THE POWER RANK

  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member
  • Log in

MLS 2011 Playoff Preview

By Jeremy Templeton Leave a Comment

MLS playoffs
More parity than last year
Red Bulls as spoilers?

The MLS regular season has ended, so now it’s time to look at what The Power Rank can tell us about the playoffs. First, the good news: despite the point differential between conferences, in which Eastern Conference champions Sporting KC (#3) would have finished 5th in the Western Conference, there’s actually quite a bit of parity between the conferences. It worked out this year that 5 teams from each conference qualified for the playoffs, and indeed 9 of the rank’s top 10 made the playoffs. The lone exception was Columbus (#11) edging out the Fire (#10), but both play in the east.

Now for the bad news: the true elite teams, LA (#1) and Seattle (#2), both reside in the west, so fans will not be treated to a championship game pitting these sides against each other. This fact alone reveals the foolishness of the playoff system in a league in which each team plays every other team exactly twice. Because of this format, The Power Rank shows that the first playoff match featuring New York (#6) traveling to FC Dallas (#8) might be one of the most critical postseason matches. If Dallas wins, then the winner of Columbus at Colorado (#9) will play LA in the Western Conference semifinals. The Galaxy would be expected to score 0.8 more goals than the Rapids and a whopping 0.98 goals more than the Crew over a two game playoff. In contrast, KC would be favored by only 0.34 goals over Dallas.

However, if New York wins, the situation would be quite different. The Red Bulls are the most underrated squad by points based on their rank. Because they took the final playoff spot, if they beat Dallas, they will play LA. Even so, the Galaxy should still have a 0.62 goal advantage, but KC could potentially have as much as 0.56 goal edge if the Crew pull off the upset. In this bizarre scenario, the Galaxy end up with only a slight advantage over Sporting KC despite besting them by 16 points during the regular season.

Of course, a possible playoff round against the New York could be the least of LA’s concerns. In the one guaranteed marquee match up of the conference semifinals, Real Salt Lake (#4) will take on the Seattle Sounders (Seattle has a 0.5 goal advantage), setting up what could be one of the best matches of the playoffs if LA ends up winning their semifinal. Home field advantage for the Galaxy could be crucial as they would only edge the Sounders by the slightest margins on a neutral field: 0.01 goals. The Eastern Conference playoffs should still be exciting, as Philly is only a 0.12 favorite versus Houston, while KC would only have a 0.10 goal margin if the Union emerge from their semifinal. However, as has been the case for the past few years, the Western Conference champion will most likely be deserving of the MLS cup.

Filed Under: Colorado Rapids, Columbus Crew, FC Dallas, Los Angeles Galaxy, Major League Soccer, New York Red Bulls, Philadelphia Union, Real Salt Lake, Seattle Sounders, Soccer, Soccer Analytics

MLS Blog 10/12/11

By Jeremy Templeton Leave a Comment

The MLS rank
Symmetry is beautiful
But not for Canucks

As we approach the end of the regular season, the MLS Power Rank has taken on a very clear form. Los Angeles (#1) and Seattle (#2) form the elite, while RSL (#3) through Kansas City (#6) round out the upper third. The Sounders and Salt Lake are separated by 0.18 goals, while the above average pack of RSL, Philly (#4), New York (#5), and KC are within a mere 0.05 goals of each other. Of these top sides, all but New York are virtually guaranteed of not only making the playoffs, but a first round bye as well. The Red Bulls have a tough road, as they travel to Kansas City and then finish the season hosting the Union, both of which are in the top third.

A gap of 0.1 goals exists between the above average squads and the 7 teams residing squarely in the middle of the Power Rank. These sides, from last year’s runner-up FC Dallas (#7) through Columbus (#13) are all within 0.07 goals of average (always zero). It is these teams that are currently fighting for their playoff lives, with Dallas, defending champs Colorado (#8), Houston (#10), and Columbus currently in, with Chicago (#9) and DC United (#11) on the bubble. Of this group, only Chivas (#12) has been officially eliminated. With a game in hand and 1 point advantage, Dallas is the clear favorite to emerge from the middle, as two of their last three games are against the lowly Earthquakes (#15) and Whitecaps (#16). DC are also in good shape as they have four matches left, with two against fellow middle teams and two against the lower third. Houston, however, may be in trouble. Their season may depend on whether or not LA decides to field their stars in the last game of the regular season in a bid to break the single season points record.

