THE POWER RANK

  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • CBB Rank
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member
  • Log in

Finally!! Interactive win probabilities for March Madness in February

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

int_bracket_Feb14_2014Do you find bracketology weird?

There’s an industry of people that predict how a committee will seed the NCAA men’s basketball tournament next month.

I get it. Fans want to know whether their team will make the tourney and where they’ll be seeded.

But isn’t the more important question how far your team will advance? Or whether they will win the tourney?

The odds of advancing in the tourney

For the last 2 years, The Power Rank has calculated the odds for each team to advance through the tourney. This starts with the college basketball team rankings, which imply a win probability for each game. The multiplication and addition of these numbers gives the odds for advancing through the rounds.

Usually, these results appear after the bracket is announced on Selection Sunday. However, I thought you might be interested in these results much earlier.

The interactive data visualization shows win probabilities based on ESPN’s bracket projection. Hover over a team to see their probability to advance through each round. Hover over a game to see the odds for each team to win the game. To play with the interactive visual, click here.

Let’s look at few features of these results.

A more competitive tourney

Arizona tops my rankings, and they appear as a one seed in the bracket prediction. However, they have only an 11% chance to win the tourney. To put this in perspective, Kentucky had 16.5% to win the tourney in 2012.

The lower win probability for Arizona results from their rating, or a projected margin of victory against an average college basketball team. Arizona has a rating of 17.8, tops in the nation. However, this rating is more than a point lower than Kentucky in 2012 as they headed into the tourney.

These ratings will change before the tourney starts, but it looks like a more competitive tourney than ever.

The value in Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh had Syracuse on the ropes at home on Wednesday night. They held a one point lead with 4 seconds remaining. But then Syracuse freshman Tyler Ennis hit a dazzling 35 foot shot to win the game.

Pittsburgh got robbed of a big win, sending them down to a 7 seed in this project bracket. However, the Panthers are 16th in The Power Rank. They have a 2% to win it all.

Almost no one will pick Pittsburgh as their champion in your pool. If Pittsburgh does actually win, you stand an excellent chance to win the pool, even if it has up to 100 entries.

However, Pittsburgh was also a good value pick last season, with a 1.5% win probability as an 8 seed. They lost in the first round to Wichita State.

Check out the interactive March Madness bracket

To play with the win probabilities, click here.

Also, I give advice on how to fill out your bracket when the actual bracket is announced. To get this information, sign up for my free email newsletter. Just enter your email address and click on “Sign up now”.








Filed Under: 2014 NCAA Tournament, Arizona Wildcats, Basketball analytics, College Basketball, Pittsburgh Panthers

Can any team challenge Clemson and Florida State? A 2013 ACC college football preview

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

ACC_Odds_2013_ThePowerRankNote from Ed: This is another guest post from Chad Peltier, who penned an awesome SEC preview previously. While the conference win probabilities have changed after week 1, I decided to keep the preseason odds.

The ACC will attempt to fight off a “Big 2, Little 12” reputation with Clemson and Florida State at the top. Miami, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Pitt, Syracuse, and North Carolina all have the skill to make the division races interesting, even if Clemson and Florida State far out-recruit the others.

The Coastal Division is highly unbalanced with both Clemson and FSU at the top. The Atlantic Division has a wider distribution of power between Miami, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, UNC, and Pitt.

The division races are far from certain this season, especially with upstarts in Maryland, Syracuse, and UNC.

Atlantic Division

FLORIDA STATE.

It’s unfortunate that the two best teams in the conference, Florida State and Clemson, are both in the Atlantic Division. One very good team will not make the ACC title game. Florida State has a strong case to be that top team and Atlantic Division representative even with starting a redshirt freshman quarterback in Jameis Winston. Seminole fans have to be excited after glimpsing Winston’s first game and his 93% completion percentage.

With a deep defense buoyed by successive top recruiting classes (particularly in the secondary), Jimbo Fisher will likely be most concerned with his offense in 2013. Winston, a former five-star recruit, is as close to a sure thing as possible. However, the offensive line and receiving core are two possible areas of weakness. The Seminoles are talented in the secondary, at running back, and at linebacker, but match-ups with Clemson and Florida might be tough for this developing team in 2013.

With these match-ups in mind, Florida State is the second-most likely team to win the conference at 23.6%, as well as to win the Atlantic Division, at 36.8%.

CLEMSON.

