THE POWER RANK

Can anyone beat North Carolina? A 2016 Final Four preview

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FinalFour_2016_winprobWhich team will win the Final Four? A talented North Carolina is the clear favorite, as my numbers give them a 47% chance to win.

However, three other hungry teams will attempt to knock off the Tar Heels in Houston. In a year of college basketball parity and complete March insanity, can one of these teams do it?

Let’s break down the four teams.

North Carolina

Before the tournament, I wrote this about the Tar Heels.

However, there’s something not quite right about this team. They don’t feel like the top team in the nation when you watch them play.

Dumbass.

North Carolina has looked every bit the championship contender. There were plenty of pre-tourney signs that said they would arrive at the Final Four as the front runner.

  • North Carolina was first in my college basketball rankings entering the tournament (still are, check out rankings here)
  • North Carolina began the season first in the preseason AP poll, a surprising predictor of post season performance.
  • Roy Williams elevates his team the most in the tournament according a one of my studies.

Of course, North Carolina has had their share of good fortune as well. They didn’t have to play Kentucky, West Virginia or Xavier, the other top teams in the East Region by my numbers.

Prior to the start of the tourney, North Carolina didn’t have the best odds to win partially due to this tough region. The numbers like Kansas out of a weaker Midwest region.

Now, North Carolina is a clear Final Four favorite, and my numbers give them a 47% win probability.

Villanova

Before the tourney, I warned people about picking Nova as champion. The Wildcats took 44% of their shots from three, and these high volume three point shooting teams tend to not win the tournament.

However, Villanova has shifted their offensive strategy over the last three games. Against Iowa, Miami and Kansas, the Wildcats have taken 33% of their shots from three. They no longer live by the three, die by the three.

Over these three games, the Wildcats have shared the ball. No one player has taken more than 11 shots except for Jason Hart (18) against Kansas. With their typical stellar defense, Villanova made the Final Four.

Villanova has also had their good fortune. They shot a blistering 59% (20-34) from three against Iowa and Miami in comfortable double digit wins, much better than their 34% average for the season.

Against Kansas, Villanova didn’t shoot that well. However, Kansas had a miserable shooting game from three (4-18). It got painful watching Wayne Selden miss shot after shot from behind the arc. The pain reminded me of watching Mike repeatedly call a girl in Swingers.

Villanova is 2nd in my team rankings with a rating a hair below top ranked North Carolina. These rankings would predict a toss up between these two teams in the title game.

However, my team rankings probably overestimate Villanova. My algorithm tends to weight games against good teams more, and Nova had some good fortune from behind the arc against their last 3 quality opponents.

I also calculate market rankings based on the closing point spreads in the markets, a predictor not as affected by the noise of game results. These numbers rate Villanova about 1.5 points worse than North Carolina, and I expect that to be the line should these two teams meet in the final.

Oklahoma

The Sooners are on a roll, as they blew threw the West region to secure a Final Four berth. Buddy Hield earned almost mythical status with 37 points against top seeded Oregon in the regional final.

Oklahoma came through on their 38.5% chance to make the Final Four by my numbers, highest of any team in the West Region. However, I still see flaws with this team.

Oklahoma takes a high rate of three point shots (41% of their field goal attempts). In addition, they have hit on 43% of these three pointers, a rate destined to regress against better defenses in the Final Four.

The markets have Oklahoma as a two point underdog against Villanova, and all of my calculations agree with this point spread.

But wait. Didn’t Oklahoma beat Villanova by 23 points this season? Yes, but the Sooners got blessed with good fortune from three point range. They shot a blistering 14 of 26 from three, while Villanova struggled in going 4 of 32.

My calculations do consider this game, but it’s one of 30 some games that contribute to my team rankings. Looking over a more complete body of work, Villanova is the better team.

Oklahoma can certainly beat Villanova, as a just a bit of jump shot luck can easily make up 2 points. However, Villanova defense ranks 5th in the nation by my points per possession adjusted for strength of schedule. Good looks from three will not come easy.

