Podcast: Adam Stanco on predicting March Madness, Part 1

On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, Adam Stanco of the Pac-12 Network joins me to break down the top college basketball teams.  In this first of two episodes, we get into:

  • Duke, with and without Zion Williamson
  • Whether Michigan has enough offense to make a deep tourney run
  • Whether Michigan or Michigan State has a higher ceiling

Adam is a hoops expert and has an uncanny ability to catch things outside the numbers.  Remember, thirty some games is still a small sample size.

There’s also an announcement for my new March Madness audio project.

To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

To listen on Apple Podcasts, click here.

Podcast: Joe Peta on predictive golf analytics

On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, Joe Peta, writer, data scientist and Stanford MBA, joins me.  Joe cut this teeth on baseball analytics but has recently started working on golf with his book A 2019 Masters Preview.

Among other topics, we discuss:

  • The political figure Joe did work for as an accountant (2:35 to start Joe’s story)
  • The Strokes Gained framework for evaluating golfers (8:25)
  • How to predict golf tournaments like the Masters (24:38)
  • Why variance plays a much bigger role in golf than team sports, and how this relates to poker (15:10)
  • Evaluating Tiger Woods, both in the past and into 2019 (32:40)

I’ve always respected Joe’s work, and anyone who likes golf or data should enjoy this conversation.  Also, check out his new book A 2019 Masters Preview, which you can consume in one sitting.

To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

To listen on iTunes, click here.

Podcast: New England, fumbles and the Super Bowl

Back in 2015, Deflategate hit the NFL. Did deflated footballs give New England an advantage over Indianapolis in the AFC championship game?

The number suggested yes. Warren Sharp looked at fumbles and showed that New England led the NFL over the previous 5 seasons.

In this episode of The Football Analytics Show, I look back at the real insights from the fumble data in 2015. New England wasn’t an outlier in fumbles but another turnover metric.

Now, we can look at four more years of fumble data. Did deflated footballs help New England reduce fumbles, an edge now gone? Or is there skill in fumbles, which will help New England in the Super Bowl against the Rams?

To listen, click on the right pointing triangle:

To listen on Apple Podcasts, click here.

To check out the Chase Stuart article on fumbles I discuss, click here.

Podcast: Chris Andrews on predicting the Super Bowl

On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, Chris Andrews, director of the South Point sports book, joins me for a wide ranging discussion.

Among other topics, we discuss:

  • How he uses analytics in bookmaking (5:24)
  • How he approaches Super Bowl props, sharps vs public (12:34)
  • How Chris sets the first college football win totals (17:28)
  • What he means by “an aggressive bookmaker is actually conservative” with New England in the Super Bowl as an example (22:50)
  • What he thinks of bookmakers that swear by the Don Best screen (good for a laugh, 26:40, and continue listening for which way Super Bowl spread will go)

I really enjoyed getting the bookmaker perspective, and I hope you do as well.

To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

To listen on iTunes, click here.

Podcast: Dr. Eric Eager on football analytics, NFL conference championship games

On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, Dr. Eric Eager, data scientist at Pro Football Focus, joins me to talk analytics and make predictions. Eric got his Ph.D. at the University of Nebraska Lincoln and was a professor at the University of Wisconsin La Crosse.

Among other topics, we discuss:

  • whether you need a Ph.D. to do data science in 2019 (7:30)
  • how PFF makes predictions based on charting grades (9:17)
  • the predictive stat for quarterbacks relevant to Tom Brady vs Pat Mahomes (23:28)
  • how to evaluate pass rush better than looking at sacks (30:38)
  • the frontier in football analytics that most excites Eric (35:50)

To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle:

To listen on Apple Podcasts, click here.