Once again, Clemson looks to be the class of the conference in 2013. Senior QB Tajh Boyd leads a formidable pass oriented offense that unfortunately lost its top WR DeAndre Hopkins and top RB Andre Ellington.

Many Clemson fans feel comfortable with a receiving core of Sammy Watkins and Charone Peake, and Boyd showed in the Georgia game that he feels comfortable spreading the ball to the large group of receivers. One revelation was senior RB Roderick McDowell, who ran for 132 yards against Georgia’s defense. Offensive coordinator Chad Morris is hoping to run as many plays as possible – hitting 100 during the bowl game with LSU – so what the Tigers may lack in efficiency they can more than make up for in sheer volume of plays.

The greater concern for Clemson may be their defense, especially the back seven. While effective against the run, the Tigers had a penchant for giving up big plays in both the passing game and after running backs hit the second level. This was evident against Georgia, as even an injured Todd Gurley was able to break long runs throughout the night.

Regardless, Clemson faithful have plenty of reasons to be optimistic following their win over Georgia. As it stands now, Clemson remains the most likely conference champion at 32.1% and a 48.1% chance of winning the Atlantic Division.

NORTH CAROLINA STATE.

NC State had a perfectly mediocre 7-6 campaign in 2012, thank-you-very-much. The Wolfpack are without possible Buccaneer starter Mike Glennon at quarterback, but will rely on an experienced (if not overly talented) defensive front seven to keep them in games in 2013.

While the front seven should at least be solid, the inexperienced secondary will likely give up explosive plays to the better quarterbacks in the conference, including Stephen Morris, Logan Thomas, and Bryn Retter.

As a result of the inexperienced secondary and the questions on offense – especially quarterback – the Wolfpack are just the fourth best in the Atlantic Division (behind Syracuse) with a 4% chance to win the division and just a 1.4% shot at the conference title.

SYRACUSE.

Syracuse enters in to a new era with Coach Scott Shafer and new QB (and Oklahoma transfer) Drew Allen. Allen was only decent in a close loss to Penn State, completing less than 50% of his passes for 189 yards.

The secondary limited the defense’s effectiveness in 2012, but intercepted blue chip Penn State quarterback Christian Hackenberg twice. Orange faithful can be pleased with the front seven’s performance against a fairly formidable Nittany Lion run game, which was held to just 57 yards and a 1.5 yard per carry average.

Syracuse certainly won’t be irrelevant in the Atlantic Division and is projected to finish third with a 9.7% chance of winning the division (but just a 4.6% shot at the ACC title).

THE REST.

Boston College, Maryland, and Wake Forest all make up the cellar of the stratified Atlantic Division. Combining for just a .2% shot at the ACC and 1.2% chance to represent the Atlantic Division, things are still fairly grim for these three ACC teams. While all three won their opening day games, they came against the likes of Presbyterian, Villanova, and Florida International.

Maryland might have found a winning combination with Deon Long and Stefon Diggs, a wide receiver tandem that could star at almost any school in the country. QB C.J. Brown had a fantastic start after tearing his ACL last season, completing 20 of 23 passes and not throwing an interception on the day.

Wake will move towards a more running-based team this season, with QB Tanner Price tasked with more rushes and option football than in his previous years with the program.

Boston College was unable to rush the ball with any success in 2012 and is hoping senior QB Chase Rettig will have more help from his running backs this season.

Of the three, look for Maryland to make the most noise this season, with the potential to upset better teams due to its group of skill players.

Coastal Division

VIRGINIA TECH.

Virginia Tech has been on a slide since its excellent 2009 and 2010 campaigns, resulting in an underwhelming 7-6 2012 season. A large part of the problem was that the 2012 offense failed to find an identity under hyped junior quarterback Logan Thomas. Thomas has elite size for a quarterback (as a former tight end), but struggled with accuracy (16 interceptions), sacks, and interceptions. New offensive coordinator and QB guru Scott Loeffler comes to Blacksburg after an extremely disappointing year at Auburn, but many question whether the passing game will improve in 2013.

Despite the offensive woes, it’s certainly not all bad news for Hokie fans. The defense might become an elite unit with a senior-laden line and a young, athletic secondary. Though the Hokies lost to Alabama in the opener, the defense managed to hold the Tide to two offensive scores and A.J. McCarron to a 43% completion percentage.

Led by the defense, the Hokies are a distant fourth to win the conference at 6.9% and second in the Coastal Division at 20%.

NORTH CAROLINA.