Once again, a 0.1 differential is found between the bastions of mediocrity and those teams that need some work: the bottom third. In this region, there are two teams slightly better than the rest (a relative situation to be sure): Portland (#14) and San Jose (#15). Of the bottom third, only the Timbers still have a shot at the playoffs, but it will be a challenge. Despite having a game in hand, they finish against teams ranked above them. A difference of 0.2 goals divides the top of the bottom from the true cellar of MLS: Vancouver (#16), New England (#17), and Toronto (#18).

The current MLS rank structure is highly symmetric, with gaps of 0.2 and 0.18 goals separating the exceptionally good and bad teams from the rest. Similarly, differences of 0.1 make the top and bottom thirds distinct from the middle. Of the other sports tracked by The Power Rank, only MLB comes at all close to recovering a structure like this, and then only between the distance between the top 5 clubs and all the rest. This clarity just developed this past week because the top three teams all lost by multi-goal margins. LA dropped 0.06 goals after they lost 2-0 to the Red Bulls in New York, while Seattle decreased by 0.09 goals following a 2-0 defeat at home to the Union. Both victors vaulted above KC in The Power Rank to form the above-average-yet-not-elite. To complete this group, Salt Lake suffered the shock defeat of the weekend, falling 3-0 in Vancouver, who were then the lowest ranked team. Their resulting drop of 0.07 goals confirmed that, this year, they are not a truly elite MLS club.

Filed Under: Chivas USA, Colorado Rapids, Columbus Crew, DC United, FC Dallas, Los Angeles Galaxy, Major League Soccer, New York Red Bulls, Philadelphia Union, Real Salt Lake, San Jose Earthquakes, Seattle Sounders, Vancouver Whitecaps

Major League Soccer, Playoff Update

By Jeremy Templeton Leave a Comment

There’s no phase in sports guaranteed to make physics nerds cringe like “that team has momentum.” When figuring out how a car will drive or an airplane will fly, Newton’s laws tell us what the vehicle’s momentum will be and how we can change it. No equivalent exists in sports, although you wouldn’t know it listening to all the prognosticating that goes on in the media. Just don’t ask anyone to define it. There were worries about Colorado against Columbus because they lost momentum… in the last few minutes of their match against Real Salt Lake. FC Dallas? No chance because they dropped their last two, never mind both were on the road to the only two teams ranked higher than them in the The Power Rank. And let’s not forget Los Angeles Galaxy, top of the table for most of the year but fashionable picks for an early exit against the Seattle Sounders. The only easy pick where the favorite was expected to win was New York over San Jose, but as we’ll see, this also flies counter to the “momentum” argument.

Here at The Power Rank, we know that a sample over a few games isn’t enough to prove anything… but it can be enough to disprove some things. In this case, the question is: can “momentum” at the end of the regular season predict the first playoff results for each team? Well, first we need a definition of momentum, and just in case you think I’m trying to con you, I’ll give you two: points earned over the last 5 games and points earned over the last 10 games. Here you can see the teams ordered by the last 5 games’ momenta.

MLS Teams, Momentum
Both measures give a similar ranking, with only the Rapids leap-frogging LA and Seattle if the last 10 games’ points are considered, and then only by 1 point.

What’s most telling about this ranking is how well it agrees with The Power Rank’s ordering, with only the Sounders and FC Dallas appearing out of place. So you might say ‘ha!’, maybe momentum can beat The Power Rank. Not so fast. A look at the schedule provides a different explanation. In their past 10 games, Seattle was fortunate to only play two playoff teams (Colorado and Salt Lake), thereby racking up points against teams at the bottom of the table. Conversely, Dallas has played six of their last 10 against play-off teams, including LA and Salt Lake on the road. Of their other four games, they picked up three wins and a draw.

