THE POWER RANK

MLS Cup Final Preview

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Tough road for Houston
Taking on LA at home
Expect to see stars

The Power Rank uses past results to determine what is likely to happen in future matches. In that spirt, we’ll look back at the MLS Conference Finals to gain some insight into what will happen in the MLS Cup Final because they demonstrated a lot about the class of teams in MLS.

Starting in the Eastern Conference Final, the Houston Dynamo (#4) emerged victorious with a 2-0 win in Kansas City (#3). As someone with ties to both Houston and St. Louis, I was quite pleased with the result. However, the match itself was not a particularly great one. Relatively few good chances were created, with KC usually being contented with crosses into the box. Dynamo playmaker Brad Davis went down in a physical first half, but Houston stayed in the match by being compact in defense. Neither side really demonstrated a strong ability to possess and move the ball at will. In the end, even without Davis, Houston was still able to score off set-pieces while each side was unable to score when they had numbers in the box. In fact, Sporting Kansas City’s next best chances were off poor back-passes by Houston. While SKC’s season ended, they are a young team with a strong offense, so expect more from them next year.

Meanwhile out west, Real Salt Lake (#5) travelled to the Home Depot Center to take on the top ranked LA Galaxy (#1). This game captured how the various numbers that we use in the Power Rank relate to what’s going on on the pitch. First, the half a goal advantage for the home team was on full display on the Galaxy’s opening goal, which came from Landon Donovan by way of the penalty spot following a foul on Omar Gonzalez. The foul was definitely soft, and a significant portion of home field advantage is due to referee bias. Perhaps that was the case here, but fortunately, this was the only time the ref played a significant role in this game. What we got to witness for the rest of the game was a good team taking on a great one.

Here at the Power Rank, we consider that either team could win any game, so the objective of the rank is try to understand which team has the advantage. In soccer, advantage amounts to creating and finishing chances, while denying the other side the same opportunities. Quantifying a “good chance” is very difficult, but we can use human intuition in concert with the quantitative rankings to help understand the game. Prior to the frenetic finish, Salt Lake City had four really good chances. Three came off set pieces, with Alvaro Saborio scoring a nice header while Josh Saunders did well to block a short range effort that fell to Robbie Russell. Kyle Beckerman also hit the post after a set-piece scrum, while Fabian Espindola did the same following a good individual effort in the box. Had they converted all four chances, they would have won the game. However, it speaks to the difficulty of finishing in professional soccer that four goals is an unusually large tally, so while possible, scoring all four in would be an improbable event.

While it’s clear that Real Salt Lake is a good team, it’s telling that Galaxy striker Robbie Keane had five good chances just himself; more than RSL generated as a team in the first 80 minutes. Unfortunately for Salt Lake City, starting center back Nat Borchers was out while partner Jamison Olave was injured and not at 100%. That said, the real difference in this match was the play in the midfield. LA did an excellent job of working the ball through their midfield into good attacking positions. The forwards had support on the wings and through the center, resulting in many good chances for the Galaxy. In fact, the one fault in their game was poor finishing. RSL was not able to match this level of play, and were unable to effectively remove pressure from their back line. Their main problem was a lack of linking up between Kyle Beckerman and Javier Morales. Beckerman had a good game and played well on the ball, but couldn’t establish a rhythm with Morales, who often would up drifting wide. Instead, their attack revolved around getting the ball up to Espindola and letting him try to take on several defenders without support. In fact, aside from the first leg against Seattle (#2), Real Salt Lake has been unable to replicate their midfield partnership that was so effective last season.

So what did we learn from the conference finals? Well, the first thing is that Sporting Kansas City is not one of the elite teams in MLS. While good, this young side still has some growing to do and needs to resolve some defensive issues. We also learned that Real Salt Lake is not the same team they were last year. Certainly having Morales absent for most of the season was a significant loss, but he has yet to be the impact player he was before his injury. Only time will tell if this is temporary. Most definitely though, the LA Galaxy are firmly established as the class of MLS. They are 0.11 goals better than the second ranked Sounders, or put another way, they are over 10% better than the next best team based on the range of rankings.

Looking ahead to the MLS Cup Final, we’ll have Houston at Los Angeles. That’s right: at. While the final rotates between MLS cities, this year it takes place at the Home Depot Center in Carson, California. This makes the Galaxy 0.76 goal favorites to lift the MLS Cup. Win or lose though, it is highly unlikely the Dynamo could win by a large enough margin to overtake LA in the rankings, or even match Seattle to join the elite. So in the end, credit to the LA Galaxy for having a great season and setting the pace in Major League Soccer.

MLS 2011 Playoff Preview

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MLS playoffs
More parity than last year
Red Bulls as spoilers?

