Spain didn’t look quite right.

Too many long balls over the top. Too many shots from outside the box. Not enough crisp passing between players forming triangles all over the field.

Did Italy’s defense take Spain out of their game? Probably not, as our algorithm ranks Italy’s defense 25th in the world. This isn’t the type of ranking one expects for a country famous for their catenaccio system.

Maybe it’s just Spain’s first game this tourney. Or maybe this core group of players is past its prime. We’ll find out in their next match against Ireland.

Spain’s odds to win Euro 2012 dropped from 22.6% to 21.5%. This is because Croatia beat Ireland today, putting them in control of this group with Italy and Spain. Croatia’s increased chance of making out of the group stage dropped Spain’s odds of advancing from 83% to 80%.

For our most updated win probabilities, click here to see our interactive bracket.

Thanks for reading.