THE POWER RANK

MLS CONCACAF First Round

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The Champions League
MLS is five for five
More success awaits

CONCACAF Champions League is back, baby! This past week saw the first round of the group stages take place in the 16 team tournament. Each group contains 4 teams, and the top two will advance. Seeding is such that no team from the same country is in the same group, although Canadian and American MLS squads can be (as is the case in Group C with Dallas and Toronto). The tournament has been steadily gaining in importance in North America, and its winner earns a berth in the FIFA Club World Cup. In last year’s tournament, Real Salt Lake made it all the way to the final, taking an important step for MLS internationally. Can the American/Canadian league go further this year?

In any tournament format, it’s always impossible to say, but MLS is off to a flying start after going 5-0-0 in the first round. The format of home and away pairings means each team still has five more matches, so qualification for any club is far from assured. Fortunately, MLS sides are at peak condition being in the middle of their season, while clubs from other countries are still gaining match fitness as their leagues start up. However, the situation will be reversed for the knock-out stages next spring. This makes it important for MLS to get as many teams as possible through the first round.

Of all the wins earned by the MLS teams, there is one clear standout: FC Dallas’ win over Pumas in Mexico City. This marked the first victory ever for an MLS team on Mexican soil in 25 tries. Not only are Pumas one of the top Mexican clubs, but they play in the altitude and smog of Mexico City which gives the US national team so much trouble. While Pumas elected to rest many of their starters in favor of a younger side, after the first 15 minutes Dallas played at a level as high as their competition. Overall, FC Dallas has had an impressive run this season despite the loss of the last year’s MVP, David Ferreira, early in the campaign. Now, having gotten the most difficult match out of the way in the CONCACAF Champions League, they are in good shape to be playing deep into that tournament. The Power Rank can give us some insight about their chances, as well as the other MLS teams.

While The Power Rank doesn’t track foreign soccer leagues (yet!), even if it did, the Mexican and Central American leagues are only just starting so it would need to rely on last season’s data. In addition, it is difficult to compare across different leagues; enough data for a meaningful comparison wouldn’t exist until after the group stages. However, The Power Rank shows that MLS is contributing some of its top sides to the Champions League, with three of the top four (#1 LA, #2 Seattle, and #4 Dallas), and four of the top six (#6 Colorado). The final slot is the Canadian team Toronto FC, which currently resides in the rank’s basement. Of these teams, Seattle and Dallas have a great chance to go deep into the tournament. Both should be able to best the non-Mexican teams in their group, and can expect reinforcements later this year or early next spring for the knock-out stages in the forms of David Ferreira and Steve Zakuani. Additionally, both are young sides, which will hopefully help them recover full fitness earlier in spring should they make it out of the group stages. While LA is clearly the best team in MLS right now and should emerge from their group, question marks surrounding the return of David Beckham and Landon Donovan make it harder to tell how far this older team can go. As for Toronto, well, miracles can happen, even in Canada.

MLS Preview for July

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British invasion
It’s MLS versus the world
Enjoy this July

You can tell it’s July when you starting hearing about top European soccer clubs playing matches in America. Most foreign leagues start up in August so this is the time when teams in those league are having their pre-season tune-ups. The US has been a destination of choice in recent years for these clubs because of the improved quality of MLS sides, and of course, the money factor: top European sides can sell out stadiums over here. American soccer teams will face three of the top four English teams, Manchester United, Manchester City, and Arsenal, as well as Spanish runners up Real Madrid. It all culminates at the end of the month when the MLS All-Stars try their luck again against Man U. after getting dominated last year.

Of course, the British invasion is reminder that the MLS season is rapidly approaching it’s halfway point, with some teams having already played more than half of their games. With so many games, The Power Rank is getting a good measure of each team’s relative quality. The rankings demonstrate that the West is yet again the dominant conference as it occupies the top four spots. That means you can expect another ranting blog post about the foolishness of the seeding process for the playoffs in a few months. However, the league has quite a bit more parity this year with no team having as high a value as Real Salt Lake ended last season with (to see what a league with less parity looks like, check out the top of the MLB rankings).

