THE POWER RANK

Detroit at Kansas City, NFL Week 1

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After a 1-6 start to 2022, the Detroit Lions surged in the second half of the season. The offense led the team to a 9-8 regular season record, and the Lions were in playoff contention until the final week.

Heading into 2023, Detroit is the favorite in the NFC North, a paradigm shift in a division dominated by Green Bay. Can offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and the Lions offense keep up their momentum from last season?

The underlying metrics back up this offense. With QB Jared Goff, the Lions pass offense had a rating of 46.5%, which is a predicted passing success rate against an average defense. This rating is significantly higher than the 42.8% NFL average.

In addition, the analysts that obsess over watching tape love Ben Johnson. Ben Solek of The Ringer called him the next big thing in NFL coaching. However, the hype might be out of control. 

Let’s remember how many seasons Johnson has been calling plays as OC: one. Between signal and noise, you must lean towards the latter.

Coaching matters, but players matter more. While Goff was great in 2022, it has only been two years since the Los Angeles Rams traded him away. 

In addition, consider the weapons that Goff has. WR Amon Ra St. Brown is an emerging superstar. Last season, he had 2.40 yards per route run compared to the 1.50 NFL average for wide receivers. However, the offense doesn’t have any other proven skill players.

The actual reason for optimism in Detroit might be the defense. After fielding an awful secondary the past two seasons, the Lions brought in some established veterans in cornerbacks Emmanuel Moseley and Cam Sutton. Safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson should also help.

On Thursday, Detroit travels to Kansas City, a perennial Super Bowl contender with QB Patrick Mahomes and coach Andy Reid.

My market rankings take win totals and back out a rating for each team. This preseason model tends to be conservative on games with large point spreads like Detroit at Kansas City. The market has been in the range of a touchdown; more on that soon. 

However, the model has Kansas City by 8.1 points at home. One factor in this large spread is home field advantage. Based on recent history, I assign 2.1 points for an out of division game. This is more than the 1.3 points for a division game.

A second factor in this spread is Detroit’s schedule. Detroit has a win total of 9.5 wins just like the Jets. However, the Lions play in a weak NFC North and also get all four teams from a bad NFC South. 

When my code works out a rating for each NFL team based on market win totals and schedule, it rates Detroit almost two points worse than the Jets.

For the past few weeks, the markets have had Kansas City as a 6.5 point favorite, and my numbers saw value in the Chiefs. Yesterday, TE Travis Kelce hurt his knee in practice and is questionable against Detroit.

Most of the market moved one or two points towards Detroit. If anything, the injury has added value on Chiefs side, as some books have moved more than others. Two points seems like a big move when Kelce hasn’t been ruled out.

There is value in Kansas City -4.5 at DraftKings.

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Buffalo Bills – 2023 Preview Series

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Sports books win because of the hold. To win $100, you have to bet $110 on a typical spread or total. 

Wouldn’t life be much better if you could bet $100 to win $100? The sports book would no longer have an edge.

In the book The Logic of Sports Betting, Ed Miller and Matthew Davidow discuss these no hold markets. While no single book will let you have +100 odds on both sides of a spread, it is possible to find the equivalent or better across two sports books.

As an example, Circa has a regular season win total of 10.5 for the Buffalo Bills. The price to bet the over is -150, so you bet $150 to win $100.

At The Power Rank, I use the NFL win totals market at Circa and back out a rating for each team. For Buffalo, this considers their difficult division and a schedule that also has Philadelphia, Kansas City and Dallas.

The Unabated NFL simulator provides a unique opportunity to compare the market at Circa to other sports books. Based on my preseason market ratings, this tool simulates the season 10,000 times to generate probabilities for a multitude of events.

For example, the win total market at Circa translates to a 51.5% chance that Buffalo wins the AFC East. Unabated shows this price of +106 against the posted odds at a number of sports books.

