Special podcast episode: The Curse of Small Sample Size

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I’m testing a hypothesis this week.

I believe the power of audio is hearing authentic voices.

And not just the voices of experts and professionals, the folks I usually interview on the podcast. The voices of fans.

In this special, story telling episode of The Football Analytics Show, we feature the following folks in discussing small sample size:

  • long suffering Washington Redskins fans
  • a Nebraska fan after their 0-6 start
  • a sports bettor

Humans have an amazing tendency to create a story based on small sample size. One factor makes this worse, and I’m in no way immune from the effects. I tell my story at the end.

To listen, click on the right pointing triangle:

To listen on iTunes, click here.

Filed Under: College Football, National Football League, Podcast

Podcast: Bud Elliott on college football analytics and betting

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On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, I’m joined by Bud Elliott of SB Nation. He’s also the founder of Tomahawk Nation and hosts The Nolecast podcast.

Among other topics, we discuss:

  • How Bud made a name for himself through a Florida State prediction (5:28)
  • How to make success rate an even better efficiency metric (12:15)
  • His process for picking games for his college football betting column (13:45)
  • How a simple metric identifies national title contenders 3 months ago (20:18)
  • The Malcolm Gladwell book that informs his coverage of recruiting (37:00)

With such a wide range of college football knowledge, Bud was a must listen guest.

At the end, I give my own book recommendations.  I forgot to mention that both books are relatively easy reads, good for sneaking in quality literature during busy times.

To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

To listen on iTunes, click here.

Filed Under: College Football, Podcast

Podcast: 3 college football predictions for Thanksgiving week, 2018

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On this short solo episode, I dig 3 fascinating college football stories:

  • The great Alabama versus Michigan debate, and why it’s not much of a debate (0:41)
  • How the markets split a difference in Michigan at Ohio State (5:19)
  • The hilarity in making predictions for Oklahoma at West Virginia (9:06)

To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle:

To listen on iTunes, click here.

Filed Under: College Football, Podcast

Podcast: Jake Williams on sports data and betting

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On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, I talk with Jake Williams, head of legal at Sportradar and host of the Business of Betting podcast.

Among other topics, we talk about:

  • the legal landscape for sports betting in the United States
  • how legalization will impact DFS
  • the new frontiers for sports data, both in media and for sports books
  • the primary lesson from interviewing guests on his Business of Betting podcast

Jake was an awesome guest with wide knowledge inside and outside sports.

To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

To listen on iTunes, click here.

Filed Under: Podcast

Podcast: Michael Lombardi, former NFL GM, on winning in the NFL

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The secret of all victory lies in the organization of the non-obvious.

Marcus Aurelius, Roman emperor

On this episode of The Football Analytics Show, Michael Lombardi, former GM of the Cleveland Brown and assistant coach in New England, joins me to discuss his new book Gridiron Genius.

Among other topics, we discuss:

  • The lessons he learned from Bill Walsh and Bill Belichick on building a culture (2:43)
  • Jim Harbaugh’s overwhelming personality trait, and how he’s doing with the culture at Michigan (5:53)
  • How information and analytics get used for decision making in the NFL (8:50)
  • The overlooked traits in evaluating offensive linemen and cornerbacks (15:54)
  • How bettors can use his book to find an edge (17:22)

I highly recommend reading Gridiron Genius, a well written book from an NFL insider.

To listen here, click on the right pointing triangle.

To listen on iTunes, click here.

Filed Under: National Football League, Podcast
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