One of the most interesting things to note at the top is that teams 2 through 4 have each suffered a long-term injury to a key player. Now that LA will be without goalkeeper Donovan Rickets for the next month or so, we’ll see if they can cope as well. Of all these injuries, Real Salt Lake have suffered the most. They ended last year’s rank as clearly the best side and started this season just the same, but after suffering a tough defeat in the Champions’ League finals followed by a devastating injury to midfielder Javier Morales, they have fallen to third in The Power Rank. It will be interesting to see how well they continue to contend through the rest of the season in a loaded Western Conference.

Looking east, Philly is giving hope to this year’s expansion teams (both ranked in the bottom four) by moving into the top third. New York has had a bit of bad luck in that they have the second most number of ties. A break here or there and they would be comfortably in charge of the lesser conference. Also keep an eye on Kansas City who had to start the season with 10 consecutive road games while construction was completed on their new Livestrong Stadium. They are ranked number 7, but have a whole lot of home games in front of them. This year, the last four playoff spots will be based on standings in a unified table, and if the season ended today the West would claim three of them with Sporting KC squeaking in for the fourth.

Los Angeles Galaxy have a new look in the midfield

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New York and L.A.
A spectacle to behold
See what money buys

There was a lot of money on the pitch this past Saturday night as the New York Red Bulls traveled to face the LA Galaxy.  Between these two teams, they have five of the six most expensive designated players in the league.  Both occupy first place in their respective conferences, with the Red Bulls ranked #2 and LA #3 in The Power Rank.  MLS has been hoping for a strong New York-LA rivalry for many years to help electrify the country’s two biggest markets.  So with all that hype, did the match live up to it?

Unequivocally, yes!  Both teams played hard and with passion in what was an open and exciting game.  There were many good attacks, many shots on goal, and quite a few great saves.  The match ended at a 1-1 draw with each team capitalizing on one of the very few mistakes made by their opponent.  This is what the fans wanted, a competitive match decided by skill rather than by lucky bounces.  In the end, a draw was probably fair, although I think if there were to be a winner, LA deserved it more.

So let’s look in a little more detail at the Galaxy.  A 4-1 drubbing at Real Salt Lake not withstanding, the stars have shown brightly in LA this year.  While they finished last season as winners of the Supporter’s Shield for best regular season record, they fell to 3rd in The Power Rank by the end of the playoffs, and yours truly was critical of the over-reliance on the Beckham long-ball which dragged them down at the end of the year.  This season, however, they look like they could even be more dangerous… and could the reason be because Beckham is starting to get older?

Throughout his career, David Beckham has played predominately as a right-winger, which is a position that requires speed.  Speed is one of the first things go as one ages, so this season Galaxy coach Bruce Arena has moved Becks into the center of the midfield where he doesn’t need to be as fast.  What this has done has allowed Beckham to be more involved in the passing game, partnering with Juninho to move the ball around the midfield.  It has also gotten him closer to LA’s playmakers since he can deliver the ball more directly to striker Juan Pablo Angel, and most importantly, Landon Donovan has moved to the right side.  This is a more natural position for Landon and let’s him and Beckham connect with short, accurate passes.

All of this is not to say that David Beckham no longer bends it like, well, Beckham.  He is still capable of delivering a masterful long ball.  The difference this year is that he doesn’t always have to, and rather can pick and choose when to go over the top and when to maintain possession.  Both he and Donovan are now also looking for more through balls to the strikers, giving the Galaxy a more dynamic attack.  All of this can be illuminated with a simple analogy with football.  If Peyton Manning threw deep every play, most NFL defenses could shut him down because the Colts offense would become one-dimensional.  By mixing up different passes and having a good run game, Manning can keep his offense balanced and defenses off balance.  The Galaxy look to have found the same mix.