The MLS regular season has ended, so now it’s time to look at what The Power Rank can tell us about the playoffs. First, the good news: despite the point differential between conferences, in which Eastern Conference champions Sporting KC (#3) would have finished 5th in the Western Conference, there’s actually quite a bit of parity between the conferences. It worked out this year that 5 teams from each conference qualified for the playoffs, and indeed 9 of the rank’s top 10 made the playoffs. The lone exception was Columbus (#11) edging out the Fire (#10), but both play in the east.

Now for the bad news: the true elite teams, LA (#1) and Seattle (#2), both reside in the west, so fans will not be treated to a championship game pitting these sides against each other. This fact alone reveals the foolishness of the playoff system in a league in which each team plays every other team exactly twice. Because of this format, The Power Rank shows that the first playoff match featuring New York (#6) traveling to FC Dallas (#8) might be one of the most critical postseason matches. If Dallas wins, then the winner of Columbus at Colorado (#9) will play LA in the Western Conference semifinals. The Galaxy would be expected to score 0.8 more goals than the Rapids and a whopping 0.98 goals more than the Crew over a two game playoff. In contrast, KC would be favored by only 0.34 goals over Dallas.

However, if New York wins, the situation would be quite different. The Red Bulls are the most underrated squad by points based on their rank. Because they took the final playoff spot, if they beat Dallas, they will play LA. Even so, the Galaxy should still have a 0.62 goal advantage, but KC could potentially have as much as 0.56 goal edge if the Crew pull off the upset. In this bizarre scenario, the Galaxy end up with only a slight advantage over Sporting KC despite besting them by 16 points during the regular season.

Of course, a possible playoff round against the New York could be the least of LA’s concerns. In the one guaranteed marquee match up of the conference semifinals, Real Salt Lake (#4) will take on the Seattle Sounders (Seattle has a 0.5 goal advantage), setting up what could be one of the best matches of the playoffs if LA ends up winning their semifinal. Home field advantage for the Galaxy could be crucial as they would only edge the Sounders by the slightest margins on a neutral field: 0.01 goals. The Eastern Conference playoffs should still be exciting, as Philly is only a 0.12 favorite versus Houston, while KC would only have a 0.10 goal margin if the Union emerge from their semifinal. However, as has been the case for the past few years, the Western Conference champion will most likely be deserving of the MLS cup.

MLS Blog 10/12/11

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The MLS rank
Symmetry is beautiful
But not for Canucks

As we approach the end of the regular season, the MLS Power Rank has taken on a very clear form. Los Angeles (#1) and Seattle (#2) form the elite, while RSL (#3) through Kansas City (#6) round out the upper third. The Sounders and Salt Lake are separated by 0.18 goals, while the above average pack of RSL, Philly (#4), New York (#5), and KC are within a mere 0.05 goals of each other. Of these top sides, all but New York are virtually guaranteed of not only making the playoffs, but a first round bye as well. The Red Bulls have a tough road, as they travel to Kansas City and then finish the season hosting the Union, both of which are in the top third.

A gap of 0.1 goals exists between the above average squads and the 7 teams residing squarely in the middle of the Power Rank. These sides, from last year’s runner-up FC Dallas (#7) through Columbus (#13) are all within 0.07 goals of average (always zero). It is these teams that are currently fighting for their playoff lives, with Dallas, defending champs Colorado (#8), Houston (#10), and Columbus currently in, with Chicago (#9) and DC United (#11) on the bubble. Of this group, only Chivas (#12) has been officially eliminated. With a game in hand and 1 point advantage, Dallas is the clear favorite to emerge from the middle, as two of their last three games are against the lowly Earthquakes (#15) and Whitecaps (#16). DC are also in good shape as they have four matches left, with two against fellow middle teams and two against the lower third. Houston, however, may be in trouble. Their season may depend on whether or not LA decides to field their stars in the last game of the regular season in a bid to break the single season points record.

Once again, a 0.1 differential is found between the bastions of mediocrity and those teams that need some work: the bottom third. In this region, there are two teams slightly better than the rest (a relative situation to be sure): Portland (#14) and San Jose (#15). Of the bottom third, only the Timbers still have a shot at the playoffs, but it will be a challenge. Despite having a game in hand, they finish against teams ranked above them. A difference of 0.2 goals divides the top of the bottom from the true cellar of MLS: Vancouver (#16), New England (#17), and Toronto (#18).

The current MLS rank structure is highly symmetric, with gaps of 0.2 and 0.18 goals separating the exceptionally good and bad teams from the rest. Similarly, differences of 0.1 make the top and bottom thirds distinct from the middle. Of the other sports tracked by The Power Rank, only MLB comes at all close to recovering a structure like this, and then only between the distance between the top 5 clubs and all the rest. This clarity just developed this past week because the top three teams all lost by multi-goal margins. LA dropped 0.06 goals after they lost 2-0 to the Red Bulls in New York, while Seattle decreased by 0.09 goals following a 2-0 defeat at home to the Union. Both victors vaulted above KC in The Power Rank to form the above-average-yet-not-elite. To complete this group, Salt Lake suffered the shock defeat of the weekend, falling 3-0 in Vancouver, who were then the lowest ranked team. Their resulting drop of 0.07 goals confirmed that, this year, they are not a truly elite MLS club.