DraftKings has Buffalo at +120 to win the division. Between Circa and DraftKings, you have a negative hold market. This gives you two choices:

  • If you like Buffalo, bet +120 at DraftKings to win the division.
  • If you think Buffalo is overrated, bet under 10.5 wins, +130 at Circa.

In The Logic of Sports Betting, the authors recommend taking a side in a no hold market. I am high on Buffalo for three reasons.

First, my market rankings most likely underestimate the probability for the Bills to win the division. In an earlier episode of the 2023 preview series, I discussed how the New York Jets are overrated in the market. In addition, Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa has yet to play an entire NFL season due to injury.

Second, Buffalo has been excellent the past two seasons. The Bills have had the best point differential per game during this time. QB Josh Allen and head coach Sean McDermott have played a pivotal role in both seasons.

The excellence of the Bills might seem diminished with a bad 27-10 loss to Cincinnati in the playoffs last season. However, don’t let one game fool you.

Third, which sports book do you trust more? A sharp book like Circa takes large bets from anyone, even professional bettors. A public book like DraftKings seems to specialize in restricting bets from anyone who wins.

There is value in Buffalo +120 to win the AFC East at DK.

Bet smarter with professional software

I don’t let others do my analytics for me. It goes against my pretentious Stanford Ph.D. brand.

However, I make one exception. Unabated.

Rufus Peabody is one of the most successful sports bettors of the past decade. The Unabated NFL simulator comes straight from his code.

I also use the Unabated line in my handicapping. Based on historical data, they have determined which sports books are the most accurate in a specific sport. The Unabated line is a combination of these sharp books. 

Unabated isn’t for everyone. The software requires a learning curve, and you will need to learn to fish for yourself.

But with a little bit of time, Unabated opens up new avenues of value. Buffalo +120 to win the division is the tip of the iceberg.

Before Detroit at Kansas City kicks off on September 7th, you can get Unabated for a massive savings through the NFL regular season.

This is an affiliate link, which means you will support The Power Rank if you decide to purchase the services at Unabated.

5-Nugget Saturday, September 2, 2023

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Your weekly curated list of sports betting tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

College football receiving prop – After transferring from Oregon, RB Trey Benson exploded at Florida State with 990 rushing yards last season. However, he is not a huge receiving threat, as Florida State insider Bud Elliott points out they throw more often to Lawrence Toafili out of the backfield.

Against LSU, DraftKings has Benson’s receiving prop at 16.5 yards, and he went over this number in three of 13 games last season. He never caught more than two passes in a game. Despite his speed, an athletic and efficient LSU defense should decrease the likelihood of explosive plays.

Bud sees value in under 16.5 receiving yards for Trey Benson (-120 at DraftKings), as Florida State meets LSU in a huge Sunday night game at 7:30pm Eastern. Follow Bud on Twitter for all of his college football betting insights.

NFL sack prop – Matthew Judon had a stellar season with the Patriots last season, as he recorded a career high 15.5 sacks. However, this total was three more than any other season, and this means regression looms for the 31 year old Judon.

In addition, ESPN’s Seth Walder has put together a sack prediction model that considers these factors among others:

  • Pass rush win rate, a metric from NFL Next Gen player tracking.
  • Blitz rate based on the defensive coordinator.
  • The sack rate of opposing quarterbacks.

It might seem strange to considering the opposition, but quarterbacks own sack rate more than you think.

These three factors all work against Judon, and the model projects 9.0 sacks in 2023. This implies value in under 11.75 sacks (-135 at DraftKings).

Buffalo Bills – On The Football Analytics Show podcast, Dr. Eric Eager talked about how the market is undervaluing Buffalo, as the Bill have had the best point differential in the league the past two seasons.

Eric thinks Buffalo has a more talented roster than Kansas City, although the perception of the the Chiefs is better given their Super Bowl win last season. In addition, a healthy WR Gabe Davis and rookie TE Dalton Kincaid will help this team.

Eric sees value in Buffalo 9-1 to win the Super Bowl, a widely available number. He also broke down run pass options, weak link systems and multiple teams in a must listen episode of The Football Analytics Show.

