THE POWER RANK

Why Major League Soccer is taking over American sports

By Leave a Comment

On Friday, I walked up to Stanford Stadium to buy tickets for San Jose and Los Angeles the next night. The Earthquakes play one fixture a year at this college football stadium, and it wasn’t a problem getting tickets for the game with the New York Red Bulls last year.

Sold out.

Fifty thousand tickets were gone. I tried Stub Hub for the 4 tickets I needed, but the least expensive offer was $91 per ticket.

Ninety-one dollars for a ticket to a Major League Soccer match.

Surely, San Jose’s success this season played a role in selling out this match. The Earthquakes sit atop The Power Rank with a 0.68 rating, or average margin of victory against an average MLS side. More importantly, they lead the Western Conference as MLS approaches mid season.

Surely, fans also came out to see David Beckham and Robbie Keane of the Los Angeles Galaxy, two players Europeans with long club careers in England. Unfortunately, Los Angeles just hasn’t put it together this season. The Galaxy are 13th in The Power Rank with a -0.06 rating, not a record anyone expects from the defending MLS champions. Their back line couldn’t hold a 3-1 lead against San Jose on Saturday night. The Earthquakes won 4-3.

Fifty thousand fans for a soccer match is what usually happens in London, not Palo Alto. MLS might not be taking over American sports yet, but the growth of the league has been quite remarkable.

To see our complete MLS rankings, click here.

Thanks for reading.

MLS Blog 10/12/11

By Leave a Comment

The MLS rank
Symmetry is beautiful
But not for Canucks

As we approach the end of the regular season, the MLS Power Rank has taken on a very clear form. Los Angeles (#1) and Seattle (#2) form the elite, while RSL (#3) through Kansas City (#6) round out the upper third. The Sounders and Salt Lake are separated by 0.18 goals, while the above average pack of RSL, Philly (#4), New York (#5), and KC are within a mere 0.05 goals of each other. Of these top sides, all but New York are virtually guaranteed of not only making the playoffs, but a first round bye as well. The Red Bulls have a tough road, as they travel to Kansas City and then finish the season hosting the Union, both of which are in the top third.

A gap of 0.1 goals exists between the above average squads and the 7 teams residing squarely in the middle of the Power Rank. These sides, from last year’s runner-up FC Dallas (#7) through Columbus (#13) are all within 0.07 goals of average (always zero). It is these teams that are currently fighting for their playoff lives, with Dallas, defending champs Colorado (#8), Houston (#10), and Columbus currently in, with Chicago (#9) and DC United (#11) on the bubble. Of this group, only Chivas (#12) has been officially eliminated. With a game in hand and 1 point advantage, Dallas is the clear favorite to emerge from the middle, as two of their last three games are against the lowly Earthquakes (#15) and Whitecaps (#16). DC are also in good shape as they have four matches left, with two against fellow middle teams and two against the lower third. Houston, however, may be in trouble. Their season may depend on whether or not LA decides to field their stars in the last game of the regular season in a bid to break the single season points record.

Once again, a 0.1 differential is found between the bastions of mediocrity and those teams that need some work: the bottom third. In this region, there are two teams slightly better than the rest (a relative situation to be sure): Portland (#14) and San Jose (#15). Of the bottom third, only the Timbers still have a shot at the playoffs, but it will be a challenge. Despite having a game in hand, they finish against teams ranked above them. A difference of 0.2 goals divides the top of the bottom from the true cellar of MLS: Vancouver (#16), New England (#17), and Toronto (#18).

The current MLS rank structure is highly symmetric, with gaps of 0.2 and 0.18 goals separating the exceptionally good and bad teams from the rest. Similarly, differences of 0.1 make the top and bottom thirds distinct from the middle. Of the other sports tracked by The Power Rank, only MLB comes at all close to recovering a structure like this, and then only between the distance between the top 5 clubs and all the rest. This clarity just developed this past week because the top three teams all lost by multi-goal margins. LA dropped 0.06 goals after they lost 2-0 to the Red Bulls in New York, while Seattle decreased by 0.09 goals following a 2-0 defeat at home to the Union. Both victors vaulted above KC in The Power Rank to form the above-average-yet-not-elite. To complete this group, Salt Lake suffered the shock defeat of the weekend, falling 3-0 in Vancouver, who were then the lowest ranked team. Their resulting drop of 0.07 goals confirmed that, this year, they are not a truly elite MLS club.

The possession receiver in soccer

By 1 Comment

Power play up top
Quite important in soccer
Think Keyshawn Johnson

Since soccer is not as well known by American athletic enthusiasts as are other sports, from time to time I’ll devote this space to going a little more in depth on some of the positions and strategies of the game. After all, it is execution in these areas that separate the bottom feeders in The Power Rank from the top teams. This week I’ll be talking about hold-up forward play, as demonstrated by Steven Lenhart of the San Jose Earthquakes this week (and yes, I’m from the bay area, of course I’m a ‘Quakes supporter).

