Copa America win probabilities for 2016 at the knock out stage

winprob_copa2016_knockout

These Copa America win probabilities are based on my international soccer/football rankings that include competition since the start of 2012.

The calculations weight games by their importance. For example, a World Cup match is worth four times a friendly.

However, the rankings do not weight recent games more. This has interesting consequences for the above win probabilities.

United States

For example, the United States ranks 13th in my world rankings. The largest contribution comes from the 2014 World Cup in which they emerged from a group of death to make the knock out stage.

Other predictive rankings such as eloratings.net tend to weight recent matches more. With their struggles in last year’s Gold Cup, the United States ranks 22nd by this metric.

Still, the United States has a 16% chance to win the Copa America. They will enjoy home advantage in each of their matches, worth 0.56 goals.

Also, it looked like Colombia did the United States a favor when they lost Costa Rica. The United States won the group on goal differential and most likely avoided Brazil in the first knock out game.

Then Brazil lost to Peru 1-0 when the referee missed a blatant hand ball goal. Brazil fails to advance from the group, and Peru, 27th by my rankings, wins the group.

I ran the numbers for the situation in which the United States finished second to Colombia in the group. This means they play Peru and Chile/Mexico instead of Ecuador and Argentina. The United States had a 21% win probability, larger than their 16% chance.

Partial home advantage for Mexico

I’ve given Mexico a half home advantage, since El Tri always gets strong support from their fans on American soil. However, they only have a 10% chance to win.

Mexico faces a tough road through Chile and Colombia, the seventh and fourth ranked teams by my numbers, to make the final. Then they most likely face top ranked Argentina in the final.

Argentina

Argentina has the highest win probability at 32%. However, this is less than the about 58% chance (-140 as of Thursday morning) given by the futures market.

Note that superstar Lionel Messi has yet to start a match in this tournament because of an injury. He did score three goals as a reserve against Panama.

Win probabilities for the 2015 Gold Cup

Screen Shot 2015-07-06 at 11.37.32 AMCan the United States win the 2015 Gold Cup?

Winning the Gold Cup means more than than just bragging rights over rival Mexico. With the win, the United States qualifies for the Confederations Cup in 2017, a key tune up tournament for the World Cup in 2018.

If another team wins the Gold Cup, they play a one game playoff against the United States, winner of the 2013 Gold Cup. The winner of this playoff represents North America at the Confederations Cup.

To determine win probabilities for the Gold Cup, I combined three different estimates into an ensemble prediction. Two came from my own calculations that rank international teams on offense and defense (see the bottom of this article), and a third came from the markets.

goldcup2015

The Gold Cup usually comes down to the United States and Mexico, but Costa Rica has emerged as a solid third team that made the final 16 of the World Cup last summer.

Let’s look at these three top contenders. The offense and defense rankings come from The Power Rank algorithm and use international matches since January 1st, 2011.

United States

12th offense, 27th defense

The United States looked fantastic in beating Germany in a friendly last month, and they also beat the Netherlands in another friendly. Both matches took place on European soil.

They need to play well at the start of the Gold Cup as their group has Honduras and Panama, two top 50 teams in my world soccer/football rankings. Meanwhile, Mexico has the dregs of CONCACAF (Guatemala, Trinidad and Tobago, Cuba, all ranked lower than 80th) in their group.

Coach Jurgen Klinsmann left central defender Matt Besler, who started every game of last year’s World Cup, off the Gold Cup roster. John Brooks will most likely start, and let’s hope they can improve a defense that has ranked 27th in the world over the last 4 years.

Mexico

11th offense, 9th defense

By the numbers, Mexico has a slight edge on the United States in my rankings. They don’t have the largest win probability though since the United States will enjoy home field advantage.

I’m not 100% certain the United States should get the full .59 goals for home field. If the United States and Mexico meet in Philadelphia for the final, there will be plenty of Mexican fans wearing green in attendance.

In my ensemble calculations, the market predictions most likely account for the semi-neutral type final in Philadelphia. They gave United States a 38% win probability with Mexico at 36%. The gap was bigger in my two calculations.