The odds should favor Villanova to beat Oklahoma.

Syracuse

Many pundits thought Syracuse shouldn’t have made the tournament at all.

The Orange lost to a woeful St. John’s team this season and couldn’t even win their first game in the ACC tournament. And perhaps this wasn’t surprising, as Syracuse didn’t get a single vote in the preseason AP poll.

However, the committee did select Syracuse. And in a year of college basketball parity, Syracuse made the Final Four as a 10 seed.

Syracuse wins with defense. Jim Boeheim recruits tall and long players to execute his zone defense, and this defense ranks 17th in adjusted efficiency numbers.

To make the Final Four, Syracuse beat Virginia when they Malachi Richardson hit a series of contest three point shots. Can this continue against North Carolina? Probably not, as my numbers give them only a 15% chance to pull the upset.

Can any team challenge Clemson and Florida State? A 2013 ACC college football preview

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ACC_Odds_2013_ThePowerRankNote from Ed: This is another guest post from Chad Peltier, who penned an awesome SEC preview previously. While the conference win probabilities have changed after week 1, I decided to keep the preseason odds.

The ACC will attempt to fight off a “Big 2, Little 12” reputation with Clemson and Florida State at the top. Miami, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Pitt, Syracuse, and North Carolina all have the skill to make the division races interesting, even if Clemson and Florida State far out-recruit the others.

The Coastal Division is highly unbalanced with both Clemson and FSU at the top. The Atlantic Division has a wider distribution of power between Miami, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, UNC, and Pitt.

The division races are far from certain this season, especially with upstarts in Maryland, Syracuse, and UNC.

Atlantic Division

FLORIDA STATE.

It’s unfortunate that the two best teams in the conference, Florida State and Clemson, are both in the Atlantic Division. One very good team will not make the ACC title game. Florida State has a strong case to be that top team and Atlantic Division representative even with starting a redshirt freshman quarterback in Jameis Winston. Seminole fans have to be excited after glimpsing Winston’s first game and his 93% completion percentage.

With a deep defense buoyed by successive top recruiting classes (particularly in the secondary), Jimbo Fisher will likely be most concerned with his offense in 2013. Winston, a former five-star recruit, is as close to a sure thing as possible. However, the offensive line and receiving core are two possible areas of weakness. The Seminoles are talented in the secondary, at running back, and at linebacker, but match-ups with Clemson and Florida might be tough for this developing team in 2013.

With these match-ups in mind, Florida State is the second-most likely team to win the conference at 23.6%, as well as to win the Atlantic Division, at 36.8%.

CLEMSON.

Once again, Clemson looks to be the class of the conference in 2013. Senior QB Tajh Boyd leads a formidable pass oriented offense that unfortunately lost its top WR DeAndre Hopkins and top RB Andre Ellington.

Many Clemson fans feel comfortable with a receiving core of Sammy Watkins and Charone Peake, and Boyd showed in the Georgia game that he feels comfortable spreading the ball to the large group of receivers. One revelation was senior RB Roderick McDowell, who ran for 132 yards against Georgia’s defense. Offensive coordinator Chad Morris is hoping to run as many plays as possible – hitting 100 during the bowl game with LSU – so what the Tigers may lack in efficiency they can more than make up for in sheer volume of plays.

The greater concern for Clemson may be their defense, especially the back seven. While effective against the run, the Tigers had a penchant for giving up big plays in both the passing game and after running backs hit the second level. This was evident against Georgia, as even an injured Todd Gurley was able to break long runs throughout the night.

Regardless, Clemson faithful have plenty of reasons to be optimistic following their win over Georgia. As it stands now, Clemson remains the most likely conference champion at 32.1% and a 48.1% chance of winning the Atlantic Division.

NORTH CAROLINA STATE.