Finally, consider the second set of games contributing to the last 10, games 6-10. If we ranked teams based on those 5 games and compared them to The Power Rank, the Sounders come back to earth and LA and Dallas appear as the only aberrations being a bit too low. We’ve already discussed Dallas, but in games 6-10, LA drew the Fire and lost to San Jose, both on the road and both a bit unlucky. So basically, The Power Rank explains most of the trends based on results for the entire season, and the streaks can be attributed to aspects natural to sport: strength of schedule, home field advantage, and of course, a little bit of luck.

So how did the momentum rank do? Well, it did have the Rapids overcoming Columbus, but also New York drawing at San Jose, Seattle getting it done against the Galaxy, and of course, the kings of momentum, Real Salt Lake, should have dominated FC Dallas. It didn’t go down that way, but to be fair, The Power Rank went 2-2 as all home teams were favorites given the ranking. So what’s the difference? The Power Rank is based on what each team earned on the field during the whole season, valuing consistency over finishing the season at home playing bottom table teams. And aside from a few unlucky breaks, we can use The Power Rank to explain almost all the observations about “momentum”. So when it comes time to make your post-season picks, remember your best bet is steady and consistent rather than the current flavor of the week.

This week offers the second legs of the first round playoff matches. Thanks to getting results on the road, the Galaxy and Red Bulls are in good shape to advance to the next round, in line with The Power Rank best estimate. Even though they’re traveling to Columbus, the Rapids are still favored to advance. So what about the matchup predicted by The Power Rank to be the most one-sided? Well, don’t count out the Royal Army of Salt Lake City yet as home field advantage coupled with their top rank gives the defending champs an even chance to advance against a talented Dallas side, especially when considering extra time is played at altitude in beautiful Sandy, Utah. But from the soccer fan’s perspective, the best part is all the ties are only separated by one goal, so we should be in for a weekend of great games. Enjoy!

Filed Under: Colorado Rapids, Columbus Crew, FC Dallas, Los Angeles Galaxy, Major League Soccer, New York Red Bulls, Real Salt Lake, San Jose Earthquakes, Seattle Sounders, Soccer

Major League Soccer Playoff Preview

By Dr. Ed Feng 4 Comments

A long time follower of the Power Rank, Jeremy Templeton has graced us with a fascinating preview of the MLS playoffs. Temple, as we call him, is the LeBron James of fluid mechanics and applied mathematics. He also knows his soccer. The Power Rank is in negotiations to make him the MLS correspondent next year.

As we get ready for the MLS post-season, one point is clear: the top two sides won’t meet in the final. The LA Galaxy and Real Salt Lake have occupied the top of the table as well as The Power Rank for most of the season following their contest for the MLS Cup last year. However, the path to success for both squads couldn’t be more different. LA began the season with the highest payroll in the league with designated players David Beckham and Landon Donovan, and only lost that distinction after the Red Bulls bolstered their side with Barcelona leftovers. Complemented with shrewd acquisitions, particularly in the midfield, by Bruce Arenas, the Galaxy follow the formula of many top European clubs by finding the best and paying the best.

One European team that best exemplifies this model for putting quality on the pitch is Real Madrid, who have taken Real Salt Lake on as namesake and affiliate. This is a side with nary a designated player to be found, and under head coach Jason Kreis, have taken a very different approach to team building. Kreis began assembling the nucleus of the team when he transitioned from an RSL player to coach in 2007. While not completely shunning the transfer market, he has kept the core group of players together, given them time to gel, and turned Rio Tinto Stadium into one of the most difficult places to visit in the league. Playing a sport that requires extreme fitness, being conditioned at altitude offers a significant edge. Examining the goal distribution by minute shows RSL scored a disproportionate number of goals in the final fifteen minutes of matches in the last two seasons, which is precisely when teams used to oxygen levels at sea level begin to lose a step. This advantage has enabled RSL to go undefeated at home this season, picking up 11 wins out of 15 matches, and helping them to the best goal differential in the league despite being merely average on the road.