Larry Fedora has done an admirable job bringing some measure of respect to the basketball-first school, though the Tarheels will be without their do-everything running back Giovani Bernard. Bernard averaged 6.7 yards per carry for over 1200 yards and almost 500 receiving yards, making him a step better than any other back on the Tarheel’s roster.

QB Bryn Renner was remarkably efficient last season, throwing for 3,300 yards on just seven interceptions, and should carry the fast-paced offense with a deep group of receivers. The concern might be in how well Fedora’s 4-2-5 defense holds up against the spread offenses in the ACC.

With early tough matchups with Miami, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech, the Tarheels have a 17% chance of winning the Coastal Division and a 6% shot at the ACC crown.

GEORGIA TECH.

Tech has been consistently great on offense and mediocre to poor on defense since Paul Johnson began his tenure. That trend looks like it will continue for another season. Tech returns a load of quality running backs to play in the flexbone offense, as well as a more experienced QB Vad Lee and offensive line. Lee was solid against Elon, going 7/11 for 189 yards in 70-0 rout.

After a terrible defensive season under Al Groh, the Jackets hired Ted Roof to install a 4-3 defense, which Tech’s personnel is far more suited for. Elon really never stood a chance, but the Tech defense should get a better test against Duke and North Carolina in the next two weeks.

Georgia Tech as a 17.1% chance to win the Coastal and a 6.8% chance to take home the ACC title.

PITTSBURGH.

The Coastal Division has a more rough balance of power than the Atlantic Division, and Pitt’s entrance into the ACC only underscores that parity. The offensive cast is completely new, with running backs Ray Graham and Rushel Shell are both no longer with the team, quarterback Tino Sunseri has graduated, and the second and third best receivers have graduated as well. There isn’t too much room for optimism over the offense in Paul Chryst’s second season, despite an excellent first quarter against Florida State.

Pitt currently is the fifth-most likely Coastal Division representative, but at 15.7%, isn’t far behind UNC or Georgia Tech. Pitt has just a 6% chance of winning the ACC overall.

MIAMI.

Despite the looming NCAA investigation, Miami generated a lot of hype behind the stellar late season play from QB Stephen Morris and freshman running back Duke Johnson. Johnson in particular lived up to his recruiting hype as an electric kick returner and pounding running back, despite being no taller than 5-9. The Miami offensive line is one of the most veteran units in the country and shouldn’t have too much trouble opening holes for Duke or protecting Morris.

However, the defense has an inexperienced secondary and might struggle with more dynamic offenses like UNC, Georgia Tech, and Florida State. Nonetheless, Miami’s offense should put them at the front of the pack in the Coastal Division, with a 27.5% chance to take the Coastal Division and a 11.9% chance to win the ACC (which is third behind Atlantic Division probables Clemson and Florida State).

THE REST.

Duke and Virginia have just a .5% chance of winning the ACC (and a 2.7% shot at the Coastal title), but should both be better than the Atlantic cellar-dwellers Boston College, Maryland, and Wake Forest.

Duke returns a surprisingly deep cast of running backs, while also adding freshman four-star recruit Shaw Powell to run behind the veteran offensive line. The ground game won’t be the problem for the Blue Devils in their quest for bowl eligibility – that will likely be the passing game, which lost its quarterback and top wide receiver to graduation. Duke took the first step towards 6 wins in week one, beating NC Central 45-0.

Virginia’s 4-8 2012 campaign was disappointing after a promising series of recruiting classes and a decent 2011 season. This year’s offense will look much different after the graduation and transfer of the top two QBs. The Cavs managed to beat a decent BYU defense without many offensive fireworks, but should begin to work freshman five-star recruit Taquan “Smoke” Mizzell in at running back.

Filed Under: Clemson Tigers, College Football, College Football 2013, College Football Analytics, Florida State Seminoles, North Carolina Tar Heels, Pittsburgh Panthers, Syracuse Orangemen, Virginia Tech Hokies

Check Out The 2013 Interactive Bracket for March Madness

By Dr. Ed Feng 1 Comment

The Power Rank calculates the 416 win probabilities for March Madness, 2012.With every passing day in March, college basketball heats up that much more. Basketball junkies like us only have 16 days left until the committee announces the field of 68.

However, we couldn’t wait that long to see who would win the tourney. We took Jerry Palm’s bracket predictions from yesterday and calculated the win probabilities for each team to advance through each round. These odds are based on our college basketball team rankings, which give a win probability for each game.

