THE POWER RANK

MLS 2011 Playoff Preview

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MLS playoffs
More parity than last year
Red Bulls as spoilers?

The MLS regular season has ended, so now it’s time to look at what The Power Rank can tell us about the playoffs. First, the good news: despite the point differential between conferences, in which Eastern Conference champions Sporting KC (#3) would have finished 5th in the Western Conference, there’s actually quite a bit of parity between the conferences. It worked out this year that 5 teams from each conference qualified for the playoffs, and indeed 9 of the rank’s top 10 made the playoffs. The lone exception was Columbus (#11) edging out the Fire (#10), but both play in the east.

Now for the bad news: the true elite teams, LA (#1) and Seattle (#2), both reside in the west, so fans will not be treated to a championship game pitting these sides against each other. This fact alone reveals the foolishness of the playoff system in a league in which each team plays every other team exactly twice. Because of this format, The Power Rank shows that the first playoff match featuring New York (#6) traveling to FC Dallas (#8) might be one of the most critical postseason matches. If Dallas wins, then the winner of Columbus at Colorado (#9) will play LA in the Western Conference semifinals. The Galaxy would be expected to score 0.8 more goals than the Rapids and a whopping 0.98 goals more than the Crew over a two game playoff. In contrast, KC would be favored by only 0.34 goals over Dallas.

However, if New York wins, the situation would be quite different. The Red Bulls are the most underrated squad by points based on their rank. Because they took the final playoff spot, if they beat Dallas, they will play LA. Even so, the Galaxy should still have a 0.62 goal advantage, but KC could potentially have as much as 0.56 goal edge if the Crew pull off the upset. In this bizarre scenario, the Galaxy end up with only a slight advantage over Sporting KC despite besting them by 16 points during the regular season.

Of course, a possible playoff round against the New York could be the least of LA’s concerns. In the one guaranteed marquee match up of the conference semifinals, Real Salt Lake (#4) will take on the Seattle Sounders (Seattle has a 0.5 goal advantage), setting up what could be one of the best matches of the playoffs if LA ends up winning their semifinal. Home field advantage for the Galaxy could be crucial as they would only edge the Sounders by the slightest margins on a neutral field: 0.01 goals. The Eastern Conference playoffs should still be exciting, as Philly is only a 0.12 favorite versus Houston, while KC would only have a 0.10 goal margin if the Union emerge from their semifinal. However, as has been the case for the past few years, the Western Conference champion will most likely be deserving of the MLS cup.

MLS Blog 10/12/11

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The MLS rank
Symmetry is beautiful
But not for Canucks

As we approach the end of the regular season, the MLS Power Rank has taken on a very clear form. Los Angeles (#1) and Seattle (#2) form the elite, while RSL (#3) through Kansas City (#6) round out the upper third. The Sounders and Salt Lake are separated by 0.18 goals, while the above average pack of RSL, Philly (#4), New York (#5), and KC are within a mere 0.05 goals of each other. Of these top sides, all but New York are virtually guaranteed of not only making the playoffs, but a first round bye as well. The Red Bulls have a tough road, as they travel to Kansas City and then finish the season hosting the Union, both of which are in the top third.

A gap of 0.1 goals exists between the above average squads and the 7 teams residing squarely in the middle of the Power Rank. These sides, from last year’s runner-up FC Dallas (#7) through Columbus (#13) are all within 0.07 goals of average (always zero). It is these teams that are currently fighting for their playoff lives, with Dallas, defending champs Colorado (#8), Houston (#10), and Columbus currently in, with Chicago (#9) and DC United (#11) on the bubble. Of this group, only Chivas (#12) has been officially eliminated. With a game in hand and 1 point advantage, Dallas is the clear favorite to emerge from the middle, as two of their last three games are against the lowly Earthquakes (#15) and Whitecaps (#16). DC are also in good shape as they have four matches left, with two against fellow middle teams and two against the lower third. Houston, however, may be in trouble. Their season may depend on whether or not LA decides to field their stars in the last game of the regular season in a bid to break the single season points record.

