Big East, 10 of 15 teams had a raw field goal percent defense in the top 100.

We use our ranking algorithm to adjust 2 point field goal percentage for strength of schedule. Syracuse moves up to 62nd in the nation. They’re not the best shooting team in the country. However, the Orangemen will get the job done if Michigan has one of their poor defensive games. The Power Rank has Michigan favored by about 2 points over Syracuse.

Win Probabilities

From our interactive bracket, the four teams have the following likelihood of winning the tourney.

Louisville, 43.9%
Michigan, 25.0%
Syracuse, 17.5%
Wichita State, 13.5%

What do you think? Let us know about your basketball insights in the comments below.

Thanks for reading.

Check Out The 2013 Interactive Bracket for March Madness

By Dr. Ed Feng 1 Comment

With every passing day in March, college basketball heats up that much more. Basketball junkies like us only have 16 days left until the committee announces the field of 68.

However, we couldn’t wait that long to see who would win the tourney. We took Jerry Palm’s bracket predictions from yesterday and calculated the win probabilities for each team to advance through each round. These odds are based on our college basketball team rankings, which give a win probability for each game.

We show these numbers in our interactive bracket (click here to open it up in a new tab). To unveil the win probabilities for a team to advance, hover over the team name. To discover the odds that a team wins a game, hover over the circle for that game.

Last year, Amy Nelson of SB Nation made this awesome video about our analytics and this interactive visualization.

You should draw your own conclusion from this year’s numbers. These 3 things jumped out at us.

Florida has largest chance of winning the tourney

What? The Gator team that has dropped 3 games in a weak SEC conference? The team that’s only 11th in the AP poll has a 12.8% chance of winning the tourney?

Florida is the top team in our college basketball rankings. Despite being more than a point and half better than even Indiana, they have lost 5 games this year because of their love affair with the 3 point shot. Over 40% of their shots come from behind the arc. Most nights, they shoot pretty well, hitting 38.4% of their 3’s for the season. However, they can also die by the 3.

Florida’s chance at winning the tourney would be even higher had Palm not put them in the Region of Death. The East region has Duke, Michigan and Syracuse in addition to Florida, all top 10 teams in The Power Rank. The committee takes geography into account when determining the bracket. Since most of the best college basketball teams are east of the Mississippi River, the bracket has regions of vastly differing strength.

Pittsburgh in the West

If the East is the Region of Death, then the West is the Region of Eternal Life. Due to geography considerations, the West has Gonzaga, New Mexico and Arizona as the top 3 seeds. While our numbers love Gonzaga (#3), New Mexico and Arizona are 19th and 15th respectively. One would expect the worst 2 and 3 seed to have a rank of 8th and 12th.

This unbalanced bracket opens the door for Pittsburgh, the 5 seed in the West. After an uncharacteristically poor season last year, the Panthers have surged back on the national scene with coach Jamie Dixon. Ranked 12th in The Power Rank, they have a 10.9% chance of making the Final 4 out of the West. It’s not as high as Gonzaga’s 25.3% chance, but it’s higher than most “experts” will give them.

First round upsets

The Madness of March starts that first Thursday (or Friday on a weird year) of the tourney when higher seeded teams get upset by double digit seeded teams. In Palm’s bracket, Oregon and Butler look most vulnerable.

Oregon has been overrated all year, rising to 19th in the most recent AP poll but only 49th in The Power Rank. They got exposed last night at Colorado, losing by 23. Wichita State has a 55% chance of upsetting Oregon in the first round.

Most people remember Butler for their consecutive championship game appearances from a few years back. However, this year’s team doesn’t have the same defensive toughness as those teams. Middle Tennessee State, who was our highest ranked team not to make last year’s tourney, has a 51% chance of knocking off Butler in the first round.

Interactive Bracket

What jumps out at you in our numbers? (Here’s that link to the interactive bracket again.) Let us know in the comments.

Thanks for reading.

Four teams to watch during the tournament

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Gabe Avins won a state high school basketball championship in California. The junior at the University of Pennsylvania has graciously agreed lend his basketball wisdom and analytics prowess to The Power Rank. Moreover, he endorses our interactive bracket with the win probabilities for each team to make each round. This is his first post.

The rank and rating next to each team name is from The Power Rank college basketball rankings. The rating gives a predicted point spread on a neutral court against the average DI team (this year, Charleston Southern).

Ohio State (2nd, 17.8). Don’t let Sunday’s loss to Michigan State fool you—the Buckeyes are legit. In the week leading up to the conference final, Ohio State beat Michigan State in East Lansing (the only team to do so this year) and easily handled tournament bound Purdue and Michigan on a neutral court. Much of their success can be attributed to their stout defense, which ranks first in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive efficiency statistic and allows offensive rebounds on only 24.8% of possessions (best among NCAA tournament teams). The Buckeyes are no slouch on offense either, turning the ball over on only 17.4% of possessions (25th best in NCAA) and converting 53.8% of their 2-point field goals (12th best).