We show these numbers in our interactive bracket (click here to open it up in a new tab). To unveil the win probabilities for a team to advance, hover over the team name. To discover the odds that a team wins a game, hover over the circle for that game.

Last year, Amy Nelson of SB Nation made this awesome video about our analytics and this interactive visualization.

You should draw your own conclusion from this year’s numbers. These 3 things jumped out at us.

Florida has largest chance of winning the tourney

What? The Gator team that has dropped 3 games in a weak SEC conference? The team that’s only 11th in the AP poll has a 12.8% chance of winning the tourney?

Florida is the top team in our college basketball rankings. Despite being more than a point and half better than even Indiana, they have lost 5 games this year because of their love affair with the 3 point shot. Over 40% of their shots come from behind the arc. Most nights, they shoot pretty well, hitting 38.4% of their 3’s for the season. However, they can also die by the 3.

Florida’s chance at winning the tourney would be even higher had Palm not put them in the Region of Death. The East region has Duke, Michigan and Syracuse in addition to Florida, all top 10 teams in The Power Rank. The committee takes geography into account when determining the bracket. Since most of the best college basketball teams are east of the Mississippi River, the bracket has regions of vastly differing strength.

Pittsburgh in the West

If the East is the Region of Death, then the West is the Region of Eternal Life. Due to geography considerations, the West has Gonzaga, New Mexico and Arizona as the top 3 seeds. While our numbers love Gonzaga (#3), New Mexico and Arizona are 19th and 15th respectively. One would expect the worst 2 and 3 seed to have a rank of 8th and 12th.

This unbalanced bracket opens the door for Pittsburgh, the 5 seed in the West. After an uncharacteristically poor season last year, the Panthers have surged back on the national scene with coach Jamie Dixon. Ranked 12th in The Power Rank, they have a 10.9% chance of making the Final 4 out of the West. It’s not as high as Gonzaga’s 25.3% chance, but it’s higher than most “experts” will give them.

First round upsets

The Madness of March starts that first Thursday (or Friday on a weird year) of the tourney when higher seeded teams get upset by double digit seeded teams. In Palm’s bracket, Oregon and Butler look most vulnerable.

Oregon has been overrated all year, rising to 19th in the most recent AP poll but only 49th in The Power Rank. They got exposed last night at Colorado, losing by 23. Wichita State has a 55% chance of upsetting Oregon in the first round.

Most people remember Butler for their consecutive championship game appearances from a few years back. However, this year’s team doesn’t have the same defensive toughness as those teams. Middle Tennessee State, who was our highest ranked team not to make last year’s tourney, has a 51% chance of knocking off Butler in the first round.

Interactive Bracket

What jumps out at you in our numbers? (Here’s that link to the interactive bracket again.) Let us know in the comments.

Thanks for reading.

Filed Under: 2013 NCAA Tournament, Amy Nelson, Basketball analytics, Butler Bulldogs, College Basketball, Florida Gators, Oregon Ducks, Pittsburgh Panthers, Wichita State Shockers

Sweet Sixteen Predictions, 2011 Tournament

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

We were out dinner during the Pittsburgh Butler game last Saturday night. As the clock wound down, I did what any self respecting Dad would do and picked up my son out of his high chair so he could watch the game. Eli would have none of it. All through the last ten seconds of the game, which saw an amazing play for the go ahead layup by Butler and two controversial fouls, Eli kicked and fussed, clearly upset about my insistence that he watched this game. He didn’t seem to understand that he would ask me about this night a decade from now. Really, people thought Pitt was a bunch of chokers before Jamie Dixon’s team won a national championship? After the game, we headed out to my mother-in-law’s van to head home. Since Eli crawled into the back seat to play with some toys, I headed back to the restaurant to use the restroom. As soon as I left, he crawls up into his car seat and says “Bye, Daddy.” So much for showing my two year son the glory of March Madness.

In the Round of 64 and 32, The Power Rank went 24 for 42 against the line with 1 push and 5 games in which our prediction was too close to the line. That’s a 57.1% winning percentage. We found the wins by Butler, Michigan, Marquette and George Mason in the Round of 64 particularly gratifying, as The Power Rank called these winners while Vegas listed them as underdogs. However, we were humbled by the spectacular play of VCU and Florida State on Sunday night. Here are our Mountain West flavored predictions for the Sweet Sixteen:

San Diego State will beat Connecticut by 2.0

Duke will beat Arizona by 6.8

Brigham Young will beat Florida by 2.4, upset by lower seed.