For better or for worse, success in any sport is measured by the number of championships, but looking at RSL forces us to think a bit more about this. While achieving a convincing victory over tournament favorite Columbus last year, it’s impossible not overlook the fact that RSL backed into the playoffs with an incredible amount of luck on the last day of the season, and won the Eastern Conference and MLS championship matches on penalties, hardly the resume of a dominant team. In 2010, things have been different. After a mediocre start marred by poor away form, RSL has been the top team with the best goal differential in the league, despite scoring almost the exact same number of goals last year (43) as this (45). Conventional wisdom says it’s an improved defense, and indeed, it has been difficult for the opposition to put the ball in the back of the net.

But the Royal Army’s improvement is indicative of a trend taking place in MLS over the past few years: a shift from tactics centered on long-balls over the mid field to possessing and passing the ball through the midfield. Last season, RSL was overly dependent on the long ball, while this year they have only used it tactically, instead preferring to let Javier Morales and Kyle Beckerman control the pace of the game in the midfield. One key stat bears out this change: fouls suffered. During the 2009 campaign, no player was fouled more than 30 times and only one (Morales) was fouled more than 20 times. This year, Morales drew a whopping 70 fouls and 5 players drew more than 20. Ball possession in the midfield denies opponents attacking opportunities and provides additional cover for the back four. And by the way, it also provides more scoring chances when the midfielders are fouled in the attacking third; the 2010 season saw RSL score nearly a third of their goals on set pieces.

So which approach is best? Well, Beckham earned his exorbitant salary (possibly) by scoring the equilizer in the final game of the regular season against FC Dallas, giving LA the top seed in the west and preventing a trip to the fortress that is Rio Tinto for the conference championship. But LA is a fashionable pick for a first round upset at the hands of Seattle, due partially to the form which the latter ended the season, but also because of the difficulty they’ve had keeping a clean sheet… at roughly the time Becks returned to the lineup. Beckham is master of the accurate long-ball, and when he’s on the pitch, the Galaxy go that route at the expense of working the ball through the midfield. So will LA’s big spending ways finally pay off? Can Henri win a championship on this side of the pond? Will Real Salt Lake repeat? That’s what makes the playoffs so much fun.

So now, on to The Power Rank playoff best estimate. The end of the regular season rankings roughly follow goal differential, with Seattle being ranked higher at the expense of the Crew. Playoffs in MLS are somewhat bizarre in that the top two teams in each conference getting the top seeds with the remaining four teams filled in with points. This “punishes” the 5th and 6th teams in the West with match-ups against weaker Eastern Conference sides for a home and away series. While playing the second leg at home is awarded to the top seed, we expect this to offer little advantage on aggregate. In the end, expect New York to have a half a goal edge on the Earthquakes, while Colorado would be favored by a third of a goal over the series. Out west, the Galaxy should be half-goal favorites over Seattle while RSL holds the greatest advantage of the first round against FC Dallas at 0.6 goals. The second round is a single game at the highest remaining seed, so the significant home field advantage of soccer comes into play. Therefore, despite being lower ranked by their opponents, the Henri’s and the Beckham’s should meet in the final in which LA wins their first MLS cup in 5 years.

Filed Under: Colorado Rapids, Columbus Crew, FC Dallas, Los Angeles Galaxy, Major League Soccer, New York Red Bulls, Real Salt Lake, San Jose Earthquakes, Seattle Sounders

Major League Soccer Rankings

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

This time of year, top European club soccer teams go abroad to prep for the upcoming season. Teams like Manchester United used to come to the United States and play exhibition games against other European club teams. This summer, they took on teams from Major League Soccer (MLS). After beating the Philadelphia Union, a first year expansion club, Manchester United lost to the Kansas City Wizards, the 12th ranked team in the Power Rank. “The progress is obvious,” said Sir Alex Ferguson, the silver haired dean of European club managers (think of him as the Dean Smith of European club football). “We realized that in the game against Philadelphia and just as much against Kansas City. There’s a massive improvement in the organization and standard of play. That would be the reason I think they’re ready to play the best teams in Europe now.”