NC State had a perfectly mediocre 7-6 campaign in 2012, thank-you-very-much. The Wolfpack are without possible Buccaneer starter Mike Glennon at quarterback, but will rely on an experienced (if not overly talented) defensive front seven to keep them in games in 2013.

While the front seven should at least be solid, the inexperienced secondary will likely give up explosive plays to the better quarterbacks in the conference, including Stephen Morris, Logan Thomas, and Bryn Retter.

As a result of the inexperienced secondary and the questions on offense – especially quarterback – the Wolfpack are just the fourth best in the Atlantic Division (behind Syracuse) with a 4% chance to win the division and just a 1.4% shot at the conference title.

SYRACUSE.

Syracuse enters in to a new era with Coach Scott Shafer and new QB (and Oklahoma transfer) Drew Allen. Allen was only decent in a close loss to Penn State, completing less than 50% of his passes for 189 yards.

The secondary limited the defense’s effectiveness in 2012, but intercepted blue chip Penn State quarterback Christian Hackenberg twice. Orange faithful can be pleased with the front seven’s performance against a fairly formidable Nittany Lion run game, which was held to just 57 yards and a 1.5 yard per carry average.

Syracuse certainly won’t be irrelevant in the Atlantic Division and is projected to finish third with a 9.7% chance of winning the division (but just a 4.6% shot at the ACC title).

THE REST.

Boston College, Maryland, and Wake Forest all make up the cellar of the stratified Atlantic Division. Combining for just a .2% shot at the ACC and 1.2% chance to represent the Atlantic Division, things are still fairly grim for these three ACC teams. While all three won their opening day games, they came against the likes of Presbyterian, Villanova, and Florida International.

Maryland might have found a winning combination with Deon Long and Stefon Diggs, a wide receiver tandem that could star at almost any school in the country. QB C.J. Brown had a fantastic start after tearing his ACL last season, completing 20 of 23 passes and not throwing an interception on the day.

Wake will move towards a more running-based team this season, with QB Tanner Price tasked with more rushes and option football than in his previous years with the program.

Boston College was unable to rush the ball with any success in 2012 and is hoping senior QB Chase Rettig will have more help from his running backs this season.

Of the three, look for Maryland to make the most noise this season, with the potential to upset better teams due to its group of skill players.

Coastal Division

VIRGINIA TECH.

Virginia Tech has been on a slide since its excellent 2009 and 2010 campaigns, resulting in an underwhelming 7-6 2012 season. A large part of the problem was that the 2012 offense failed to find an identity under hyped junior quarterback Logan Thomas. Thomas has elite size for a quarterback (as a former tight end), but struggled with accuracy (16 interceptions), sacks, and interceptions. New offensive coordinator and QB guru Scott Loeffler comes to Blacksburg after an extremely disappointing year at Auburn, but many question whether the passing game will improve in 2013.

Despite the offensive woes, it’s certainly not all bad news for Hokie fans. The defense might become an elite unit with a senior-laden line and a young, athletic secondary. Though the Hokies lost to Alabama in the opener, the defense managed to hold the Tide to two offensive scores and A.J. McCarron to a 43% completion percentage.

Led by the defense, the Hokies are a distant fourth to win the conference at 6.9% and second in the Coastal Division at 20%.

NORTH CAROLINA.

Larry Fedora has done an admirable job bringing some measure of respect to the basketball-first school, though the Tarheels will be without their do-everything running back Giovani Bernard. Bernard averaged 6.7 yards per carry for over 1200 yards and almost 500 receiving yards, making him a step better than any other back on the Tarheel’s roster.

QB Bryn Renner was remarkably efficient last season, throwing for 3,300 yards on just seven interceptions, and should carry the fast-paced offense with a deep group of receivers. The concern might be in how well Fedora’s 4-2-5 defense holds up against the spread offenses in the ACC.

With early tough matchups with Miami, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech, the Tarheels have a 17% chance of winning the Coastal Division and a 6% shot at the ACC crown.