After starting the season at the bottom of the The Power Rank, San Jose has risen to 8th riding a 6-game unbeaten streak. The past two games they have had to make do without last year’s Golden Boot winner Chris Wondolowski, currently on duty with the US national team. In these two games, they’ve outscored their opponents 6-2 to finally bring both their goal differential and Power Rank score into positive territory. A big part of the reason has been the play of Lenhart in his role as the hold-up forward. This particular position is easy to understand because of the many similarities it shares with a position in football: the possession receiver.

The possession receiver distinguishes himself from other types of receivers by trading speed for size, and usually having the softest hands on the team. Keyshawn Johnson, formerly of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, is always who I think of in this role. His big body allowed him to screen defensive backs and make plays when oriented towards the inside of the field. Possession receivers aren’t going to blow by a corner and score, but by keeping a drive going, they can put other players in the position to do just that.

In a similar way, a hold-up forward will use his body to screen defenders. While soft hands obviously don’t come into the picture, the same basic idea of being able to trap an incoming ball, either with feet or chest, does. This allows the forward to possess the ball and keep it away from the defense while his back faces the opponent’s goal. By holding up the ball, the forward gives his supporting players a chance to get forward, which is particularly important in transitioning from defense to offense as the midfielders and outside backs need time to run up the pitch. After they arrive, the forward can distribute the ball to them.

Of course, this being soccer the analogy isn’t perfect. After distributing the ball back to his teammates, the hold-up forward is still a forward, so it’s his responsibility to get into the other team’s 18-yard box and put the ball in the back of the net. Lenhart’s second goal of the match exemplified this style perfectly. He was able to gently one-touch a ball into the path of fellow forward Khari Stephenson. This let Stephenson strike the ball with both precision and power, so the goalkeeper could only punch the ball away rather than holding onto it. But Lenhart had already pushed forward and was rewarded with an easy finish by being the first player to the loose ball.

I’ll conclude with a programming note. The US Men’s National Team is currently playing the North American Gold Cup. This is the most important tournament the USMNT will play in until the 2014 World Cup, so do yourself a favor and check it out on Fox Soccer Channel.

MLS Cup Final Preview

By Leave a Comment

San Jose vs. Colorado? Of course that makes sense for an Eastern Conference final! At least this year, though, justice was served as the Western Conference was clearly dominant and all four wild card playoff berths were claimed by Western Conference teams. The Power Rank shows the fairness of this result as the top seven ranked teams ending the season all made it. Only Kansas City, having edged San Jose by a fraction for the 8th spot, can feel a bit cheated. Fortunately, the ‘Quakes represented their conference well with a 3-1 thumping of New York, guaranteeing the final 2010 The Power Rank top 8 will have filled out all the playoff spots. What will be interesting to see is if this continues in the future.

MLS differs from nearly every soccer league in the world, not only in having conferences, but also by letting a playoff determine the ultimate champion. Other leagues have every team play every other, home and away, for a perfectly balanced season with the top squad decided by point total. This year, the MLS sides also played each other home and away, and this balance is why the final regular season rankings aligned so closely with goal differential. LA can be aggrieved that, in any other country, they would be considered the top team after earning the most points over a balanced season.

However, part of the American sports culture is based on titles being earned on the field. Personally, I like it for the unmatched drama and excitement (are you listening, BCS?) but I’m glad MLS at least recognizes the significant achievement of being the best regular season team. What I don’t like is the split into conferences that doesn’t serve any useful function except having #1 Real Salt Lake and #3 FC Dallas meet in the first round of the playoffs! The current system would even allow for a potentially stronger Western Conference team to miss out in favor of a weaker Eastern Conference one. Also, referring to the games as “conference” championships is totally meaningless, as we saw this week. It seems fairer to take the top 8 teams, seeded by point total, and have a normal playoff.

In defense of the conference system, MLS commissioner Don Garber has noted the long travel distances involved in a country the size of America. Considering the drain that long air travel can have on endurance, this is reasonable enough. In addition, he notes that the MLS season is restricted to avoid playing cold weather games, again reasonable after the freezing temperatures in Colorado this past weekend. The problem with these arguments is that they’re invalid this year, and likely next, when MLS gains two expansion teams and adds four games. While the schedule hasn’t been released, another balanced season is likely. Will this change in 2012 when the league expands to 20 teams? We’ll see, but unless they’re going to be segregated by conference in the playoffs, at least seed teams in some meaningful way. It shouldn’t be a reward to earn fewer points: Seattle could be in the title game if they’d lost one more game and gone to the “east.”

Now, on to the matches. In Colorado, freezing temperatures probably took a bit of energy out of both sides but the Rapids were able to take the lead at the stroke of half-time. After pressing for an equalizer at the start of the second half, the altitude began to take a toll on the Earthquakes and they weren’t able to sustain pressure in the last twenty minutes and force overtime. Still, the game provided an interesting contrast between San Jose, who run their attack out the midfield, and the Rapids, whose forwards Conor Casey and Omar Cummings run the show.