For Mexico, striker Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez broke his collar bone and will miss the Gold Cup. He scored 9 goals in 33 matches for Real Madrid last season.

Costa Rica

40th offense, 10th defense

Costa Rica had an amazing World Cup last summer. In winning their group, they sent Italy and England home before the knock out stage. Then they beat Greece to advance to the Round of 16.

Costa Rica relies on its defense, which is ranked 10th in the world over the last 4 seasons. They face a road game against Canada in Toronto in the group stage, but they should win their group before most likely playing the United States in the semi-final.

List of win probabilities for the 2015 Gold Cup

1. United States, 39.1%.
2. Mexico, 33.6%.
3. Costa Rica, 11.7%.
4. Panama, 4.7%.
5. Honduras, 4.7%.
6. Jamaica, 2.3%.
7. Guatemala, 1.8%.
8. Canada, 1.4%.
9. El Salvador, 0.9%.
10. Trinidad and Tobago, 0.7%.
11. Haiti, 0.1%.
12. Cuba, 0.1%.

Television Interview on Ronan Farrow Daily

me_ronan_mauriceRonan Farrow interviewed me and Maurice Edu about the World Cup on his MSNBC show yesterday.

I was pumped to meet both the host and one of the best soccer players in the United States. However, there’s not much contact when they film you from a remote location.

To do the interview, I went to a studio in my home town of Ann Arbor. A nice guy Tony set everything up.

From a remote location, I could only hear Ronan and Maurice in my earpiece. I couldn’t see them or what appeared on television.

Still, it was fun. We talked World Cup, the United States’ chances against Belgium in the Round of 16 and how numbers affect the psychology of players.

To view the interview, click here. If you’re viewing on Tuesday, July 1, it should be the main video under “Betting on the World Cup.” Otherwise, you might have to scroll through the videos on the right.

New international football / soccer rankings show recent form of nations

world_soccer_June19_2014The FIFA rankings suck. Not only do they poorly predict the outcome of matches, but you have to wait a month for updates.

The Power Rank international football / soccer rankings do better. The ranking algorithm considers margin of victory in adjusting for schedule strength in international soccer. As an academic study has shown, using margin of victory is critical in making predictions.

In addition, the international rankings are now updated daily.

This constant updating is interesting during the World Cup. My rankings use a 4 year window of matches and weight matches by their importance.

  • World Cup Finals: 4.
  • World Cup Qualifiers, Confederations Cup, Continental Finals: 3.
  • Continental Qualifiers, 2.
  • Friendlies, 1.

Since we’re in the middle of a World Cup, the rankings add important matches each day while dropping results from the previous World Cup. This leads to some interesting changes for certain teams.

Spain and the Netherlands

The Netherlands dominated Spain in a 5-1 win last week. This dropped an aging Spain team down to 6th. The FIFA rankings still have Spain as the top team.

The Dutch have risen to 4th. It mystifies me why more people didn’t think this traditional power could win this World Cup.

Germany and Brazil

While most other respectable rankings have Brazil on top, the weighting of matches in The Power Rank vaults Germany ahead of Brazil.

Germany has played well in the last two World Cups. In 2010, they dominated Argentina in a 4-0 rout. Just last week, they beat Portugal, another top 10 team, by the same margin.

With no weighting, Brazil would be the top team in The Power Rank.

United States and Ghana

The Yanks are 18th currently, one spot above the Ghana squad they just beat.

The United States won the game because of two great finishes by Clint Dempsey and John Brooks. However, between these two goals, Ghana dominated possession and scoring opportunities. They were the better team.

Colombia and Chile

These two South American teams are in the top 10. Colombia is ranked higher at 5th, but Chile is not far behind at 7th.

From this World Cup, the Colombia looks like the better team. They continue to score goals despite the absence of Radamel Falcao, their leading scorer in qualifying.

Moreover, my aggregated win probabilities before the World Cup gave Colombia an almost 4% chance to win it all. Chile only had a 1.9% chance.