GEORGIA TECH.

Tech has been consistently great on offense and mediocre to poor on defense since Paul Johnson began his tenure. That trend looks like it will continue for another season. Tech returns a load of quality running backs to play in the flexbone offense, as well as a more experienced QB Vad Lee and offensive line. Lee was solid against Elon, going 7/11 for 189 yards in 70-0 rout.

After a terrible defensive season under Al Groh, the Jackets hired Ted Roof to install a 4-3 defense, which Tech’s personnel is far more suited for. Elon really never stood a chance, but the Tech defense should get a better test against Duke and North Carolina in the next two weeks.

Georgia Tech as a 17.1% chance to win the Coastal and a 6.8% chance to take home the ACC title.

PITTSBURGH.

The Coastal Division has a more rough balance of power than the Atlantic Division, and Pitt’s entrance into the ACC only underscores that parity. The offensive cast is completely new, with running backs Ray Graham and Rushel Shell are both no longer with the team, quarterback Tino Sunseri has graduated, and the second and third best receivers have graduated as well. There isn’t too much room for optimism over the offense in Paul Chryst’s second season, despite an excellent first quarter against Florida State.

Pitt currently is the fifth-most likely Coastal Division representative, but at 15.7%, isn’t far behind UNC or Georgia Tech. Pitt has just a 6% chance of winning the ACC overall.

MIAMI.

Despite the looming NCAA investigation, Miami generated a lot of hype behind the stellar late season play from QB Stephen Morris and freshman running back Duke Johnson. Johnson in particular lived up to his recruiting hype as an electric kick returner and pounding running back, despite being no taller than 5-9. The Miami offensive line is one of the most veteran units in the country and shouldn’t have too much trouble opening holes for Duke or protecting Morris.

However, the defense has an inexperienced secondary and might struggle with more dynamic offenses like UNC, Georgia Tech, and Florida State. Nonetheless, Miami’s offense should put them at the front of the pack in the Coastal Division, with a 27.5% chance to take the Coastal Division and a 11.9% chance to win the ACC (which is third behind Atlantic Division probables Clemson and Florida State).

THE REST.

Duke and Virginia have just a .5% chance of winning the ACC (and a 2.7% shot at the Coastal title), but should both be better than the Atlantic cellar-dwellers Boston College, Maryland, and Wake Forest.

Duke returns a surprisingly deep cast of running backs, while also adding freshman four-star recruit Shaw Powell to run behind the veteran offensive line. The ground game won’t be the problem for the Blue Devils in their quest for bowl eligibility – that will likely be the passing game, which lost its quarterback and top wide receiver to graduation. Duke took the first step towards 6 wins in week one, beating NC Central 45-0.

Virginia’s 4-8 2012 campaign was disappointing after a promising series of recruiting classes and a decent 2011 season. This year’s offense will look much different after the graduation and transfer of the top two QBs. The Cavs managed to beat a decent BYU defense without many offensive fireworks, but should begin to work freshman five-star recruit Taquan “Smoke” Mizzell in at running back.

3 predictions for week 1 of college football, 2013

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Are you sick of seeing another Johnny Manziel story this summer? The long off season in college football provides ample time to post videos of Texas frat parties and discuss allegations over autograph sessions.

Do you think new uniforms are news? I don’t. Just last week, SI.com filed a story on Wisconsin’s new red helmets.

It’s time for football. Finally.

Let’s look at some interesting games this weekend.

Georgia at Clemson

The Power Rank: Georgia by 1.1.

Clemson ended last season with a monumental bowl win over LSU. QB Tajh Boyd converted a 4th and 16 to DeAndre Hopkins on the final drive that set up a game winning field goal. For those of you who read my newsletter before this game, it was a big fail for The Power Rank.

A huge bowl win sets high expectations for Clemson this season. Both the Coaches and AP preseason poll have the Tigers 8th in the nation. Conversely, The Power Rank has Clemson 19th.