Wisconsin will beat Butler by 4.6

Kansas will beat Richmond by 6.7

Florida State will beat VCU by 0.1

North Carolina will beat Marquette by 1.4

Ohio State will beat Kentucky by 5.1

Filed Under: 2011 NCAA Tournament, Butler Bulldogs, Duke Blue Devils, Pittsburgh Panthers

Predictions for 2nd Round of 2011 NCAA Tournament

By Dr. Ed Feng Leave a Comment

Here are the predicted outcomes for this weekend’s games. The only upset is Washington over North Carolina by a slim half point. Can the veteran Husky squad beat the young Tar Heels? Otherwise, Kansas and Pittsburgh look like the most likely 1 seed to go down this round, although they are predicted to win by 4.9 over Illinois and 6.5 over Butler respectively. Last year, Kansas looked sluggish in a first round win over Lehigh and then went down to Northern Iowa in the second round. This year, Boston University was only down 4 at the half to Kansas. As for Pittsburgh versus Butler, it won’t be a pretty game, as both teams are well known for grinding out wins defensively. Butler has not had the greatest season, and guard Shelvin Mack looks like he lost his jumper in the off season, but the Bulldogs still gutted out the win against Old Dominion on Thursday.

Richmond will beat Morehead State by 3.0

San Diego State will beat Temple by 5.5

Connecticut will beat Cincinnati by 1.9

Kentucky will beat West Virginia by 3.0

Florida will beat UCLA by 2.9

Pittsburgh will beat Butler by 6.5

Brigham Young will beat Gonzaga by 4.9

Wisconsin will beat Kansas State by 4.1

Purdue will beat VCU by 7.9

Kansas will beat Illinois by 4.9

Notre Dame will beat Florida State by 5.2

Texas will beat Arizona by 4.9

Duke will beat Michigan by 7.1

Syracuse will beat Marquette by 1.5

Ohio State will beat George Mason by 8.2

Washington will beat North Carolina by 0.5

Predictions were 16 of 29 against the line in the first round for a 55% winning percentage.

Filed Under: 2011 NCAA Tournament, College Basketball, Kansas Jayhawks, North Carolina Tar Heels, Pittsburgh Panthers, Washington Huskies

Data driven betting information

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.

To sign up for The Power Rank's email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"

Popular Articles

  • How to predict interceptions in the NFL
  • 5 insights from academic research on predicting world soccer/football matches
  • How to win your NCAA tournament pool
  • The ultimate guide to predictive college basketball analytics
  • Accurate football predictions with linear regression
  • The surprising truth about passing and rushing in the NFL
  • Football analytics resource guide
  • The Reason You Can’t Avoid The Curse of Small Sample Size
  • The essential guide to predictive CFB rankings
  • How computer rankings make you smarter about sports
  • How to win your college football bowl pool
  • Do you make these 3 mistakes with college football statistics?
  • The Top 10 Things to Know About The Power Rank’s Methods

Recent Articles

  • 7-Nugget Saturday, February 4, 2023
  • Podcast: Hitman on NFL betting, Super Bowl LVII
  • Members: Super Bowl game and prop analysis
  • 7-Nugget Saturday, January 28, 2023
  • Cincinnati at Kansas City, AFC Conference Championship Game

© 2023 The Power Rank Inc., All rights reserved.

About, Terms of Use, Privacy Policy

Smarter sports betting in less than 5 minutes

Valuable. Concise. Entertaining.


These are the goals with every correspondence, which cover bets on the NFL and college football.


To sign up for The Power Rank's free email newsletter, enter your best email and click on "Sign up now!"


No thanks, I'll make my predictions without data and analytics.

{"cookieName":"wBounce","isAggressive":false,"isSitewide":true,"hesitation":"","openAnimation":false,"exitAnimation":false,"timer":"","sensitivity":"","cookieExpire":"","cookieDomain":"","autoFire":"","isAnalyticsEnabled":true}
  • About
    • About The Power Rank
    • Start Here
    • Contact
  • Predictions
    • Games
    • March Madness
  • Content
    • Must Read
    • Blog
    • Podcast
    • The Craft of Sports Betting Professionals
    • March Madness Book
  • Rankings
    • World Soccer/Football
    • College Basketball
    • College Football
    • NFL
    • NFL passing success rate
    • MLB
    • Cluster Luck
  • Members
    • CBB Rank
    • My Account
    • Login
    • Become a member