MLS Cup Final Preview

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San Jose vs. Colorado? Of course that makes sense for an Eastern Conference final! At least this year, though, justice was served as the Western Conference was clearly dominant and all four wild card playoff berths were claimed by Western Conference teams. The Power Rank shows the fairness of this result as the top seven ranked teams ending the season all made it. Only Kansas City, having edged San Jose by a fraction for the 8th spot, can feel a bit cheated. Fortunately, the ‘Quakes represented their conference well with a 3-1 thumping of New York, guaranteeing the final 2010 The Power Rank top 8 will have filled out all the playoff spots. What will be interesting to see is if this continues in the future.

MLS differs from nearly every soccer league in the world, not only in having conferences, but also by letting a playoff determine the ultimate champion. Other leagues have every team play every other, home and away, for a perfectly balanced season with the top squad decided by point total. This year, the MLS sides also played each other home and away, and this balance is why the final regular season rankings aligned so closely with goal differential. LA can be aggrieved that, in any other country, they would be considered the top team after earning the most points over a balanced season.

However, part of the American sports culture is based on titles being earned on the field. Personally, I like it for the unmatched drama and excitement (are you listening, BCS?) but I’m glad MLS at least recognizes the significant achievement of being the best regular season team. What I don’t like is the split into conferences that doesn’t serve any useful function except having #1 Real Salt Lake and #3 FC Dallas meet in the first round of the playoffs! The current system would even allow for a potentially stronger Western Conference team to miss out in favor of a weaker Eastern Conference one. Also, referring to the games as “conference” championships is totally meaningless, as we saw this week. It seems fairer to take the top 8 teams, seeded by point total, and have a normal playoff.

In defense of the conference system, MLS commissioner Don Garber has noted the long travel distances involved in a country the size of America. Considering the drain that long air travel can have on endurance, this is reasonable enough. In addition, he notes that the MLS season is restricted to avoid playing cold weather games, again reasonable after the freezing temperatures in Colorado this past weekend. The problem with these arguments is that they’re invalid this year, and likely next, when MLS gains two expansion teams and adds four games. While the schedule hasn’t been released, another balanced season is likely. Will this change in 2012 when the league expands to 20 teams? We’ll see, but unless they’re going to be segregated by conference in the playoffs, at least seed teams in some meaningful way. It shouldn’t be a reward to earn fewer points: Seattle could be in the title game if they’d lost one more game and gone to the “east.”

Now, on to the matches. In Colorado, freezing temperatures probably took a bit of energy out of both sides but the Rapids were able to take the lead at the stroke of half-time. After pressing for an equalizer at the start of the second half, the altitude began to take a toll on the Earthquakes and they weren’t able to sustain pressure in the last twenty minutes and force overtime. Still, the game provided an interesting contrast between San Jose, who run their attack out the midfield, and the Rapids, whose forwards Conor Casey and Omar Cummings run the show.

Meanwhile at the Home Depot Center, the stars aligned for FC Dallas who demolished a very tired looking LA Galaxy. Perhaps injuries, age, and international duty finally took a toll, as during the regular season the Galaxy had handed Dallas their only home loss and defeated them 2-1 in LA. Of all the teams in the Conference Finals, only FC Dallas looked on their best form, playing impressive team defense throughout the midfield and back lines. Particularly in the middle of the field, the pressure they exerted when LA gained possession denied the Galaxy of easy attacking chances. Dallas only looked vulnerable on a couple of brilliant switches from David Beckham.

Looking forward to the MLS cup final, FC Dallas separated themselves from the Galaxy with their 3-0 road win after the two teams had been tightly packed for most of the season in The Power Rank. In their last two regular season matches, FC Dallas had a combined 4-1 goal disadvantage on the road against the Galaxy and Real Salt Lake. In their away playoff games against both sides, they reversed this figure with a 4-1 goal advantage to trail only RSL in The Power Rank. As such they are quarter goal favorites to win their first MLS Cup. However, when Colorado can’t get the ball up top to their talented playmakers, the Rapids run out of ideas quickly. If Dallas’ midfield can keep up the kind of defensive pressure they’ve been applying thus far, expect it to be a long night for Colorado.