The odds makers opened the line at Clemson by 2 at home against Georgia, which reflects the opinion of the pollsters. The line has since shifted to a 1.5 win for Georgia, much in line with The Power Rank’s prediction.

The game will be a shoot out.

Georgia brings back 9 starters on offense, including senior QB Aaron Murray. Their top ranked passing attack (yards per attempt adjusted for strength of schedule) last season should only improve. This spells trouble for Clemson secondary that lost 3 starters from a year ago.

However, the Tigers should score points as well. QB Tajh Boyd led the 16th ranked offense last season (yards per play adjusted for strength of schedule). They face a Georgia defense that needs to replace 9 starters, which suggest regression to average from their 20th ranking from last season.

Syracuse and Penn State

The Power Rank: Penn State by 0.9 at a neutral site.

I find this game intriguing since I feel like my preseason rankings overrates both teams. They both lost a productive senior quarterback and have yet to settle on who will start the game at MetLife Stadium in the Meadowlands (New Jersey). Both teams also lost key pieces to the defense, returning 6 starters apiece.

With both teams overrated, one might think the prediction of Penn State by a point should still be valid. However, Penn State is almost a 9 point favorite in Vegas. The markets are also projecting only 4.5 wins for Syracuse this season, predicting the Orange will really fall off after coach Doug Marrone left for The Buffalo Bills.

Southern Illinois at Illinois

The Power Rank: Southern Illinois by 1.2.

Illinois coach Tim Beckman got up to the podium at Big Ten Media Day and fumbled around for a word to describe his emotions for his 2013 team. He finally came up with one: anxious.

That should not instill much confidence in the Fighting Illini fan base. Southern Illinois finished 13th in my FCS rankings last season. They might not pull off the upset, but expect them to give Tim Beckman’s team a fight into the 4th quarter.

Thanks for reading.

3 Surprising Factors for the Final Four

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The Power Rank Interactive Bracket for the Final 4Numbers are most interesting when they reveal hidden truths in sports. In getting ready for the Final Four, we were surprised by these findings.

Louisville’s Defensive Rebounding

With athletes like Chane Behanan and Gorgui Dieng, Louisville should rebound the ball extremely well. And they do on the offensive glass, pulling down 35% of rebounds compared with a 27.5% Division I average. However, Louisville is an average defensive rebounding team, allowing their opponents to grab 27.1% of rebounds. This could pose a problem against Wichita State, an excellent offensive rebounding team.

Why does Louisville have such a discrepancy between offensive and defensive rebounding? It could come from Louisville’s high pressure defense that forces turnovers. VCU is another team that plays this style of defense. They grabs 34% of offensive rebounds, confirming the athletic ability apparent from watching them play. However, VCU’s opponents get 29% of offensive rebounds, suggesting that a high pressure, pressing defense makes it difficult to grab defensive rebounds.

Wichita State’s Defense

Wichita State has allowed 91.2 points per 100 possessions, 36th best in the nation. However, when we adjust this raw number for strength of schedule, their defensive rank shoots up to 12th in the nation. This adjustment comes from the 9 of 10 Missouri Valley conference teams that have an offensive efficiency in the top half of Division I teams. The Shockers are predicted to allow 88.2 points per 100 possessions against an average team.

The Shockers are a tough team that slows the game down and control the boards. While The Power Rank gives Louisville a 6 point edge, Wichita State could prevail by getting hot early from 3 point range. Then their excellent defense could take over, preventing baskets and the opportunities for Louisville to set up the pressure defense. Moreover, Louisville is less likely to make up a deficit quickly, as they only shoot 32.7% (222nd in the nation) from 3 point range.

Syracuse’s Field Goal Shooting

From the raw statistics, Syracuse is not a good shooting team. From 2 point range, they hit 48.6% of their shots against Division I opponents, 125th in the nation. However, this doesn’t account for the strength of their schedule. In the Big East, 10 of 15 teams had a raw field goal percent defense in the top 100.