Third overrated college football team – In the Cotton Bowl, Tulane came back to beat USC and recently crowned Heisman winner Caleb Williams in a wild 46-45 game. This capped a magical 12-2 season.

With this kind of finish to the 2022 season, Tulane was destined to be overrated heading into 2023 (24th in the preseason AP poll). Let’s look at how they rank by a variety of preseason metrics:

  • 35th in my market rankings based on Circa win totals
  • 37th in SP+ of Bill Connelly
  • 55th in ESPN’s FPI

With returning QB Michael Pratt, Tulane won’t sink to 2-10, their record in 2021 in which everything went wrong. However, they probably sink towards their program level from 2018 to 2020 in which they won about half their games and had an average rating by my team rankings.

Check out my first and second overrated college football teams for 2023.

College football humor – When Nebraska made their coaching hire, Faux Pellini said:

Congratulations, Matt Rhule! You’re the next contestant on Nebraska’s favorite game show, “He’s Not Tom Osborne But He’ll Do for Now.”

On Thursday, Nebraska allowed Minnesota to score 10 points in the final minutes of the game to lose 13-10. The Cornhuskers have broken regression, as they are 2-14 in one score games since the beginning of 2021.

Level up your football betting game

You want to level up your football betting game in 2023. This curation of sharp bettors is fine for Saturday, but you want more earlier in the week. Predictions, analysis, anything that uncovers value.

Members of The Power Rank get access to all of my best predictions and analysis. This includes:

  • College football spreads
  • NFL spreads
  • NFL season player props

College football week 2 predictions will go up on Sunday to take advantage of the soft early market.

Learn more about becoming a member of The Power Rank.

Ohio State – 2023 Preview Series

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Ohio State enters the season at #3 in the preseason AP poll. This might seem like a stretch after what happened against Michigan last year. 

In Columbus, Michigan scored a convincing 45-23 road win. Even worse than the scoreboard was the way it happened. 

With about seven minutes remaining in the game, Michigan had a 31-23 lead. This was a typical situation in which the team with the leads wants to take time off the clock. 

Ohio State knew this, and they had seven defenders near the line of scrimmage. These conservative run plays usually go the way of the defense. Except it didn’t this time.

Michigan RB Donovan Edwards found a seam, and the single high safety took a bad angle. Edwards ran around him for a 75 yard touchdown.

A few minutes later, Michigan had the ball again with a 3rd and 3. The offense and defense were in the same  formation as the last touchdown with a single difference: Ohio State brought the high safety near the line of scrimmage. 

The formation change didn’t matter. Edwards found a hole and scored an 85 yard touchdown run.

These plays reflected poorly on Ohio State’s defense. However, there is a huge random element in explosive plays. The research goes back to seminal work by ESPN’s Bill Connelly.

For explosiveness, Bill looked at what amounts to yards per play on successful plays (A play is a success based on the definition used in looking at Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets). In college football, he found zero correlation between different parts of the season. I’ve also found very little predictability in explosiveness in the NFL.

The talking heads on broadcasts will rant about how the defensive scheme led to those big Michigan runs. They might lament the aggressiveness of Ohio State DC Jim Knowles, ignoring that his defense was mostly great. They ranked 4th in my adjusted success rate in 2022.

While scheme matters, the talking heads will not talk about the random element in explosive plays. A few plays against Michigan mask the massive improvement the defense made in the first year under Knowles. They ranked 45th in adjusted success rate in 2021 before he arrived. 

Ohio State’s struggles with explosive plays are clear when comparing their rank on success rate (4th) versus yards per play (49th). However, Knowles did not have the same discrepancy in 2021 at Oklahoma State (5th in success rate, 4th in yards per play). With the talent that Ohio State returns, the defense should continue to improve.

On offense, Ohio State must replace QB CJ Stroud, the 2nd overall pick of the NFL draft. Kyle McCord will start in the first game against Indiana, but he has not won the job over Devin Brown.

