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MLS Blog 19 October 2011

By Jeremy Templeton Leave a Comment

How to determine
Individual awards?
And do they matter?

As the MLS season enters it’s final week, discussion of season awards begins to dominate the airwaves almost as much as talk of the playoffs.  While the playoffs offer a great spectacle, one has to wonder at the value of individual awards in a team sport.  Of all the player honors MLS hands out, two are clearly the most quantitative: the Golden Boot, going to the player who scores the most goals, and the Goalkeeper of the Year.  Typically, the best keeper judged by some combination of their goals allowed average (GAA) and their number of saves.  The GAA metric is clearly not a function only of the keeper, as a strong defense will prevent shots from even coming his way.  While goals scored and saves made are not perfect measures either, they at least correspond to an action taken by a player (albeit at the discount of actions taken by other players).

So the question is:  does having a player who scores a lot of goals or a keeper who makes a lot of saves correspond to being highly ranked?  To answer that question, we performed a regression of rank versus number of goals scored by the most productive player on a team and the number of saves their keeper made.  For an apples to oranges comparison, we considered the total number of saves rather than that by a single keeper, which is reasonable since most teams rely on just one person between the sticks anyway.  While the correlation coefficient for the number of goals scored by the top goal scorer has a coefficient of 0.023, that number is statistically insignificant (for those who care, the R-squared value is 0.058 and the p-value is 0.33).  What this means is we cannot discern a clear connection between having a one good striker and being highly ranked.  Why?  Well strikers don’t score goals, teams score goals, and the object of soccer is to have the team score a lot, not necessarily an individual.  There is also some evidence from other sports that having one good player actually reduces the value of his teammates (see “Wages of Wins” by David Berri, Martin Schmidt, and Stacey Brook).  So while the Golden Boot is fun for fans, having the winner doesn’t guarantee a successful season.

In contrast, measuring the number of saves by a keeper does have a statistically significant impact (R-squared is 0.34, p-value is 0.011):  it correlates to a lower ranking with a coefficient of -0.009.  The statistics indicate this only accounts for part of a team’s performance, but still this result seems counter-intuitive.  However, the reason is quite clear.  A keeper with a lot of saves is a keeper who gets a lot of opportunities to block shots, hence, someone who’s goal is under a lot of pressure.  So a keeper who saves the average percentage of shots will have more saves if he plays behind a poor defense… but opponents will still score more goals.  Hence, measuring the number of saves is actually a better measurement of the incompetence of the team’s defense rather than the skill of the keeper.

However, we can’t resist suggesting a few players worthy of some accolades.  While the Power Rank can’t determine who generated the most value over the course of the season (yet!), it can suggest places to look.  In addition to providing an absolute rank, a team’s offensive and defensive abilities can be individually assessed.  The top 5 teams in each category are in the tables below, with the value being the expected number of goals scored or conceded against an average opponent. 

Defensively, the LA Galaxy (#1) are best by 0.27 goals, so someone on their defensive side would make sense.  Goalkeepers Donovan Rickets and Josh Saunders essentially split the time this year, and the Galaxy tend not to play with someone in a strictly defensive midfield role.  Therefore center-back Omar Gonzalez seems the best choice of this group as the anchor of their defense.

Meanwhile, the top ranked offense is owned by the Seattle Super Sounders (#2).  In terms of standard statistics, two of their players have distinguished themselves:  Fredy Montero (12 goals, 8 assists) and Mauro Rosales (5 goals, 13 assists).  Because they are both so good, it’s hard to declare one of them as being the most valuable, especially when they are only 0.06 goals better than the next best team, DC United (#12).  While Charlie Davies has scored 11 goals for the Screamin’ Eagles, their side really picked up with the addition of Dwayne Derosario.  The Canadian has scored 12 goals for DC along with 7 assists (he also had 3 goals and 5 assists with Toronto (#18) and New York (#6) this year).  These numbers make him a good choice offensively.  Between the two, Gonzalez would be a better honoree because this has been a defensive season, and LA’s defense is so much better than that of their closest competitor.  However, the MVP is often an “Offensive Player of the Year” award (right, Heisman committee?), and DeRo is the likely recipient if United make the playoffs, while Gonzalez is probably going to receive Defensive Player of the Year honors.

