THE POWER RANK

  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member
  • Log in

Podcast: Ted Knutson on betting, soccer and American football

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Ted Knutson, the CEO of StatsBomb who has also worked a professional bettor and book maker, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include:

  • Magic the Gathering as an entry into the betting world (6:06)
  • How to improve yourself (11:24)
  • Ted’s process as a professional bettor (14:23)
  • Working at Pinnacle sports book (17:20)
  • The soccer market at Pinnacle (23:52)
  • From betting to soccer data and analytics (26:41)
  • The xG model of StatsBomb (33:10)
  • Set pieces in soccer (36:12)
  • World Cup 2022 (40:52)
  • American football data and analytics (43:23)

This was an amazing conversation that has something for everyone, whether your primary interest in data, analytics or betting. To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

This episode of The Football Analytics Show is also available on:

  • YouTube
  • Spotify
  • Apple Podcasts

Support the podcast on Patreon.

Filed Under: Podcast, Soccer Analytics

Podcast: Ryan O’Hanlon on soccer, analytics and World Cup 2022

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Ryan O’Hanlon of ESPN joins the show for a wide ranging conversation on soccer, analytics and the World Cup. Highlights include:

  • The evolution of soccer analytics over the past decade (5:54)
  • His new book Net Gains (14:00)
  • The optimal way to play soccer (19:25)
  • The World Cup favorite (32:26)
  • A World Cup dark horse to win (41:08)
  • USMNT (45:43)
  • The critical concept of xG (54:04)

Ryan’s book Net Gains is amazing, and I think it’s a must read for anyone interested in soccer or analytics. To listen, click on the right pointing triangle.

This episode of The Football Analytics Show is also available on:

  • YouTube
  • Spotify
  • Apple Podcasts

Filed Under: Podcast, Soccer Analytics

Podcast: Mike Goodman on soccer analytics, Euro 2021

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, I’m joined by Mike Goodman, Senior Soccer Editor at CBS and co-host of the Double Pivot podcast.

Among other topics, we discuss:

  • A primer on expected goals, or xG (3:04)
  • The impact of offsides and own goals on xG (10:10)
  • The frontiers of soccer analytics (15:14)
  • Which style of play works best on the international level (18:03)
  • Belgium (24:35)
  • Italy (29:40)
  • Spain (33:25)
  • England (39:40)
  • A surprise team to win Euro (45:00)
  • USMNT (47:08)

Mike is a soccer analytics expert and does an amazing job explaining the concepts.

To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

To listen on Spotify, click here.

To listen on Apple Podcasts, click here.

Filed Under: Podcast, Soccer Analytics, Uncategorized

Podcast: Michael Caley on soccer analytics

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Michael Caley, soccer analytics expert and co-host of the Double Pivot podcast, joins me for a wide ranging discussion. His writing has appeared on FiveThirtyEight, The Athletic, and The Correspondent.

Among other topics, we discuss:

  • The surprising Ph.D. that he earned before getting into soccer analytics (2:17)
  • Expected goals (xG) and future frontiers in soccer analytics (9:47)
  • The excruciating process that goes into calculating expected goals (18:55)
  • The Champions League prospects for Bayern Munich (20:20)
  • The best goal scorers in the game by xG (22:45)
  • How good is Liverpool? (25:39)
  • Is there any hope for USMNT? (27:29)

To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle:

To listen on Apple Podcasts, click here.

The Football Analytics Show is also available on Spotify and Google Podcasts.

Filed Under: Podcast, Soccer Analytics

Win probabilities for the 2015 Gold Cup

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Screen Shot 2015-07-06 at 11.37.32 AMCan the United States win the 2015 Gold Cup?

Winning the Gold Cup means more than than just bragging rights over rival Mexico. With the win, the United States qualifies for the Confederations Cup in 2017, a key tune up tournament for the World Cup in 2018.

If another team wins the Gold Cup, they play a one game playoff against the United States, winner of the 2013 Gold Cup. The winner of this playoff represents North America at the Confederations Cup.

To determine win probabilities for the Gold Cup, I combined three different estimates into an ensemble prediction. Two came from my own calculations that rank international teams on offense and defense (see the bottom of this article), and a third came from the markets.

goldcup2015

The Gold Cup usually comes down to the United States and Mexico, but Costa Rica has emerged as a solid third team that made the final 16 of the World Cup last summer.