Once again, a 0.1 differential is found between the bastions of mediocrity and those teams that need some work: the bottom third. In this region, there are two teams slightly better than the rest (a relative situation to be sure): Portland (#14) and San Jose (#15). Of the bottom third, only the Timbers still have a shot at the playoffs, but it will be a challenge. Despite having a game in hand, they finish against teams ranked above them. A difference of 0.2 goals divides the top of the bottom from the true cellar of MLS: Vancouver (#16), New England (#17), and Toronto (#18).

The current MLS rank structure is highly symmetric, with gaps of 0.2 and 0.18 goals separating the exceptionally good and bad teams from the rest. Similarly, differences of 0.1 make the top and bottom thirds distinct from the middle. Of the other sports tracked by The Power Rank, only MLB comes at all close to recovering a structure like this, and then only between the distance between the top 5 clubs and all the rest. This clarity just developed this past week because the top three teams all lost by multi-goal margins. LA dropped 0.06 goals after they lost 2-0 to the Red Bulls in New York, while Seattle decreased by 0.09 goals following a 2-0 defeat at home to the Union. Both victors vaulted above KC in The Power Rank to form the above-average-yet-not-elite. To complete this group, Salt Lake suffered the shock defeat of the weekend, falling 3-0 in Vancouver, who were then the lowest ranked team. Their resulting drop of 0.07 goals confirmed that, this year, they are not a truly elite MLS club.

MLS Blog 8/13/11

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The New York Red Bulls
Played well over in London town
Not so good over here

I hereby declare the New York Red Bulls to be the most enigmatic team in MLS.  Since starting the season 5-2-7 and playing an attractive mix of possession and attacking soccer, the Red Bulls have nearly imploded, winning just once in their last ten games.  In fact, having played exactly 2/3 of their games, New York now have exactly as many draws (12) as decisions.  Of those decisions, half are wins and half are draws, so for the moment, they have the unlikely symmetry of an exactly average team.

The statement of the Red Bulls’ mediocrity flies in the face of all expectation.  New York pays more for designated players than every other team, and one of them, Thierry Henry, leads the league in goals.  Their center backs are two of the finest in MLS:  US international Tim Ream and Mexico international Rafa Marquez.  They recently traveled to London and won a European pre-season tournament by beating French side Paris St.-Germain and drawing against one of the top teams in the world: Arsenal.  While it was pre-season for these teams, New York played well.  Particularly against Arsenal, they were well organized in defense and opportunistic on offense.

So what’s up with New York back here in the good ol’ US of A?  As I pointed out, the Red Bulls have strong forwards, speedy wingers, and strong center backs.  However, goalkeeper and midfield have been problem spots.  They recently traded midfielder Dwayne De Rosario to DC to make room to sign keeper Frank Rost.  Since, they have only managed one win out of six games.  It had been hoped at the beginning of the season that De Rosario would be able to complete the team by pulling the strings on the attack from the midfield.  While at this point there is not enough data to make any definitive assessment, New York does not seem to be performing any differently with or without him. After leaving the Red Bulls, though, he’s averaging a goal a game with United.

With their recent problems, New York has dropped to 10th in The Power Rank. However, they’re in 3rd place in the East, which would see them into the playoffs. Certainly don’t count them out, but the De Rosario situation illustrates a lingering problem: the lack of a central midfielder who can possess and distribute the ball. De Rosario has always been more of an attacking midfielder, which wasn’t what they needed with their strong array of forwards and wingers. Until they can pick up a true #10, don’t expect them to be able to keep pace with the top sides in MLS.

MLS Preview for July

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British invasion
It’s MLS versus the world
Enjoy this July

You can tell it’s July when you starting hearing about top European soccer clubs playing matches in America. Most foreign leagues start up in August so this is the time when teams in those league are having their pre-season tune-ups. The US has been a destination of choice in recent years for these clubs because of the improved quality of MLS sides, and of course, the money factor: top European sides can sell out stadiums over here. American soccer teams will face three of the top four English teams, Manchester United, Manchester City, and Arsenal, as well as Spanish runners up Real Madrid. It all culminates at the end of the month when the MLS All-Stars try their luck again against Man U. after getting dominated last year.