Meanwhile at the Home Depot Center, the stars aligned for FC Dallas who demolished a very tired looking LA Galaxy. Perhaps injuries, age, and international duty finally took a toll, as during the regular season the Galaxy had handed Dallas their only home loss and defeated them 2-1 in LA. Of all the teams in the Conference Finals, only FC Dallas looked on their best form, playing impressive team defense throughout the midfield and back lines. Particularly in the middle of the field, the pressure they exerted when LA gained possession denied the Galaxy of easy attacking chances. Dallas only looked vulnerable on a couple of brilliant switches from David Beckham.

Looking forward to the MLS cup final, FC Dallas separated themselves from the Galaxy with their 3-0 road win after the two teams had been tightly packed for most of the season in The Power Rank. In their last two regular season matches, FC Dallas had a combined 4-1 goal disadvantage on the road against the Galaxy and Real Salt Lake. In their away playoff games against both sides, they reversed this figure with a 4-1 goal advantage to trail only RSL in The Power Rank. As such they are quarter goal favorites to win their first MLS Cup. However, when Colorado can’t get the ball up top to their talented playmakers, the Rapids run out of ideas quickly. If Dallas’ midfield can keep up the kind of defensive pressure they’ve been applying thus far, expect it to be a long night for Colorado.

Major League Soccer, Playoff Update

By Leave a Comment

There’s no phase in sports guaranteed to make physics nerds cringe like “that team has momentum.” When figuring out how a car will drive or an airplane will fly, Newton’s laws tell us what the vehicle’s momentum will be and how we can change it. No equivalent exists in sports, although you wouldn’t know it listening to all the prognosticating that goes on in the media. Just don’t ask anyone to define it. There were worries about Colorado against Columbus because they lost momentum… in the last few minutes of their match against Real Salt Lake. FC Dallas? No chance because they dropped their last two, never mind both were on the road to the only two teams ranked higher than them in the The Power Rank. And let’s not forget Los Angeles Galaxy, top of the table for most of the year but fashionable picks for an early exit against the Seattle Sounders. The only easy pick where the favorite was expected to win was New York over San Jose, but as we’ll see, this also flies counter to the “momentum” argument.

Here at The Power Rank, we know that a sample over a few games isn’t enough to prove anything… but it can be enough to disprove some things. In this case, the question is: can “momentum” at the end of the regular season predict the first playoff results for each team? Well, first we need a definition of momentum, and just in case you think I’m trying to con you, I’ll give you two: points earned over the last 5 games and points earned over the last 10 games. Here you can see the teams ordered by the last 5 games’ momenta.

MLS Teams, Momentum
Both measures give a similar ranking, with only the Rapids leap-frogging LA and Seattle if the last 10 games’ points are considered, and then only by 1 point.

What’s most telling about this ranking is how well it agrees with The Power Rank’s ordering, with only the Sounders and FC Dallas appearing out of place. So you might say ‘ha!’, maybe momentum can beat The Power Rank. Not so fast. A look at the schedule provides a different explanation. In their past 10 games, Seattle was fortunate to only play two playoff teams (Colorado and Salt Lake), thereby racking up points against teams at the bottom of the table. Conversely, Dallas has played six of their last 10 against play-off teams, including LA and Salt Lake on the road. Of their other four games, they picked up three wins and a draw.

Finally, consider the second set of games contributing to the last 10, games 6-10. If we ranked teams based on those 5 games and compared them to The Power Rank, the Sounders come back to earth and LA and Dallas appear as the only aberrations being a bit too low. We’ve already discussed Dallas, but in games 6-10, LA drew the Fire and lost to San Jose, both on the road and both a bit unlucky. So basically, The Power Rank explains most of the trends based on results for the entire season, and the streaks can be attributed to aspects natural to sport: strength of schedule, home field advantage, and of course, a little bit of luck.

So how did the momentum rank do? Well, it did have the Rapids overcoming Columbus, but also New York drawing at San Jose, Seattle getting it done against the Galaxy, and of course, the kings of momentum, Real Salt Lake, should have dominated FC Dallas. It didn’t go down that way, but to be fair, The Power Rank went 2-2 as all home teams were favorites given the ranking. So what’s the difference? The Power Rank is based on what each team earned on the field during the whole season, valuing consistency over finishing the season at home playing bottom table teams. And aside from a few unlucky breaks, we can use The Power Rank to explain almost all the observations about “momentum”. So when it comes time to make your post-season picks, remember your best bet is steady and consistent rather than the current flavor of the week.

This week offers the second legs of the first round playoff matches. Thanks to getting results on the road, the Galaxy and Red Bulls are in good shape to advance to the next round, in line with The Power Rank best estimate. Even though they’re traveling to Columbus, the Rapids are still favored to advance. So what about the matchup predicted by The Power Rank to be the most one-sided? Well, don’t count out the Royal Army of Salt Lake City yet as home field advantage coupled with their top rank gives the defending champs an even chance to advance against a talented Dallas side, especially when considering extra time is played at altitude in beautiful Sandy, Utah. But from the soccer fan’s perspective, the best part is all the ties are only separated by one goal, so we should be in for a weekend of great games. Enjoy!