Filed Under: DC United, Los Angeles Galaxy, Seattle Sounders, Soccer

MLS Blog 10/12/11

By Jeremy Templeton Leave a Comment

The MLS rank
Symmetry is beautiful
But not for Canucks

As we approach the end of the regular season, the MLS Power Rank has taken on a very clear form. Los Angeles (#1) and Seattle (#2) form the elite, while RSL (#3) through Kansas City (#6) round out the upper third. The Sounders and Salt Lake are separated by 0.18 goals, while the above average pack of RSL, Philly (#4), New York (#5), and KC are within a mere 0.05 goals of each other. Of these top sides, all but New York are virtually guaranteed of not only making the playoffs, but a first round bye as well. The Red Bulls have a tough road, as they travel to Kansas City and then finish the season hosting the Union, both of which are in the top third.

A gap of 0.1 goals exists between the above average squads and the 7 teams residing squarely in the middle of the Power Rank. These sides, from last year’s runner-up FC Dallas (#7) through Columbus (#13) are all within 0.07 goals of average (always zero). It is these teams that are currently fighting for their playoff lives, with Dallas, defending champs Colorado (#8), Houston (#10), and Columbus currently in, with Chicago (#9) and DC United (#11) on the bubble. Of this group, only Chivas (#12) has been officially eliminated. With a game in hand and 1 point advantage, Dallas is the clear favorite to emerge from the middle, as two of their last three games are against the lowly Earthquakes (#15) and Whitecaps (#16). DC are also in good shape as they have four matches left, with two against fellow middle teams and two against the lower third. Houston, however, may be in trouble. Their season may depend on whether or not LA decides to field their stars in the last game of the regular season in a bid to break the single season points record.

Once again, a 0.1 differential is found between the bastions of mediocrity and those teams that need some work: the bottom third. In this region, there are two teams slightly better than the rest (a relative situation to be sure): Portland (#14) and San Jose (#15). Of the bottom third, only the Timbers still have a shot at the playoffs, but it will be a challenge. Despite having a game in hand, they finish against teams ranked above them. A difference of 0.2 goals divides the top of the bottom from the true cellar of MLS: Vancouver (#16), New England (#17), and Toronto (#18).

The current MLS rank structure is highly symmetric, with gaps of 0.2 and 0.18 goals separating the exceptionally good and bad teams from the rest. Similarly, differences of 0.1 make the top and bottom thirds distinct from the middle. Of the other sports tracked by The Power Rank, only MLB comes at all close to recovering a structure like this, and then only between the distance between the top 5 clubs and all the rest. This clarity just developed this past week because the top three teams all lost by multi-goal margins. LA dropped 0.06 goals after they lost 2-0 to the Red Bulls in New York, while Seattle decreased by 0.09 goals following a 2-0 defeat at home to the Union. Both victors vaulted above KC in The Power Rank to form the above-average-yet-not-elite. To complete this group, Salt Lake suffered the shock defeat of the weekend, falling 3-0 in Vancouver, who were then the lowest ranked team. Their resulting drop of 0.07 goals confirmed that, this year, they are not a truly elite MLS club.

Filed Under: Chivas USA, Colorado Rapids, Columbus Crew, DC United, FC Dallas, Los Angeles Galaxy, Major League Soccer, New York Red Bulls, Philadelphia Union, Real Salt Lake, San Jose Earthquakes, Seattle Sounders, Vancouver Whitecaps

Andy Najar, soccer stud

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Leander Schaerlaeckens wrote a great article for ESPN on Andy Najar, a 17 year old midfielder for DC United who developed through their youth academy.  The existence of these youth academies sponsored by Major League Soccer teams might be the most important aspect of the US effort to win the World Cup in 2018 and 2022.  Promising teenagers work endlessly on their skills while they live at home with their parents, just like their counterparts in Europe.  MLS teams have incentives to develop these academies as the league allows an extra 2 roster spots for graduates and takes a smaller cut of the transfer fee when a player is sold (25% instead of 33%).

Thursday night’s game between DC United and Seattle provided a chance to see Najar in action.  He was clearly the most talented player on the pitch.  Watching his footwork over the ball evoked thoughts of Allen Iverson.  Seriously.  Of course, he disappeared the last 20 minutes of the game; maybe we can cut him a break since he’s 17.  In Sunday’s game against the Los Angeles Galaxy, he rose above the defense and snapped home a header for a goal, an impressive goal for a 5 foot 7 inch midfielder.  Keep an eye on this young man.

Filed Under: DC United, Los Angeles Galaxy, Soccer

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