Major League Soccer, Playoff Update

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There’s no phase in sports guaranteed to make physics nerds cringe like “that team has momentum.” When figuring out how a car will drive or an airplane will fly, Newton’s laws tell us what the vehicle’s momentum will be and how we can change it. No equivalent exists in sports, although you wouldn’t know it listening to all the prognosticating that goes on in the media. Just don’t ask anyone to define it. There were worries about Colorado against Columbus because they lost momentum… in the last few minutes of their match against Real Salt Lake. FC Dallas? No chance because they dropped their last two, never mind both were on the road to the only two teams ranked higher than them in the The Power Rank. And let’s not forget Los Angeles Galaxy, top of the table for most of the year but fashionable picks for an early exit against the Seattle Sounders. The only easy pick where the favorite was expected to win was New York over San Jose, but as we’ll see, this also flies counter to the “momentum” argument.

Here at The Power Rank, we know that a sample over a few games isn’t enough to prove anything… but it can be enough to disprove some things. In this case, the question is: can “momentum” at the end of the regular season predict the first playoff results for each team? Well, first we need a definition of momentum, and just in case you think I’m trying to con you, I’ll give you two: points earned over the last 5 games and points earned over the last 10 games. Here you can see the teams ordered by the last 5 games’ momenta.

MLS Teams, Momentum
Both measures give a similar ranking, with only the Rapids leap-frogging LA and Seattle if the last 10 games’ points are considered, and then only by 1 point.

What’s most telling about this ranking is how well it agrees with The Power Rank’s ordering, with only the Sounders and FC Dallas appearing out of place. So you might say ‘ha!’, maybe momentum can beat The Power Rank. Not so fast. A look at the schedule provides a different explanation. In their past 10 games, Seattle was fortunate to only play two playoff teams (Colorado and Salt Lake), thereby racking up points against teams at the bottom of the table. Conversely, Dallas has played six of their last 10 against play-off teams, including LA and Salt Lake on the road. Of their other four games, they picked up three wins and a draw.

Finally, consider the second set of games contributing to the last 10, games 6-10. If we ranked teams based on those 5 games and compared them to The Power Rank, the Sounders come back to earth and LA and Dallas appear as the only aberrations being a bit too low. We’ve already discussed Dallas, but in games 6-10, LA drew the Fire and lost to San Jose, both on the road and both a bit unlucky. So basically, The Power Rank explains most of the trends based on results for the entire season, and the streaks can be attributed to aspects natural to sport: strength of schedule, home field advantage, and of course, a little bit of luck.

So how did the momentum rank do? Well, it did have the Rapids overcoming Columbus, but also New York drawing at San Jose, Seattle getting it done against the Galaxy, and of course, the kings of momentum, Real Salt Lake, should have dominated FC Dallas. It didn’t go down that way, but to be fair, The Power Rank went 2-2 as all home teams were favorites given the ranking. So what’s the difference? The Power Rank is based on what each team earned on the field during the whole season, valuing consistency over finishing the season at home playing bottom table teams. And aside from a few unlucky breaks, we can use The Power Rank to explain almost all the observations about “momentum”. So when it comes time to make your post-season picks, remember your best bet is steady and consistent rather than the current flavor of the week.

This week offers the second legs of the first round playoff matches. Thanks to getting results on the road, the Galaxy and Red Bulls are in good shape to advance to the next round, in line with The Power Rank best estimate. Even though they’re traveling to Columbus, the Rapids are still favored to advance. So what about the matchup predicted by The Power Rank to be the most one-sided? Well, don’t count out the Royal Army of Salt Lake City yet as home field advantage coupled with their top rank gives the defending champs an even chance to advance against a talented Dallas side, especially when considering extra time is played at altitude in beautiful Sandy, Utah. But from the soccer fan’s perspective, the best part is all the ties are only separated by one goal, so we should be in for a weekend of great games. Enjoy!