We use our ranking algorithm to adjust 2 point field goal percentage for strength of schedule. Syracuse moves up to 62nd in the nation. They’re not the best shooting team in the country. However, the Orangemen will get the job done if Michigan has one of their poor defensive games. The Power Rank has Michigan favored by about 2 points over Syracuse.

Win Probabilities

From our interactive bracket, the four teams have the following likelihood of winning the tourney.

  • Louisville, 43.9%
  • Michigan, 25.0%
  • Syracuse, 17.5%
  • Wichita State, 13.5%

What do you think? Let us know about your basketball insights in the comments below.

Thanks for reading.

5 things numbers say about the 2012 NCAA Tournament

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Last year, I was talking with my friend Don Ward. He’s a classic dude, living life on sports, beer and the San Francisco Giants’ last championship. Each year, he fills out a bracket in a fairly large pool. When I asked him whether he used The Power Rank, he said no. It took too much time. Well, Don, we’ve tried to make your life easier this year. Working with data visualization goddess Angi Chau, The Power Rank presents an interactive bracket with all 416 win probabilities for the entire tournament. Check it out. Hover over the circles to see the likelihood that a team wins a game. The probabilities are based on 100,000 simulations of the tournament using our rankings. Use it, Don.

What do these numbers say about the tournament?

1. Kentucky has a 16.5% chance of winning the tournament. Really? That small? For a team that would not have lost this season if not for a last second 3 against Indiana and 8 minute stretch without a field goal against Vanderbilt? Yes. I was a little surprised at this number, but it just shows how competitive college basketball is. kenpom.com, the most complete college basketball analytics site, gives Kentucky a 19.5% chance to win it all. If you want to play Nostradamus with your friends or a hot date, predict Kentucky will not win the tournament. The odds are in your favor.

2. The most deserving team that didn’t make the field is… Drexel? The Dragons finished the regular season 58th in The Power Rank. Seton Hall? 51st in the rankings. Actually, Middle Tennessee State at 44th was the most deserving team to not make the tourney. The Blue Raiders earned their rank by walloping UCLA (89) by 20 on the road, beating Belmont (29) at home and giving Vanderbilt (13) all they could handle. I didn’t hear much about Middle Tennessee State on ESPN yesterday.

3. Will a number 1 seed lose in the first round? A number 1 seed has never lost in the first round. Never. I think I have a bet with Jeremy Templeton that this will happen sometime soon. We may have made this bet 5 years ago, with a 8 year window for the unthinkable to occur. North Carolina Asheville has a 16.5% chance of upsetting Syracuse. That’s quite a bit larger than the 5.2% chance Syracuse has to win the entire tournament.

4. First round upsets. Each of the past two years, we’ve identified 6 games in which a double digit seeded team has about a 50-50 chance of pulling off an upset. Each year, 3 of these teams won. This year, The Power Rank identifies only 3 such games: Texas over Cincinnati (49.2%), North Carolina State over San Diego State (48.3%) and Belmont over Georgetown (44.5%).

5. Wichita State really is that good. The Shockers are 8th in our rankings, ahead of Duke. Against a very good Creighton team, they easily won despite the foul trouble of big guy Garrett Stutz. Creighton just couldn’t stop Joe Ragland. Wichita State won’t shoot that well every game, but they’re a serious threat. We give them a 40.0% chance of making the Sweet Sixteen and a 10.2% chance of the Final Four. These numbers are not biased by the willingness of @ShockerHoops to retweet our stuff.

Imagine if there were no NCAA men’s basketball tournament. The season just ended with an invitation tournament with a long tradition. No real champion would be crowned. Perhaps college football should turn towards the future and tap the excitement of a single elimination tournament. Andy Staples at SI.com suggests that the university presidents might finally be coming around.