Prediction: Loss to Kentucky in the Championship Game.

Wichita State (8th, 14.0). Arguably the most dangerous of the mid-majors, Wichita State sits at 8th in The Power Rank and in the top 20 of Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency rankings. This is a veteran bunch—their top five scorers are all seniors, headlined by do-it-all center Garrett Stutz and the sweet shooting Joe Ragland (50% 3FG). The selection committee did them no favors, however, putting them in the same half of the bracket as both Kentucky and Indiana. Look for the Shockers to get past Indiana and play Kentucky tough.

Prediction: Loss to Kentucky in the Sweet 16.

Murray State (22nd, 11.6). The Racers probably have a legitimate gripe with the selection committee after receiving a #6 seed despite being the only team in the field with one loss. Isaiah Canaan is as dangerous as they come at the point guard position, leading an offense that ranks 9th in the NCAA in effective FG% and 5th in 3FG%. If they get by Colorado State, a third round game with Big East powerhouse Marquette looms. The Power Rank sees an incredibly close game here, predicting Marquette by 0.7 (essentially a toss up). However, from our interactive bracket, Murray State actually has a higher chance of making the Sweet 16 (38%) than Marquette (37.7%) since Marquette faces a tougher first round test in the winner of the Iona versus BYU game.

Prediction: Loss to Missouri in the Sweet 16.

Belmont (29th, 10.2). Belmont comes into the tournament riding a 14-game win streak that they will try to build upon in Nashville. The Bruins will look to ride their offense to a successful opening weekend; the team ranks 12th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency according to kenpom.com and sports a 55% effective FG% (good for 5th in the NCAA). Though the #3 seed knocks off the #14 seed more than 80% of the time historically, The Power Rank gives Belmont a 44.5% chance of scoring the upset and favors the Bruins over both of their potential second round opponents, SDSU and NC State.

Prediction: Loss to Kansas in the Sweet 16.

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5 things numbers say about the 2012 NCAA Tournament

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Last year, I was talking with my friend Don Ward. He’s a classic dude, living life on sports, beer and the San Francisco Giants’ last championship. Each year, he fills out a bracket in a fairly large pool. When I asked him whether he used The Power Rank, he said no. It took too much time. Well, Don, we’ve tried to make your life easier this year. Working with data visualization goddess Angi Chau, The Power Rank presents an interactive bracket with all 416 win probabilities for the entire tournament. Check it out. Hover over the circles to see the likelihood that a team wins a game. The probabilities are based on 100,000 simulations of the tournament using our rankings. Use it, Don.

What do these numbers say about the tournament?

1. Kentucky has a 16.5% chance of winning the tournament. Really? That small? For a team that would not have lost this season if not for a last second 3 against Indiana and 8 minute stretch without a field goal against Vanderbilt? Yes. I was a little surprised at this number, but it just shows how competitive college basketball is. kenpom.com, the most complete college basketball analytics site, gives Kentucky a 19.5% chance to win it all. If you want to play Nostradamus with your friends or a hot date, predict Kentucky will not win the tournament. The odds are in your favor.

2. The most deserving team that didn’t make the field is… Drexel? The Dragons finished the regular season 58th in The Power Rank. Seton Hall? 51st in the rankings. Actually, Middle Tennessee State at 44th was the most deserving team to not make the tourney. The Blue Raiders earned their rank by walloping UCLA (89) by 20 on the road, beating Belmont (29) at home and giving Vanderbilt (13) all they could handle. I didn’t hear much about Middle Tennessee State on ESPN yesterday.

3. Will a number 1 seed lose in the first round? A number 1 seed has never lost in the first round. Never. I think I have a bet with Jeremy Templeton that this will happen sometime soon. We may have made this bet 5 years ago, with a 8 year window for the unthinkable to occur. North Carolina Asheville has a 16.5% chance of upsetting Syracuse. That’s quite a bit larger than the 5.2% chance Syracuse has to win the entire tournament.

4. First round upsets. Each of the past two years, we’ve identified 6 games in which a double digit seeded team has about a 50-50 chance of pulling off an upset. Each year, 3 of these teams won. This year, The Power Rank identifies only 3 such games: Texas over Cincinnati (49.2%), North Carolina State over San Diego State (48.3%) and Belmont over Georgetown (44.5%).

5. Wichita State really is that good. The Shockers are 8th in our rankings, ahead of Duke. Against a very good Creighton team, they easily won despite the foul trouble of big guy Garrett Stutz. Creighton just couldn’t stop Joe Ragland. Wichita State won’t shoot that well every game, but they’re a serious threat. We give them a 40.0% chance of making the Sweet Sixteen and a 10.2% chance of the Final Four. These numbers are not biased by the willingness of @ShockerHoops to retweet our stuff.

Imagine if there were no NCAA men’s basketball tournament. The season just ended with an invitation tournament with a long tradition. No real champion would be crowned. Perhaps college football should turn towards the future and tap the excitement of a single elimination tournament. Andy Staples at SI.com suggests that the university presidents might finally be coming around.