Belgium and France

Belgium has generated much chatter as a dark horse World Cup champion. Young players like Eden Hazard have dazzled on the pitch at this World Cup.

However, their performance over the last 4 years ranks them 13th in The Power Rank. That puts them lower than France (9th), a team no has talked about as World Cup champion. (Of course, France is missing star winger Frank Ribery for this World Cup.)

Belgium’s play as a team does not make me believe they will contend for the World Cup title. My aggregated win probabilities before the tourney agree with this assessment. Belgium had the 11th highest win probability at 2.3%.

Rankings of World Cup teams

Here are rankings of the 32 World Cup teams that consider matches from June 20, 2010 through June 19, 2014. The record gives wins, losses and ties over the past 4 years. The rating gives an expected margin of victory against an average international team.

1. Germany, (37-7-11), 2.52
2. Brazil, (40-9-12), 2.28
3. Argentina, (32-8-15), 2.15
4. Netherlands, (33-9-11), 2.09
5. Colombia, (24-8-11), 2.09
6. Spain, (45-8-8), 2.05
7. Chile, (29-17-9), 1.69
8. Uruguay, (28-14-15), 1.69
9. France, (28-11-12), 1.59
10. Portugal, (26-9-13), 1.54
11. Ecuador, (17-14-15), 1.48
12. Mexico, (35-18-17), 1.48
13. Belgium, (22-8-12), 1.44
14. England, (25-8-14), 1.43
15. Ivory Coast, (31-7-9), 1.42
16. Italy, (22-12-21), 1.40
17. Ghana, (30-15-14), 1.29
18. United States, (37-17-12), 1.25
19. Russia, (24-6-13), 1.25
21. Switzerland, (20-7-12), 1.23
23. Croatia, (24-10-11), 1.16
24. Nigeria, (29-11-21), 1.11
27. Japan, (33-12-13), 1.07
28. Bosnia-Herzegovina, (21-14-7), 1.03
30. Costa Rica, (25-23-19), 0.95
32. Greece, (24-8-16), 0.91
34. Australia, (26-16-11), 0.87
35. Iran, (30-8-16), 0.85
38. South Korea, (24-17-12), 0.80
43. Honduras, (22-24-18), 0.75
50. Cameroon, (16-13-12), 0.60
53. Algeria, (19-10-6), 0.56

For all teams, click here.

Predictions

The Power Rank also provides predictions for each match and stages of the competition, both of which are update nightly.

These predictions use a different set of rankings that consider a 12 year window of games. Research as shown that these calculations are as accurate in predicting match outcomes as using a 4 year window.

World Cup 2014 win probabilities from The Power Rank

wc2014_winprobWho will win the 2014 World Cup?

The visual shows the top contenders according to The Power Rank. This list gives the odds for all 32 teams.

1. Brazil, 35.9%.
2. Argentina, 10.0%.
3. Spain, 8.9%.
4. Germany, 7.4%.
5. Netherlands, 5.7%.
6. Portugal, 3.9%.
7. France, 3.4%.
8. England, 2.8%.
9. Uruguay, 2.5%.
10. Mexico, 2.5%.
11. Italy, 2.3%.
12. Ivory Coast, 2.0%.
13. Colombia, 1.5%.
14. Russia, 1.5%.
15. United States, 1.1%.
16. Chile, 1.0%.
17. Croatia, 0.9%.
18. Ecuador, 0.8%.
19. Nigeria, 0.8%.
20. Switzerland, 0.7%.
21. Greece, 0.6%.
22. Iran, 0.6%.
23. Japan, 0.6%.
24. Ghana, 0.6%.
25. Belgium, 0.4%.
26. Honduras, 0.3%.
27. South Korea, 0.3%.
28. Bosnia-Herzegovina, 0.3%.
29. Costa Rica, 0.3%.
30. Cameroon, 0.2%.
31. Australia, 0.2%.
32. Algeria, 0.1%.

For those interested in my methods, see the end of this post.