MLS Preview for July

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British invasion
It’s MLS versus the world
Enjoy this July

You can tell it’s July when you starting hearing about top European soccer clubs playing matches in America. Most foreign leagues start up in August so this is the time when teams in those league are having their pre-season tune-ups. The US has been a destination of choice in recent years for these clubs because of the improved quality of MLS sides, and of course, the money factor: top European sides can sell out stadiums over here. American soccer teams will face three of the top four English teams, Manchester United, Manchester City, and Arsenal, as well as Spanish runners up Real Madrid. It all culminates at the end of the month when the MLS All-Stars try their luck again against Man U. after getting dominated last year.

Of course, the British invasion is reminder that the MLS season is rapidly approaching it’s halfway point, with some teams having already played more than half of their games. With so many games, The Power Rank is getting a good measure of each team’s relative quality. The rankings demonstrate that the West is yet again the dominant conference as it occupies the top four spots. That means you can expect another ranting blog post about the foolishness of the seeding process for the playoffs in a few months. However, the league has quite a bit more parity this year with no team having as high a value as Real Salt Lake ended last season with (to see what a league with less parity looks like, check out the top of the MLB rankings).

One of the most interesting things to note at the top is that teams 2 through 4 have each suffered a long-term injury to a key player. Now that LA will be without goalkeeper Donovan Rickets for the next month or so, we’ll see if they can cope as well. Of all these injuries, Real Salt Lake have suffered the most. They ended last year’s rank as clearly the best side and started this season just the same, but after suffering a tough defeat in the Champions’ League finals followed by a devastating injury to midfielder Javier Morales, they have fallen to third in The Power Rank. It will be interesting to see how well they continue to contend through the rest of the season in a loaded Western Conference.

Looking east, Philly is giving hope to this year’s expansion teams (both ranked in the bottom four) by moving into the top third. New York has had a bit of bad luck in that they have the second most number of ties. A break here or there and they would be comfortably in charge of the lesser conference. Also keep an eye on Kansas City who had to start the season with 10 consecutive road games while construction was completed on their new Livestrong Stadium. They are ranked number 7, but have a whole lot of home games in front of them. This year, the last four playoff spots will be based on standings in a unified table, and if the season ended today the West would claim three of them with Sporting KC squeaking in for the fourth.

Real Salt Lake, US and Regional Power

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Oh Real Salt Lake
So close yet so far away
Much more to come though

Welcome back to a new season of MLS here at the The Power Rank. This year promises much excitement with the addition of two new teams in the northwest, great friendlies against some of the top clubs in the world, but most importantly, nine matches of made in the USA soccer every week until the fall. Already the haves and have nots are starting to become clear, both in the standings and The Power Rank. There are already a few surprises, but this blog will focus on a team that is not a surprise: Real Salt Lake.

RSL has picked up where they left off from last season. They’re currently in 2nd place in the Western Conference, but first in The Power Rank. TPR doesn’t care that they’ve played 3 games less than LA and Seattle, so in a prediction that will surprise no one, expect them to be best in the west when they have the same number of matches as these other teams under their belt.

So why have Real Salt Lake played the fewest number of games of any MLS club so far? The answer is CONCACAF Champions’ League. Soccer is one of the few sports that boasts many quality leagues throughout the world, and so in each FIFA region (CONCACAF is the North American and Caribbean region) a tournament is held among qualifying clubs from each nation’s professional league. In this tournament, RSL has set a new benchmark for American soccer by being the first MLS team to win its group stage last fall.

The knock-out stages began in February, and Real Salt Lake dispatched fellow MLS side Columbus with a convincing win at Rio Tinto. Next up was Saprissa from Costa Rica. This time, RSL played the first leg at home where they built up a 2-0 advantage in a dominating performance. The next game in Costa Rica was more evenly matched, and despite the 2-1 loss, the outcome of RSL advancing on aggregate was never much in doubt. In doing so, they became the first MLS club to make it to the Champions’ League final.

The final against Mexican club Monterrey took place over the past two weeks, starting with a tie in the heat and humidity just south of the Rio Grande. Typically, Mexico is where American soccer teams go to die, but RSL came out and played aggressively, making for a very exciting and contested first half. The environment and travel took their toll in the second half, but just as it looked like Real would leave down 2-1, Javier Morales turned out an amazing individual effort to make four defenders look silly and get RSL back to the states on level terms.

Unfortunately, soccer can be a fickle sport. Real Salt Lake played much better at home in Rio Tinto, moving and possessing the ball well. They just couldn’t find the back of the net, while Monterrey was able to put one away and win the tournament. However, the achievement by RSL is significant, given the number of MLS firsts they registered in international play and the fact they were in the final until the bitter end. While they’re prohibitive favorites for winning MLS Cup this year, they’re also demonstrating the talent available on the MLS pitch to the rest of the world.