However, coach Ryan Day has an excellent track record on offense. Ohio State has an elite set of receivers, headlined by Marvin Harrison Jr. These receivers got so much separation against Michigan State last year they could have used a catapult to deliver the football.

A variety of trusted preseason metrics like the Buckeyes:

  • 3rd in my market rankings based on win totals
  • 2nd in SP+, a metrics based approach by Bill Connelly

Don’t let a few plays against Michigan fool you. Ohio State is not overrated at #3 in the preseason AP poll (I’ll give you my third overrated team on Saturday).

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter at 5pm Eastern on Wednesday, August 23. This newsletter is a free service that strives to be:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

Every week, I send out 5-Nugget Saturday, my curated list of sports betting tips, analytics and humor. This is the newsletter for those looking for action on any given weekend.

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Michigan – 2023 Preview Series

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It is easy for Michigan fans to dream this season. QB JJ McCarthy returns for his second year as a starter, and he has the talent to win the Heisman. 

Even if McCarthy doesn’t reach this ceiling, consider how Michigan’s QB situation compares with other top contenders.

  • Georgia will start redshirt sophomore Carson Beck, who has 58 career pass attempts. They also replaced OC Todd Monken with former OC Mike Bobo.
  • Ohio State will start Kyle McCord against Indiana on Saturday, but he has not won the job over Devin Brown.
  • Alabama is considering Jalen Milroe, Ty Simpson and Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner at QB heading into their first game.

In addition, Alabama and Ohio State lost their QB to the first two overall picks of the NFL draft. Georgia will no longer have Stetson Bennett, the most accomplished QB in program history with back to back championships. 

Right now, Michigan has a better QB situation than these teams. In 2023, this is the true source of dreams for Michigan fans, a group that I’m a part of here in Ann Arbor.

Then, the preseason AP poll put Michigan at #2. That is most likely too high, as Michigan does have concerns. 

The offense should be great to exceptional. Michigan will be able to bludgeon inferior opponents with the run game. They should have an exceptional offensive line and one of the best RB tandems in college football with Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards.

The question is how much the offense lets McCarthy throw to receivers, a relative weakness on this team. WRs Cornelius Johnson and Roman Wilson return but need to improve on their total of 57 receptions from 2022.

The defense was good enough last season, but they ranked only 32nd in my success rate adjusted for opponent. Now, they must replace the leading pass rusher and two cornerbacks. 

CB Will Johnson will be fantastic, but Michigan has questions at the opposite CB position. Edge Jaylen Harrell returns after having the second highest tackle for loss and sack totals last year, but the defense will need another pass rusher to emerge. 

For the second year in a row, Michigan faces an out of conference schedule softer than a baby’s bottom. The early conference games are only marginally more challenging. Michigan should be 9-0 heading into a road trip to Penn State. They end with Ohio State at home in Ann Arbor.

To justify 2nd in the preseason poll, Michigan must make the championship game. The market at Caesars implies a 44% chance to make the playoff. 

Let’s assume that Michigan has a 50-50 chance to win the playoff semi-final. That leaves roughly a 1 in 5 chance that Michigan lives up to #2.

Georgia, Ohio State and Alabama all have higher national championship odds because of program history. For example, consider what Bob Stoll said on the last episode of The Football Analytics Show. 

By his compensated yards per play, Georgia has had a top 10 offense in five of the past six seasons. They have started three different QBs during this tenure. He doesn’t expect that to change with Carson Beck.

While Michigan should definitely be a top 5 team, they are overrated at #2 in the preseason poll.

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

This article was sent to The Power Rank’s email newsletter at noon Eastern on Wednesday, August 30, 2023. This newsletter is a free service that strives to be:

  • Valuable
  • Concise
  • Entertaining

Every week, I send out 5-Nugget Saturday, my curated list of sports betting tips, analytics and humor. This is the newsletter for those looking for action on any given weekend.

To get this free service delivered straight into your inbox, enter your best email address and click on “Sign up now!”