But first, some quick thoughts on a few teams.

Brazil

The host nation Brazil has the highest win probability at 36%.

Home advantage plays a big role in these large odds. On average, the home team scored about 0.56 goals more than the road team over the last 3 cycles of World Cup qualifying.

As discussed in the book Scorecasting, referee bias plays a big role in home advantage. In last year’s Confederation Cup final, Spain tried to execute their short passing game against the home nation Brazil. From my perspective, the referees let Brazil get away with fouls that stymied Spain’s attack. Brazil won 3-0.

But Brazil also plays some magnificent soccer as the top ranked team in The Power Rank. Their young star Neymar will dazzle you with his quick feet and skills.

Argentina

The other traditional soccer power from South America, ranked 3rd in The Power Rank, has the second highest win probability at 10%.

Argentina benefits from a weak group with Bosnia-Herzegovina, Iran and Nigeria. I like to call it Group of Eternal Life. They have a 85% chance to advance to the knock out stage.

Argentina might also benefit from a home continent advantage. It’s much easier for Argentina fans to travel to Brazil for the World Cup than nations from Europe. Enough fans in attendance could create a home advantage effect like Brazil will enjoy.

I did not include a home continent advantage in my model, so Argentina might have even better odds than 10%.

United States

Expectations are different for the United States. Surviving a tough group with Germany, Portugal and Ghana would be a huge achievement. My numbers give the Yanks a 38% to make the knock out stage.

Those are decent odds for the 20th ranked team in the world. I also looked at their ranking when including only games with Jurgen Klinsmann as coach. Despite all those goals they scored in last year’s Gold Cup, the United States only rises to 17th.

The road to winning the World Cup gets harder in the knock out stage. The United States has a 1.1% chance to win the World Cup, 15th best out of 32 nations.

However, Connecticut had a 1.5% chance to win the 2014 NCAA men’s basketball tourney by my numbers. They beat Kentucky to win an improbable title.

Better predictions

Here’s the truth: If you want the most accurate predictions about who will win the World Cup, you shouldn’t just look at my predictions.

One system is not enough. Research has shown that better predictions arise from aggregating many predictions. This was a key finding in a recent academic paper on using rankings to predicting football matches.

Yeah, it’s a blow to my massive ego. 🙂 But you deserve the best possible predictions for the 2014 World Cup.

I’m curating World Cup predictions from other sources. Next week, I’ll aggregate these predictions for my email list, since they’re my favorite people in the world.

If you want to see those results (and you really should if you’re in any kind of World Cup pool), sign up for my free email newsletter. It’s the best way to get updates on The Power Rank’s content.

Just enter your email address and click on “Sign up now.”








Methodology

Still reading? Thanks, you’re the best.

The World Cup win probabilities start with The Power Rank’s algorithm for ranking teams. It takes margin of victory in matches and adjusts for strength of schedule. With the wide disparity between countries in international soccer, this adjustment is critical for predicting the World Cup.

This algorithm can not only rank teams but also the offense and defense of each team. This allows me to estimate the goal rate for an offense against an opposing defense.

To predict the outcome of a match, I pick a Poisson random variable according to these goal rates per 90 minutes. This model says a team has the same rate of scoring a goal at any point in the match.

For example, teams score 1.34 goals per 90 minutes in international play. This implies that a team has a 1.4% chance to score a goal during any minute. For each minute, you could flip a coin that comes up heads 14 out of every 1000 flips. Repeating this flipping 90 times and counting the heads is the same as getting goals from a Poisson random variable.

To simulate the World Cup, I use this Poisson model for each match in the group stage. To see the predictions for all 48 matches, check out the predictions page.

This model gives not only the winner or loser of each match but also a score. The scores allow for the calculation of tie breakers, which consider goal differential and goals scored.

The same Poisson model applies in the knock out stage. If two teams are tied on goals after regulation, the model is applied again for extra time. I assume each team has a 50-50 chance to win penalty kicks.

The win probabilities arise from counting the number of times each team wins over 10,000 simulations.