Of course, the British invasion is reminder that the MLS season is rapidly approaching it’s halfway point, with some teams having already played more than half of their games. With so many games, The Power Rank is getting a good measure of each team’s relative quality. The rankings demonstrate that the West is yet again the dominant conference as it occupies the top four spots. That means you can expect another ranting blog post about the foolishness of the seeding process for the playoffs in a few months. However, the league has quite a bit more parity this year with no team having as high a value as Real Salt Lake ended last season with (to see what a league with less parity looks like, check out the top of the MLB rankings).

One of the most interesting things to note at the top is that teams 2 through 4 have each suffered a long-term injury to a key player. Now that LA will be without goalkeeper Donovan Rickets for the next month or so, we’ll see if they can cope as well. Of all these injuries, Real Salt Lake have suffered the most. They ended last year’s rank as clearly the best side and started this season just the same, but after suffering a tough defeat in the Champions’ League finals followed by a devastating injury to midfielder Javier Morales, they have fallen to third in The Power Rank. It will be interesting to see how well they continue to contend through the rest of the season in a loaded Western Conference.

Looking east, Philly is giving hope to this year’s expansion teams (both ranked in the bottom four) by moving into the top third. New York has had a bit of bad luck in that they have the second most number of ties. A break here or there and they would be comfortably in charge of the lesser conference. Also keep an eye on Kansas City who had to start the season with 10 consecutive road games while construction was completed on their new Livestrong Stadium. They are ranked number 7, but have a whole lot of home games in front of them. This year, the last four playoff spots will be based on standings in a unified table, and if the season ended today the West would claim three of them with Sporting KC squeaking in for the fourth.

Los Angeles Galaxy have a new look in the midfield

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New York and L.A.
A spectacle to behold
See what money buys

There was a lot of money on the pitch this past Saturday night as the New York Red Bulls traveled to face the LA Galaxy.  Between these two teams, they have five of the six most expensive designated players in the league.  Both occupy first place in their respective conferences, with the Red Bulls ranked #2 and LA #3 in The Power Rank.  MLS has been hoping for a strong New York-LA rivalry for many years to help electrify the country’s two biggest markets.  So with all that hype, did the match live up to it?

Unequivocally, yes!  Both teams played hard and with passion in what was an open and exciting game.  There were many good attacks, many shots on goal, and quite a few great saves.  The match ended at a 1-1 draw with each team capitalizing on one of the very few mistakes made by their opponent.  This is what the fans wanted, a competitive match decided by skill rather than by lucky bounces.  In the end, a draw was probably fair, although I think if there were to be a winner, LA deserved it more.

So let’s look in a little more detail at the Galaxy.  A 4-1 drubbing at Real Salt Lake not withstanding, the stars have shown brightly in LA this year.  While they finished last season as winners of the Supporter’s Shield for best regular season record, they fell to 3rd in The Power Rank by the end of the playoffs, and yours truly was critical of the over-reliance on the Beckham long-ball which dragged them down at the end of the year.  This season, however, they look like they could even be more dangerous… and could the reason be because Beckham is starting to get older?

Throughout his career, David Beckham has played predominately as a right-winger, which is a position that requires speed.  Speed is one of the first things go as one ages, so this season Galaxy coach Bruce Arena has moved Becks into the center of the midfield where he doesn’t need to be as fast.  What this has done has allowed Beckham to be more involved in the passing game, partnering with Juninho to move the ball around the midfield.  It has also gotten him closer to LA’s playmakers since he can deliver the ball more directly to striker Juan Pablo Angel, and most importantly, Landon Donovan has moved to the right side.  This is a more natural position for Landon and let’s him and Beckham connect with short, accurate passes.

All of this is not to say that David Beckham no longer bends it like, well, Beckham.  He is still capable of delivering a masterful long ball.  The difference this year is that he doesn’t always have to, and rather can pick and choose when to go over the top and when to maintain possession.  Both he and Donovan are now also looking for more through balls to the strikers, giving the Galaxy a more dynamic attack.  All of this can be illuminated with a simple analogy with football.  If Peyton Manning threw deep every play, most NFL defenses could shut him down because the Colts offense would become one-dimensional.  By mixing up different passes and having a good run game, Manning can keep his offense balanced and defenses off balance.  The Galaxy look to have found the same mix.