The 2-1 result against Kansas City was clearly a statistical abberation, as Manchester United handily defeated a more talented MLS All-Star team a few days later. But it’s worth taking a closer look at the game to see how far MLS has come. Kansas City had a 1-0 lead until defender Jimmy Conrad got a red card for a tackle in the penalty area that led to a goal on a penalty shot. With a tie game and a one man advantage for the remaining 50 minutes, Manchester United clearly had the upper hand. However, Kansas City scored in the very next minute and held off their European competitors in the second half with their backup goal keeper. Not a bad result, especially since Manchester United would not even think about adding single one of Kansas City’s players to its roster.

It’s time to give MLS respect and properly evaluate the teams. The Power Rank shows clear domination from MLS teams in the Western Conference. Los Angeles and Real Salt Lake played for the MLS Cup a year ago and have a good chance of playing for it again. While the Columbus Crew are the only elite team from Eastern Conference, they have the talent to beat any team in MLS. The New York Red Bulls are the most interesting team in the Power Rank. While New York currently sits at second in the Eastern Conference table, the algorithm places them at 11th out of 16 teams and worse than the average MLS team. The Red Bulls recently added French goal scorer Thierry Henry and Mexican defender Rafa Marquez, two players that have recently helped Barcelona emerge as the best club team in the world. The media now consider New York a MLS Cup contender, but their ranking hasn’t budged after two ties against struggling Houston and Chicago. Follow the Power Rank to see how this story unfolds.

The Power Rank for MLS:

1. Los Angeles, 12-3-4, 0.72
2. Real Salt Lake, 10-4-5, 0.67
3. Columbus, 11-4-4, 0.44
4. FC Dallas, 7-2-9, 0.38
5. Colorado, 7-5-6, 0.11
6. Toronto FC, 7-6-5, 0.04
7. San Jose, 6-6-5, 0.02
8. Chicago, 5-5-6, -0.02
9. Seattle, 8-8-4, -0.07
10. Chivas USA, 5-10-3, -0.08
11. New York, 8-6-4, -0.11
12. Kansas City, 5-8-5, -0.19
13. New England, 5-9-3, -0.25
14. Houston, 5-9-5, -0.26
15. Philadelphia, 4-10-3, -0.52
16. DC United, 3-13-3, -0.87

Click here for a graphical view of the rankings, updated weekly.

Filed Under: Columbus Crew, Major League Soccer, Manchester United, New York Red Bulls, Real Salt Lake Tagged With: Real Salt Lake

Data driven betting information

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.

To sign up for The Power Rank's email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"

Popular Articles

  • How to predict interceptions in the NFL
  • 5 insights from academic research on predicting world soccer/football matches
  • How to win your NCAA tournament pool
  • The ultimate guide to predictive college basketball analytics
  • Accurate football predictions with linear regression
  • The surprising truth about passing and rushing in the NFL
  • Football analytics resource guide
  • The Reason You Can’t Avoid The Curse of Small Sample Size
  • The essential guide to predictive CFB rankings
  • How computer rankings make you smarter about sports
  • How to win your college football bowl pool
  • Do you make these 3 mistakes with college football statistics?
  • The Top 10 Things to Know About The Power Rank’s Methods

Recent Articles

  • Podcast: Hitman on NFL betting, Super Bowl LVII
  • Members: Super Bowl game and prop analysis
  • 7-Nugget Saturday, January 28, 2023
  • Cincinnati at Kansas City, AFC Conference Championship Game
  • Podcast: Dr. Eric Eager on the NFL Conference Championships

© 2023 The Power Rank Inc., All rights reserved.

About, Terms of Use, Privacy Policy

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.


These are the goals with every correspondence, which cover bets on the NFL and college football.


To sign up for The Power Rank's free email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"


No thanks, I'll make my predictions without data and analytics.

{"cookieName":"wBounce","isAggressive":false,"isSitewide":true,"hesitation":"","openAnimation":false,"exitAnimation":false,"timer":"","sensitivity":"","cookieExpire":"","cookieDomain":"","autoFire":"","isAnalyticsEnabled":true}
  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member