Let’s look at these three top contenders. The offense and defense rankings come from The Power Rank algorithm and use international matches since January 1st, 2011.

United States

12th offense, 27th defense

The United States looked fantastic in beating Germany in a friendly last month, and they also beat the Netherlands in another friendly. Both matches took place on European soil.

They need to play well at the start of the Gold Cup as their group has Honduras and Panama, two top 50 teams in my world soccer/football rankings. Meanwhile, Mexico has the dregs of CONCACAF (Guatemala, Trinidad and Tobago, Cuba, all ranked lower than 80th) in their group.

Coach Jurgen Klinsmann left central defender Matt Besler, who started every game of last year’s World Cup, off the Gold Cup roster. John Brooks will most likely start, and let’s hope they can improve a defense that has ranked 27th in the world over the last 4 years.

Mexico

11th offense, 9th defense

By the numbers, Mexico has a slight edge on the United States in my rankings. They don’t have the largest win probability though since the United States will enjoy home field advantage.

I’m not 100% certain the United States should get the full .59 goals for home field. If the United States and Mexico meet in Philadelphia for the final, there will be plenty of Mexican fans wearing green in attendance.

In my ensemble calculations, the market predictions most likely account for the semi-neutral type final in Philadelphia. They gave United States a 38% win probability with Mexico at 36%. The gap was bigger in my two calculations.

For Mexico, striker Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez broke his collar bone and will miss the Gold Cup. He scored 9 goals in 33 matches for Real Madrid last season.

Costa Rica

40th offense, 10th defense

Costa Rica had an amazing World Cup last summer. In winning their group, they sent Italy and England home before the knock out stage. Then they beat Greece to advance to the Round of 16.

Costa Rica relies on its defense, which is ranked 10th in the world over the last 4 seasons. They face a road game against Canada in Toronto in the group stage, but they should win their group before most likely playing the United States in the semi-final.

List of win probabilities for the 2015 Gold Cup

1. United States, 39.1%.
2. Mexico, 33.6%.
3. Costa Rica, 11.7%.
4. Panama, 4.7%.
5. Honduras, 4.7%.
6. Jamaica, 2.3%.
7. Guatemala, 1.8%.
8. Canada, 1.4%.
9. El Salvador, 0.9%.
10. Trinidad and Tobago, 0.7%.
11. Haiti, 0.1%.
12. Cuba, 0.1%.

Filed Under: Costa Rica National Football Team, International Soccer, Mexico National Football Team, Soccer, Soccer Analytics, United States National Soccer / Football Team

Next Page »

Data driven betting information

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.

To sign up for The Power Rank's email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"

Popular Articles

  • How to predict interceptions in the NFL
  • 5 insights from academic research on predicting world soccer/football matches
  • How to win your NCAA tournament pool
  • The ultimate guide to predictive college basketball analytics
  • Accurate football predictions with linear regression
  • The surprising truth about passing and rushing in the NFL
  • Football analytics resource guide
  • The Reason You Can’t Avoid The Curse of Small Sample Size
  • The essential guide to predictive CFB rankings
  • How computer rankings make you smarter about sports
  • How to win your college football bowl pool
  • Do you make these 3 mistakes with college football statistics?
  • The Top 10 Things to Know About The Power Rank’s Methods

Recent Articles

  • Podcast: Hitman on NFL betting, Super Bowl LVII
  • Members: Super Bowl game and prop analysis
  • 7-Nugget Saturday, January 28, 2023
  • Cincinnati at Kansas City, AFC Conference Championship Game
  • Podcast: Dr. Eric Eager on the NFL Conference Championships

© 2023 The Power Rank Inc., All rights reserved.

About, Terms of Use, Privacy Policy

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.


These are the goals with every correspondence, which cover bets on the NFL and college football.


To sign up for The Power Rank's free email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"


No thanks, I'll make my predictions without data and analytics.

{"cookieName":"wBounce","isAggressive":false,"isSitewide":true,"hesitation":"","openAnimation":false,"exitAnimation":false,"timer":"","sensitivity":"","cookieExpire":"","cookieDomain":"","autoFire":"","isAnalyticsEnabled":true}
  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member